S.C. could see bellwether status slip away

By Sean Mussenden
Media General News Service

January 19 2008 | text size: small medium large

COLUMBIA, S.C. -- Forget Iowa and New Hampshire.

For almost three decades, voters in South Carolina have played kingmaker in the Republican presidential race. From Ronald Reagan to George W. Bush, every candidate that has won here went on to secure their party’s nomination.

There’s a good chance that streak will end with Saturday’s primary, political analysts said, because of dramatic changes in the primary calendar this year that could minimize South Carolina’s historical importance.

“It’s not a given this year. It appears that the campaign will continue on from here,” said Todd Shaw, a political scientist at the University of South Carolina.
Since South Carolina’s first GOP primary in 1980, its location – in the South, a crucial region for Republicans – and particular mix of religious and fiscal conservatives have made it a key proving ground for the party.

Iowa – which former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won this year – and New Hampshire – which went to Arizona Sen. John McCain – have had less success in predicting the nominee.

“South Carolina mirrors the deep South, and as the deep South goes, so goes the Republican party,” Shaw said.

That has held true in the past. But several factors could reduce the state’s importance this year.

Three different Republicans have won the first four contests. (Mitt Romney won Michigan’s primary and Wyoming’s caucuses). Because of that uncertainty, campaigns are already looking ahead to Feb. 5, Super Tuesday.

Voters in more than 20 states – including California and New York – will go to the polls that day. And Florida, not South Carolina, will hold the last primary on Jan. 29 heading into Super Tuesday. (Maine holds caucuses on Feb. 1).

That could make Florida this year’s South Carolina, said Aubrey Jewett, a political scientist at the University of Central Florida.

Polls show that the three candidates who won the early contests have a strong chance to win Florida, along with former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani has campaigned almost exclusively in Florida this month.

The state will provide one of the last chances to pick up momentum heading into Super Tuesday.

As a whole, Florida is more representative of the country’s political landscape than South Carolina. That has made it an important swing state in the last two elections. Jewett said he expects the candidate who wins Florida will argue that the victory shows they are best suited to win in November.

“Whichever candidate can win Florida will have the best claim of electability,” he said.
Many elected officials in South Carolina dispute that the state will prove less influential this year than in the past.

Florida might be more representative of the country’s politics than South Carolina. But Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said that taken together, moderate New Hampshire Republicans and conservatives in South Carolina “provide a pretty good” representation of the party as a whole.

Graham, who is supporting McCain, said that if his candidate repeats his New Hampshire victory here, it will foretell a strong showing in Florida and on Super Tuesday.

Polls in South Carolina this week showed McCain with a slight lead over Huckabee, with Romney and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson running third and fourth.

“The person who wins South Carolina could just as easily win the nomination as they could be knocked off on Super Tuesday,” said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Furman University in South Carolina. “If they win the nomination, Republicans here will be serendipitous. If not, the spell will be broken, and we’ll see how important the state is in 2012.”

(Sean Mussenden can be reached at smussenden@mediageneral.com or 202-662-7668).