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BY AMY DOMINELLO
Media General News Service
WASHINGTON – Mississippi hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 20 years, but Democrats think that could change in November.
The race to fill the remaining four years of former Sen. Trent Lott’s term pits a former governor, Ronnie Musgrove, against Roger Wicker, a congressman who was appointed to the seat after Lott resigned in December.
Musgrove is a Democrat and Wicker a Republican, but voters won’t necessarily know that when they’re in the voting booth, thanks to a quirk in the state election law. Because it’s a special election to fill out the remainder of Lott’s term, neither candidate’s party affiliation will be on the ballot.
Both candidates’ names are familiar in Mississippi. Musgrove was governor from 2000 through 2003. Wicker was first elected to Congress from the 1st District in 1994.
But the absence of a D or R by their names is an X factor in the race.
“Democrats think that’s something that benefits them,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the Cook Political Report who analyzes Senate races throughout the country.
“What it does mean for Senator Wicker is he really needs to increase his name I.D. because voters will not be able to rely on party,” she said.
Duffy said the May win by Democrat Travis Childers in a special election for Wicker’s old House seat in north Mississippi is a warning flag for Republicans.
“That Democrats were able to pick it up should have sent a big warning sign to Senator Wicker about his challenge in the fall,” she said.
The November election will not only decide who occupies the seat through 2012. Mississippi could have a significant impact on party politics in the Senate, Duffy said.
“Today Democrats have a one seat majority in the Senate,” she said. “Their aim in this election cycle is to increase that margin as much as possible … So they have recruited a strong candidate for this race and they are going to put resources here.”
Matthew Miller, communications director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the race is critical and offers voters a stark contrast.
“I think Mississippi has a chance to change the way the country’s headed,” he said.
Nationwide, Republicans are facing a tough election year. Sen. John Ensign, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the GOP is on defense and he’s hoping to hold Republican losses to three or four of the 35 Senate contests throughout the country.
But Ensign, of Nevada, said the Mississippi seat is one the Republicans can hold onto. He does not include the race in the 10 he expects to be competitive.
“But it’s definitely a race to keep our eye on,” he conceded.
Wicker has outpaced Musgrove in fundraising. Although new campaign finance numbers are due to be released at the end of June, Wicker is already far ahead.
“Roger Wicker is an A-plus candidate,” Ensign said. “He is absolutely doing a fabulous job. He’s raising a lot of money. He’s got a great team put together. He is working his rear-end off down in Mississippi.”
According to campaign finance records, Wicker has taken in nearly $3.1 million and had $2.8 million available to spend as of the end of March. Musgrove had raised $447,000 with $337,000 available to spend.
Wicker has already put out two television ads, focusing on the funds the north Mississippi congressman helped secure for the state after Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005.
But Miller said Musgrove’s message and time as governor may do more to sway voters.
“Money isn’t everything in politics,” he said. “Certainly message is important. Roger Wicker has always been good at raising money from lobbyists … But with raising all that money from lobbyists, you have to answer to voters about how you served.”
Mississippi has voted for Republicans in the last seven presidential elections and Republicans have held both Senate seats since Lott was elected in 1988.
But Musgrove has a proven ability to draw votes, said Merle Black, who teaches politics and government at Emory University and specializes in Southern politics.
“He’s probably the strongest candidate the Democrats could put up,” Black said. “I think that looks like a very competitive race.”
Republican Ensign said having Barack Obama at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket will end up hurting conservative Democrats in places like Mississippi.
Emory University’s Black said conservative Democrats may be reluctant to campaign with Obama because he is seen as too liberal. But if Musgrove does campaign with Obama, it would signal that the Democrats are running well in Mississippi, Black said.
A poll released in May by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee shows Musgrove with an eight point lead over Wicker, 48 percent to 40 percent.
“This race will certainly, probably get ugly,” Duffy said. “But I don’t think you’re really going to see that until the fall.”
Contact Amy Dominello at 202-662-7671 or adominello@mediageneral.com
On the Web:
Musgrove for Senate
Wicker for Senate
Media General News Service
WASHINGTON – Mississippi hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate in 20 years, but Democrats think that could change in November.
The race to fill the remaining four years of former Sen. Trent Lott’s term pits a former governor, Ronnie Musgrove, against Roger Wicker, a congressman who was appointed to the seat after Lott resigned in December.
Musgrove is a Democrat and Wicker a Republican, but voters won’t necessarily know that when they’re in the voting booth, thanks to a quirk in the state election law. Because it’s a special election to fill out the remainder of Lott’s term, neither candidate’s party affiliation will be on the ballot.
Both candidates’ names are familiar in Mississippi. Musgrove was governor from 2000 through 2003. Wicker was first elected to Congress from the 1st District in 1994.
But the absence of a D or R by their names is an X factor in the race.
“Democrats think that’s something that benefits them,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the Cook Political Report who analyzes Senate races throughout the country.
“What it does mean for Senator Wicker is he really needs to increase his name I.D. because voters will not be able to rely on party,” she said.
Duffy said the May win by Democrat Travis Childers in a special election for Wicker’s old House seat in north Mississippi is a warning flag for Republicans.
“That Democrats were able to pick it up should have sent a big warning sign to Senator Wicker about his challenge in the fall,” she said.
The November election will not only decide who occupies the seat through 2012. Mississippi could have a significant impact on party politics in the Senate, Duffy said.
“Today Democrats have a one seat majority in the Senate,” she said. “Their aim in this election cycle is to increase that margin as much as possible … So they have recruited a strong candidate for this race and they are going to put resources here.”
Matthew Miller, communications director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the race is critical and offers voters a stark contrast.
“I think Mississippi has a chance to change the way the country’s headed,” he said.
Nationwide, Republicans are facing a tough election year. Sen. John Ensign, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the GOP is on defense and he’s hoping to hold Republican losses to three or four of the 35 Senate contests throughout the country.
But Ensign, of Nevada, said the Mississippi seat is one the Republicans can hold onto. He does not include the race in the 10 he expects to be competitive.
“But it’s definitely a race to keep our eye on,” he conceded.
Wicker has outpaced Musgrove in fundraising. Although new campaign finance numbers are due to be released at the end of June, Wicker is already far ahead.
“Roger Wicker is an A-plus candidate,” Ensign said. “He is absolutely doing a fabulous job. He’s raising a lot of money. He’s got a great team put together. He is working his rear-end off down in Mississippi.”
According to campaign finance records, Wicker has taken in nearly $3.1 million and had $2.8 million available to spend as of the end of March. Musgrove had raised $447,000 with $337,000 available to spend.
Wicker has already put out two television ads, focusing on the funds the north Mississippi congressman helped secure for the state after Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005.
But Miller said Musgrove’s message and time as governor may do more to sway voters.
“Money isn’t everything in politics,” he said. “Certainly message is important. Roger Wicker has always been good at raising money from lobbyists … But with raising all that money from lobbyists, you have to answer to voters about how you served.”
Mississippi has voted for Republicans in the last seven presidential elections and Republicans have held both Senate seats since Lott was elected in 1988.
But Musgrove has a proven ability to draw votes, said Merle Black, who teaches politics and government at Emory University and specializes in Southern politics.
“He’s probably the strongest candidate the Democrats could put up,” Black said. “I think that looks like a very competitive race.”
Republican Ensign said having Barack Obama at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket will end up hurting conservative Democrats in places like Mississippi.
Emory University’s Black said conservative Democrats may be reluctant to campaign with Obama because he is seen as too liberal. But if Musgrove does campaign with Obama, it would signal that the Democrats are running well in Mississippi, Black said.
A poll released in May by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee shows Musgrove with an eight point lead over Wicker, 48 percent to 40 percent.
“This race will certainly, probably get ugly,” Duffy said. “But I don’t think you’re really going to see that until the fall.”
Contact Amy Dominello at 202-662-7671 or adominello@mediageneral.com
On the Web:
Musgrove for Senate
Wicker for Senate