By James Romoser, Winston-Salem Journal
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RALEIGH John Edwards, a former U.S. senator from North Carolina, did not get the first-place result he was hoping for in last night’s Iowa caucuses, but campaign advisers and independent analysts said that he remains a contender for the Democratic presidential nomination.
“It’s too early, it seems to me, to crown anyone the nominee. And Sen. Edwards has still got an uphill climb. He didn’t come in first. But he didn’t fall back into the second tier either,” said Ferrel Guillory, an expert on Southern politics at UNC Chapel Hill.
Preliminary results showed Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois winning in Iowa, the first state in the nation to select delegates to the presidential nominating conventions this summer. Edwards and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York were in a virtual tie, close behind Obama.
Since 2004, when Edwards made his first run for president and ultimately became John Kerry’s running mate, Edwards has laid the groundwork in Iowa for another run in 2008. He has visited the state frequently, and more so than his two chief rivals, he was counting on a strong finish in the Iowa caucuses to propel him in New Hampshire and other early nominating states, where polls show him trailing Obama and Clinton.
Joe Trippi, Edwards’ senior adviser, said that the Iowa results show that the Democratic race is a three-way contest, not simply a slugfest between the better-financed Obama and Clinton.
“It’s a strong night for us. I think it’s really a repudiation of the status quo in Washington and the Clinton campaign,” Trippi said in an interview with NBC News.
Edwards has campaigned aggressively in Iowa recently, spending nearly all of his time barnstorming the state. Yesterday, he made last-minute campaign stops, rallying campaign volunteers in such cities as Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.
For weeks, the state has been saturated by political advertising and campaign rallies.
“The best North Carolina analogy is kind of like going to the ACC Tournament. And on every corner, you see a fan for a different candidate instead of a fan for a different team,” said Ed Turlington in a phone interview from Iowa. Turlington, a Raleigh lawyer, was the national chairman of Edwards’ 2004 presidential campaign and is advising the campaign this year.
Although no hard numbers were available at press time, nearly every report from on the ground in Iowa indicated that turnout among Democratic caucus-goers was exceptionally high.
Leading up to caucus night, a high turnout was expected to be more favorable to Edwards’ chief rivals.
That’s because the Clinton campaign was counting on attracting middle-aged and senior women who have never caucused before, while Obama has appealed to college students, independents and even some Republicans. (Independents and Republicans are allowed to caucus on the Democratic side if they switch their party affiliation on caucus night.)
Edwards, meanwhile, has focused on a more traditional Democratic base: union members and Democratic activists, including many of the same people who caucused for him in 2004, when he made his first run for president.
Analysts also closely watched the “second-choice” factor. Under Iowa Democratic Party rules, a candidate must receive at least 15 percent support in a precinct’s caucus for the candidate to be deemed “viable” in that precinct. If a candidate does not meet the viability threshold in a particular precinct, that candidate’s supporters can realign to other candidates.
Recent Iowa polls have showed that Edwards was frequently mentioned as the second choice of caucusgoers whose first-choice candidates were likely to fall short of viability in many precincts.
But Obama was also reaching out to that same group of caucusgoers.
James Romoser can be reached at 919-210-6794 or at jromoser@wsjournal.com.
“It’s too early, it seems to me, to crown anyone the nominee. And Sen. Edwards has still got an uphill climb. He didn’t come in first. But he didn’t fall back into the second tier either,” said Ferrel Guillory, an expert on Southern politics at UNC Chapel Hill.
Preliminary results showed Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois winning in Iowa, the first state in the nation to select delegates to the presidential nominating conventions this summer. Edwards and Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York were in a virtual tie, close behind Obama.
Since 2004, when Edwards made his first run for president and ultimately became John Kerry’s running mate, Edwards has laid the groundwork in Iowa for another run in 2008. He has visited the state frequently, and more so than his two chief rivals, he was counting on a strong finish in the Iowa caucuses to propel him in New Hampshire and other early nominating states, where polls show him trailing Obama and Clinton.
Joe Trippi, Edwards’ senior adviser, said that the Iowa results show that the Democratic race is a three-way contest, not simply a slugfest between the better-financed Obama and Clinton.
“It’s a strong night for us. I think it’s really a repudiation of the status quo in Washington and the Clinton campaign,” Trippi said in an interview with NBC News.
Edwards has campaigned aggressively in Iowa recently, spending nearly all of his time barnstorming the state. Yesterday, he made last-minute campaign stops, rallying campaign volunteers in such cities as Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.
For weeks, the state has been saturated by political advertising and campaign rallies.
“The best North Carolina analogy is kind of like going to the ACC Tournament. And on every corner, you see a fan for a different candidate instead of a fan for a different team,” said Ed Turlington in a phone interview from Iowa. Turlington, a Raleigh lawyer, was the national chairman of Edwards’ 2004 presidential campaign and is advising the campaign this year.
Although no hard numbers were available at press time, nearly every report from on the ground in Iowa indicated that turnout among Democratic caucus-goers was exceptionally high.
Leading up to caucus night, a high turnout was expected to be more favorable to Edwards’ chief rivals.
That’s because the Clinton campaign was counting on attracting middle-aged and senior women who have never caucused before, while Obama has appealed to college students, independents and even some Republicans. (Independents and Republicans are allowed to caucus on the Democratic side if they switch their party affiliation on caucus night.)
Edwards, meanwhile, has focused on a more traditional Democratic base: union members and Democratic activists, including many of the same people who caucused for him in 2004, when he made his first run for president.
Analysts also closely watched the “second-choice” factor. Under Iowa Democratic Party rules, a candidate must receive at least 15 percent support in a precinct’s caucus for the candidate to be deemed “viable” in that precinct. If a candidate does not meet the viability threshold in a particular precinct, that candidate’s supporters can realign to other candidates.
Recent Iowa polls have showed that Edwards was frequently mentioned as the second choice of caucusgoers whose first-choice candidates were likely to fall short of viability in many precincts.
But Obama was also reaching out to that same group of caucusgoers.
James Romoser can be reached at 919-210-6794 or at jromoser@wsjournal.com.