By BILLY HOUSE/Media General News Service
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TAMPA -- Conscientious? Indecisive? Politically clueless? Longing for some other presidential choice?
Or a group of people who may not even show up to vote?
“I'm a mess,” confesses Lauren Tobin of South Tampa. She says she'll definitely vote. She just doesn't know for whom.
Tobin, 48, a registered Republican who has a 10-year-old son and a background in health care, is not alone in her struggle to decide between John McCain or Barack Obama.
Polls show that as much as 7 percent of Florida voters – similar to the percentages found in national polling – have yet to make up their minds as the presidential campaign enters its final days.
“I'm probably not going to decide until I'm in there (voting booth), about to pull the trigger,” said Tobin.
While pollsters may differ a bit on the exact number of these hard-core fence-sitters, this much is clear: The outcome of a close race in Florida could hinge on a bunch of voters who, as of now, still cannot choose.
Given the stakes, both campaigns are aggressively seeking to court these voters in eleventh-hour local appearances, TV ads and telephone canvassing.
Just who are these voters?
“Some like both candidates. Some don't like either,” national pollster John Zogby said on Tuesday.
“History tells us that, by and large, about two-thirds of them will actually show up to vote and when they decide, they will break largely one way,” he said.
A poll released last Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. reported McCain holding a 46 percent to 45 percent lead among Florida voters. But the poll also showed that 7 percent of voters remained uncommitted.
A Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll a day later showed Obama leading in Florida 49-44 percent. That survey also showed 7 percent of voters remained uncommitted.
Various other national polls show a similar amount of undecided voters across the nation, including a Pew Research Center for People and the Press poll last week that reported about 8 percent of registered votes are uncommitted.
Independent analysts say there's really no way to confidently predict that these undecided voters will break more toward either McCain or Obama.
But Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., and Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown both said that an incumbent historically has had an advantage over a lesser-known challenger with late-deciding voters.
And while McCain is not actually an incumbent president, they said, he does represent the incumbent party.
“If Obama hasn't convinced these people to trust him more than McCain at this point, then he likely won't in the next few days,” said Miringoff.
However, Miringoff also said a number of other factors could wind up hurting McCain with these voters if he is viewed as the incumbent -- including the nation's economic worries and concern the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Tobin said her relatives in Connecticut favor Obama and are pushing her in that direction, while her friends in the Tampa Bay area are pushing her in another.
She rattled off a list of important issues, such as national security and the economy, and says she has been trying to determine which candidate would do a better job on each.
“But I'm still so wishy-washy. I'm so torn,” admits Tobin, who voted for George W. Bush for president in 2000 and Democrat John Kerry in 2004,
For instance, she said, national security concerns are prominent in her decision-making, in part because her son “could go to war down the road.”
“There is a sense that with McCain in office, we will be more feared,” she said.
“On the other hand,” she said, “Obama is more of a diplomat.”
“But his lack of experience scares me.”
Tobin, who favors abortion rights, also is concerned about the future of Roe v. Wade if McCain is elected and gets to pick new Supreme Court justices.
Even so, Tobin lets on that she had been leaning toward McCain – that is, until his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as a running mate.
“That's when I found myself really between a rock and a hard place,” she said. “She just seems a little too plastic, sort of a Stepford Wife.”
Port Richey resident David Chalmers, 63, a health technician and father of two children is registered to vote as an independent. He hasn't yet made up his mind because, “I haven't really heard what I need to hear from either of them.”
“I'm not certain what, but something that will convince me who is the right one to lead,” said Chalmers.
He said the depiction of McCain as a great leader simply because he was a prisoner of war is something he takes issue with. But he also regarded Obama “as too soft and afraid to get out there and do the things that a president needs to do.”
Chalmers, a Air Force veteran of Vietnam, voted for President Bush's re-election in 2004, but for Democrat Gore in 2000.
But having once voted for Ross Perot for president, Chalmers said he's now looking at some of this year's third-party candidates, as well.
However, he said he's also giving Obama a second look because in recent days “I've seen more passion and fire from him.”
Reporter Billy House can be reached at bhouse@mediageneral.com or at (202) 641-5080.
Or a group of people who may not even show up to vote?
“I'm a mess,” confesses Lauren Tobin of South Tampa. She says she'll definitely vote. She just doesn't know for whom.
Tobin, 48, a registered Republican who has a 10-year-old son and a background in health care, is not alone in her struggle to decide between John McCain or Barack Obama.
Polls show that as much as 7 percent of Florida voters – similar to the percentages found in national polling – have yet to make up their minds as the presidential campaign enters its final days.
“I'm probably not going to decide until I'm in there (voting booth), about to pull the trigger,” said Tobin.
While pollsters may differ a bit on the exact number of these hard-core fence-sitters, this much is clear: The outcome of a close race in Florida could hinge on a bunch of voters who, as of now, still cannot choose.
Given the stakes, both campaigns are aggressively seeking to court these voters in eleventh-hour local appearances, TV ads and telephone canvassing.
Just who are these voters?
“Some like both candidates. Some don't like either,” national pollster John Zogby said on Tuesday.
“History tells us that, by and large, about two-thirds of them will actually show up to vote and when they decide, they will break largely one way,” he said.
A poll released last Wednesday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. reported McCain holding a 46 percent to 45 percent lead among Florida voters. But the poll also showed that 7 percent of voters remained uncommitted.
A Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll a day later showed Obama leading in Florida 49-44 percent. That survey also showed 7 percent of voters remained uncommitted.
Various other national polls show a similar amount of undecided voters across the nation, including a Pew Research Center for People and the Press poll last week that reported about 8 percent of registered votes are uncommitted.
Independent analysts say there's really no way to confidently predict that these undecided voters will break more toward either McCain or Obama.
But Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., and Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown both said that an incumbent historically has had an advantage over a lesser-known challenger with late-deciding voters.
And while McCain is not actually an incumbent president, they said, he does represent the incumbent party.
“If Obama hasn't convinced these people to trust him more than McCain at this point, then he likely won't in the next few days,” said Miringoff.
However, Miringoff also said a number of other factors could wind up hurting McCain with these voters if he is viewed as the incumbent -- including the nation's economic worries and concern the country is headed in the wrong direction.
Tobin said her relatives in Connecticut favor Obama and are pushing her in that direction, while her friends in the Tampa Bay area are pushing her in another.
She rattled off a list of important issues, such as national security and the economy, and says she has been trying to determine which candidate would do a better job on each.
“But I'm still so wishy-washy. I'm so torn,” admits Tobin, who voted for George W. Bush for president in 2000 and Democrat John Kerry in 2004,
For instance, she said, national security concerns are prominent in her decision-making, in part because her son “could go to war down the road.”
“There is a sense that with McCain in office, we will be more feared,” she said.
“On the other hand,” she said, “Obama is more of a diplomat.”
“But his lack of experience scares me.”
Tobin, who favors abortion rights, also is concerned about the future of Roe v. Wade if McCain is elected and gets to pick new Supreme Court justices.
Even so, Tobin lets on that she had been leaning toward McCain – that is, until his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as a running mate.
“That's when I found myself really between a rock and a hard place,” she said. “She just seems a little too plastic, sort of a Stepford Wife.”
Port Richey resident David Chalmers, 63, a health technician and father of two children is registered to vote as an independent. He hasn't yet made up his mind because, “I haven't really heard what I need to hear from either of them.”
“I'm not certain what, but something that will convince me who is the right one to lead,” said Chalmers.
He said the depiction of McCain as a great leader simply because he was a prisoner of war is something he takes issue with. But he also regarded Obama “as too soft and afraid to get out there and do the things that a president needs to do.”
Chalmers, a Air Force veteran of Vietnam, voted for President Bush's re-election in 2004, but for Democrat Gore in 2000.
But having once voted for Ross Perot for president, Chalmers said he's now looking at some of this year's third-party candidates, as well.
However, he said he's also giving Obama a second look because in recent days “I've seen more passion and fire from him.”
Reporter Billy House can be reached at bhouse@mediageneral.com or at (202) 641-5080.