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WASHINGTON – There’s no question Barack Obama will make history on Tuesday as the first black man to become president.
His candidacy and election were made possible in part because of the many blacks elected to office at lower levels of government; but there’s still room for some improvement there, analysts and politicians say.
At the congressional and statehouse levels, the numbers of black elected officials have stagnated in the past decade.
In state capitols throughout the country, the number of legislators has not been able to move above about 8 percent, according to statistics from the National Conference of State Legislatures. Census numbers show blacks making up 13 percent of the U.S. population.
In Congress this year, there are 41 black members of the 435-members House, or 9 percent, and one black senator out of 100. That number has also remained static over the past decade.
Some frustrations came to the forefront last week as Roland Burris attempted to replace Obama in the Senate. While many felt the appointment was tainted because it was done by a governor who has been indicted, it brought a spotlight to a lack of diversity in the Senate.
“Even though the context he was appointed in was not the most ideal, there was a frustration that there are no blacks in the Senate,” said Ronald Walters, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland who worked for the 1984 and 1988 presidential campaigns of Jesse Jackson.
Part of the reason there hasn’t been much movement is that the number of majority-black districts that can be drawn for statehouse and congressional seats has maxed out, said David A. Bositis, a senior policy analyst for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington.
“There are limits in terms of how congressional districts are drawn,” he said.
In coming years, Democratic leaders aren’t likely to tinker with majority black districts in ways that might spread out the black population when they redraw district lines, said Kerry Haynie, an associate professor of political science at Duke University.
“The risk of having fewer black faces in Congress is great,” he said. “I’m not sure states are going to mess around with that.”
But, observers say, Obama paves the way for more blacks to win statewide office such as senator or governor.
More and more, Bositis said, white voters are willing to vote for black candidates. That will continue to lead to increase in black representation in the South and throughout the country.
Obama has also created a new game plan, Haynie said.
For black candidates like Rep. Artur Davis, D-Ala., who plans to run for governor, Obama offers a model for black politicians running statewide campaigns, he said.
“What remains to be seen is whether the machine and operation will remain fully intact,” Haynie said. “It’s a very good ground game and if the machine goes to work for other candidates you could see some changes.”
Redistricting, when states redraw congressional and statehouse districts after the results of the 2010 Census are released, will also impact the makeup of political officeholders.
Former Virginia Governor Doug Wilder, the first black to be elected governor in the country, learned that was true when he was able to push for the creation of seats that would be favorable to blacks during redistricting in the early 1990s.
In the next election after redistricting, he said, the number of black members in the statehouse increased and Virginia elected its first black person to Congress since Reconstruction.
Observers say while Obama had a negligible effect on changing the racial makeup of Congress and statehouses throughout the country in 2008, it will have an effect in years to come.
Obama’s election will inspire a new generation of African Americans and younger people in general to take up the mantle of public service, said Joyce Beatty, a former Ohio state representative and the first black woman to hold the position of House Democratic Leader.
“You’ll see an increase in numbers because more people will want to do it and it will be more acceptable for hard-working, smart African-Americans,” she said.
Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., said the numbers are less important than the work being done.
“We overstate the importance of the numbers game but forget we’re here to develop and put in place policies to do things such as end poverty,” he said. “That’s what we’ve got to do.”
Contact Amy Dominello at 202-662-7671 or adominello@mediageneral.com
Black federal lawmakers (House and Senate)
Year: 1959
Number: 4
Year: 1969
Number: 11
Year: 1979
Number: 18
Year: 1989
Number: 25
Year: 1999
Number: 39
Year: 2009
Number: 42
Source: U.S. House of Representatives, Office of the Clerk
Chart from National Conference of State Legislators
His candidacy and election were made possible in part because of the many blacks elected to office at lower levels of government; but there’s still room for some improvement there, analysts and politicians say.
At the congressional and statehouse levels, the numbers of black elected officials have stagnated in the past decade.
In state capitols throughout the country, the number of legislators has not been able to move above about 8 percent, according to statistics from the National Conference of State Legislatures. Census numbers show blacks making up 13 percent of the U.S. population.
In Congress this year, there are 41 black members of the 435-members House, or 9 percent, and one black senator out of 100. That number has also remained static over the past decade.
Some frustrations came to the forefront last week as Roland Burris attempted to replace Obama in the Senate. While many felt the appointment was tainted because it was done by a governor who has been indicted, it brought a spotlight to a lack of diversity in the Senate.
“Even though the context he was appointed in was not the most ideal, there was a frustration that there are no blacks in the Senate,” said Ronald Walters, a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland who worked for the 1984 and 1988 presidential campaigns of Jesse Jackson.
Part of the reason there hasn’t been much movement is that the number of majority-black districts that can be drawn for statehouse and congressional seats has maxed out, said David A. Bositis, a senior policy analyst for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies in Washington.
“There are limits in terms of how congressional districts are drawn,” he said.
In coming years, Democratic leaders aren’t likely to tinker with majority black districts in ways that might spread out the black population when they redraw district lines, said Kerry Haynie, an associate professor of political science at Duke University.
“The risk of having fewer black faces in Congress is great,” he said. “I’m not sure states are going to mess around with that.”
But, observers say, Obama paves the way for more blacks to win statewide office such as senator or governor.
More and more, Bositis said, white voters are willing to vote for black candidates. That will continue to lead to increase in black representation in the South and throughout the country.
Obama has also created a new game plan, Haynie said.
For black candidates like Rep. Artur Davis, D-Ala., who plans to run for governor, Obama offers a model for black politicians running statewide campaigns, he said.
“What remains to be seen is whether the machine and operation will remain fully intact,” Haynie said. “It’s a very good ground game and if the machine goes to work for other candidates you could see some changes.”
Redistricting, when states redraw congressional and statehouse districts after the results of the 2010 Census are released, will also impact the makeup of political officeholders.
Former Virginia Governor Doug Wilder, the first black to be elected governor in the country, learned that was true when he was able to push for the creation of seats that would be favorable to blacks during redistricting in the early 1990s.
In the next election after redistricting, he said, the number of black members in the statehouse increased and Virginia elected its first black person to Congress since Reconstruction.
Observers say while Obama had a negligible effect on changing the racial makeup of Congress and statehouses throughout the country in 2008, it will have an effect in years to come.
Obama’s election will inspire a new generation of African Americans and younger people in general to take up the mantle of public service, said Joyce Beatty, a former Ohio state representative and the first black woman to hold the position of House Democratic Leader.
“You’ll see an increase in numbers because more people will want to do it and it will be more acceptable for hard-working, smart African-Americans,” she said.
Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., said the numbers are less important than the work being done.
“We overstate the importance of the numbers game but forget we’re here to develop and put in place policies to do things such as end poverty,” he said. “That’s what we’ve got to do.”
Contact Amy Dominello at 202-662-7671 or adominello@mediageneral.com
Black federal lawmakers (House and Senate)
Year: 1959
Number: 4
Year: 1969
Number: 11
Year: 1979
Number: 18
Year: 1989
Number: 25
Year: 1999
Number: 39
Year: 2009
Number: 42
Source: U.S. House of Representatives, Office of the Clerk
Chart from National Conference of State Legislators
