By Billy House
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WASHINGTON – Will Mitt Romney revitalize his flagging presidential campaign with a win in today's Michigan's GOP primary?
Or will John McCain seize victory instead, and in doing so grab the mantle of front-runner in what so far has been a fractured field of Republican candidates?
“I wouldn’t try to predict who’ll win,” said pollster John Zogby.
The stakes are high but the race is too close to call, he said.
And it's made more unpredictable with the possibility that significant numbers of Democrats going to the polls today may cross party lines and vote for a Republican, Zogby said.
In a twist, blogger Markos Moulitsas (of the Daily Kos, the nation’s largest Democratic blog) is calling on Michigan Democrats to vote for Romney, not McCain, as a way to hurt the GOP’s chances for the White House this fall.
“Bottom line, if Romney loses Michigan, he’s out. If he wins, he stays in,” writes Kos.
“And we want Romney in, because the more Republican candidates we have fighting it out, trashing each other with negative ads and spending tons of money, the better it is for us,” adds Kos. “We want Mitt to stay in the race, and to do that, we need him to win Michigan.”
Romney himself insists he won’t quit the race even is he loses Michigan; he’s promising to go on to South Carolina’s Jan. 19 GOP primary, Florida’s Jan. 29 primary, and then the Feb. 5 GOP primaries in 21 states.
But one thing is certain; today’s results are critical for Romney.
Once seen as a GOP presidential frontrunner, the former Massachusetts governor finished second in the Iowa caucuses to Mike Huckabee, and second in the New Hampshire primary to McCain.
Romney technically leads in the number of delegates in hand. But he desperately needs to show that he can win a big state – especially a state where he has favorite-son credentials. Romney was born in Michigan, and it is the state where his father, George Romney, served as a governor in the 1960s.
But McCain won the state's primary eight years ago with the help of Democratic and independent voters, and he has taken back the lead in the national polls that he enjoyed months ago.
Polls leading up to today’s voting show a tight race. The Detroit Free Press on Sunday released its final pre-primary poll, showing Romney leading McCain among Republican primary voters 27 percent to 22 percent, with former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee at 16 percent.
And a Mason and Dixon Polling and Research poll released on Sunday that had Romney leading McCain among Republican primary voters 30 percent to 22 percent, with Huckabee at 17 percent.
In battling for the hearts of Michigan’s primary voters, Romney and McCain have taken different approaches.
Most of the attention has been on their back-and-forth that began last week when the Arizona senator reacted to Romney’s talk about reviving some Michigan industries, particularly the struggling auto industry. McCain suggested some industries simply can’t be resurrected.
“I've got to give you some straight talk: Some of the jobs that have left the state of Michigan are not coming back,'’ McCain said, in widely reported comments. McCain explained he is just being realistic, and that new types of jobs need to be created.
In several not-so-veiled swipes at McCain, Romney said his presidency would not only shun such pessimism -- but also do something to turn the auto industry around.
“The last thing you need in a state like Michigan is more pessimism …,” Romney said.
And there were late signs that Romney’s tact was causing McCain’s “straight talk” in Michigan to take a U-Turn.
By Saturday, The Detroit News was quoting McCain as saying, “We can restore Detroit’s supremacy … I’m optimistic.”
But in a Monday speech, Romney continued to highlight his optimism, versus the what he called the pessimism of others.
"Washington politicians look at Michigan and see a rust belt. But the real rust is in Washington," Romney said.
How this will play out today is uncertain, said Zogby. Romney has a slight lead in polling of Michigan Republicans, but cross-over Democratic and independent voters are the wildcards.
Romney himself explained on Sunday, in an appearance on CBS News’ Face the Nation, Michigan’s GOP primary is not limited to Republicans, as independents and Democrats also can choose to cast their ballots in the race.
“I plan on winning Michigan, and there's no question, if it were just Republicans and independents, I'd win Michigan. But Democrats also get to vote in the primary here, so you can't be 100 percent sure,” Romney said.
Zogby agrees that in this GOP showdown, Democrats, ironically, could be the key.
About 17 percent of the Democratic turnout today is expected to vote in the Republican primary – and McCain’s lead among Democrats is about 2-1, Zogby said.
But unlike 2000, when McCain won the state’s open primary with the help of Democrats and independent voters against then-Texas Gov. George Bush, that Democratic and independent vote this year may not be as organized.
“There’s nothing similar this year to the organized UAW (United Auto Workers) effort that was out there for McCain in 2000,” Zogby said.
On the other hand, Zogby says he’s not sure the Daily Kos’ call for Democrats to vote for Romney will carry much weight.
The Democratic side of the primary has generated less interest because Hillary Clinton is the only top tier candidate on the ballot and no delegates are at stake.
Reporter Billy House can be reached a bhouse@mediageneral.com or at (202) 662-7673.
Or will John McCain seize victory instead, and in doing so grab the mantle of front-runner in what so far has been a fractured field of Republican candidates?
“I wouldn’t try to predict who’ll win,” said pollster John Zogby.
The stakes are high but the race is too close to call, he said.
And it's made more unpredictable with the possibility that significant numbers of Democrats going to the polls today may cross party lines and vote for a Republican, Zogby said.
In a twist, blogger Markos Moulitsas (of the Daily Kos, the nation’s largest Democratic blog) is calling on Michigan Democrats to vote for Romney, not McCain, as a way to hurt the GOP’s chances for the White House this fall.
“Bottom line, if Romney loses Michigan, he’s out. If he wins, he stays in,” writes Kos.
“And we want Romney in, because the more Republican candidates we have fighting it out, trashing each other with negative ads and spending tons of money, the better it is for us,” adds Kos. “We want Mitt to stay in the race, and to do that, we need him to win Michigan.”
Romney himself insists he won’t quit the race even is he loses Michigan; he’s promising to go on to South Carolina’s Jan. 19 GOP primary, Florida’s Jan. 29 primary, and then the Feb. 5 GOP primaries in 21 states.
But one thing is certain; today’s results are critical for Romney.
Once seen as a GOP presidential frontrunner, the former Massachusetts governor finished second in the Iowa caucuses to Mike Huckabee, and second in the New Hampshire primary to McCain.
Romney technically leads in the number of delegates in hand. But he desperately needs to show that he can win a big state – especially a state where he has favorite-son credentials. Romney was born in Michigan, and it is the state where his father, George Romney, served as a governor in the 1960s.
But McCain won the state's primary eight years ago with the help of Democratic and independent voters, and he has taken back the lead in the national polls that he enjoyed months ago.
Polls leading up to today’s voting show a tight race. The Detroit Free Press on Sunday released its final pre-primary poll, showing Romney leading McCain among Republican primary voters 27 percent to 22 percent, with former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee at 16 percent.
And a Mason and Dixon Polling and Research poll released on Sunday that had Romney leading McCain among Republican primary voters 30 percent to 22 percent, with Huckabee at 17 percent.
In battling for the hearts of Michigan’s primary voters, Romney and McCain have taken different approaches.
Most of the attention has been on their back-and-forth that began last week when the Arizona senator reacted to Romney’s talk about reviving some Michigan industries, particularly the struggling auto industry. McCain suggested some industries simply can’t be resurrected.
“I've got to give you some straight talk: Some of the jobs that have left the state of Michigan are not coming back,'’ McCain said, in widely reported comments. McCain explained he is just being realistic, and that new types of jobs need to be created.
In several not-so-veiled swipes at McCain, Romney said his presidency would not only shun such pessimism -- but also do something to turn the auto industry around.
“The last thing you need in a state like Michigan is more pessimism …,” Romney said.
And there were late signs that Romney’s tact was causing McCain’s “straight talk” in Michigan to take a U-Turn.
By Saturday, The Detroit News was quoting McCain as saying, “We can restore Detroit’s supremacy … I’m optimistic.”
But in a Monday speech, Romney continued to highlight his optimism, versus the what he called the pessimism of others.
"Washington politicians look at Michigan and see a rust belt. But the real rust is in Washington," Romney said.
How this will play out today is uncertain, said Zogby. Romney has a slight lead in polling of Michigan Republicans, but cross-over Democratic and independent voters are the wildcards.
Romney himself explained on Sunday, in an appearance on CBS News’ Face the Nation, Michigan’s GOP primary is not limited to Republicans, as independents and Democrats also can choose to cast their ballots in the race.
“I plan on winning Michigan, and there's no question, if it were just Republicans and independents, I'd win Michigan. But Democrats also get to vote in the primary here, so you can't be 100 percent sure,” Romney said.
Zogby agrees that in this GOP showdown, Democrats, ironically, could be the key.
About 17 percent of the Democratic turnout today is expected to vote in the Republican primary – and McCain’s lead among Democrats is about 2-1, Zogby said.
But unlike 2000, when McCain won the state’s open primary with the help of Democrats and independent voters against then-Texas Gov. George Bush, that Democratic and independent vote this year may not be as organized.
“There’s nothing similar this year to the organized UAW (United Auto Workers) effort that was out there for McCain in 2000,” Zogby said.
On the other hand, Zogby says he’s not sure the Daily Kos’ call for Democrats to vote for Romney will carry much weight.
The Democratic side of the primary has generated less interest because Hillary Clinton is the only top tier candidate on the ballot and no delegates are at stake.
Reporter Billy House can be reached a bhouse@mediageneral.com or at (202) 662-7673.