By Billy House
Media General News Service
Media General News Service
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WASHINGTON – John McCain has risen dramatically, while Rudy Giuliani has taken a significant tumble, in new polling of Florida Republicans that shows the state’s Jan. 29 GOP primary is now a statistical tie among four candidates.
The Quinnipiac University poll of likely Republican voters shows McCain with the support of 22 percent of the party’s primary voters, with Giuliani at 20 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are at 19 percent each.
Released this morning, the survey of 421 likely GOP voters from Jan. 9-13 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
For Giuliani, the poll spells trouble.
The former New York City mayor decided not to campaign vigorously in Iowa or New Hampshire and instead has staked his campaign’s fortune’s on Florida, and then the 22 states that hold their primaries on Feb. 5.
But this strategy left him out of the top three GOP vote-getters in either of those earlier contests, and he has received virtually no news attention while his competitors have been making headlines.
“Giuliani is showing the negative effects of poor finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, while McCain’s jump is not unexpected given his New Hampshire victory,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. He said Giuliani's lead in Florida has "evaporated."
Since Quinnipiac’s last poll on Dec. 20, McCain has picked up 9 percentage points, while Giuliani has lost 8 percentage points.
Huckabee has seen his standing drop from 21 percent to 19 percent since Dec. 20., while Romney has seen his drop from 20 percent to 19 percent.
“The Republican race is a dead heat with all four major contenders within three points of first place,” said Brown.
What happens in the coming days in the Michigan and South Carolina primaries will likely have a major effect on which of the four wins Florida’s 57 delegates, in the state’s winner-take-all contest, said Brown.
On the Democratic side, the poll’s survey of 421 likely Democratic primary voters shows that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s substantial lead in Florida over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama continues, at 52-31; former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is at 9 percent.
Billy House can be reached at bhouse@mediageneral.com or a (202) 662-7673.
The Quinnipiac University poll of likely Republican voters shows McCain with the support of 22 percent of the party’s primary voters, with Giuliani at 20 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee are at 19 percent each.
Released this morning, the survey of 421 likely GOP voters from Jan. 9-13 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
For Giuliani, the poll spells trouble.
The former New York City mayor decided not to campaign vigorously in Iowa or New Hampshire and instead has staked his campaign’s fortune’s on Florida, and then the 22 states that hold their primaries on Feb. 5.
But this strategy left him out of the top three GOP vote-getters in either of those earlier contests, and he has received virtually no news attention while his competitors have been making headlines.
“Giuliani is showing the negative effects of poor finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, while McCain’s jump is not unexpected given his New Hampshire victory,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. He said Giuliani's lead in Florida has "evaporated."
Since Quinnipiac’s last poll on Dec. 20, McCain has picked up 9 percentage points, while Giuliani has lost 8 percentage points.
Huckabee has seen his standing drop from 21 percent to 19 percent since Dec. 20., while Romney has seen his drop from 20 percent to 19 percent.
“The Republican race is a dead heat with all four major contenders within three points of first place,” said Brown.
What happens in the coming days in the Michigan and South Carolina primaries will likely have a major effect on which of the four wins Florida’s 57 delegates, in the state’s winner-take-all contest, said Brown.
On the Democratic side, the poll’s survey of 421 likely Democratic primary voters shows that New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s substantial lead in Florida over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama continues, at 52-31; former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is at 9 percent.
Billy House can be reached at bhouse@mediageneral.com or a (202) 662-7673.