By Sean Mussenden
Media General News Service
Media General News Service
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WASHINGTON—Barack Obama was running slightly ahead of John McCain early Wednesday morning in his bid to become the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter to win North Carolina.
With 98 percent of precincts reporting and more than 4 million votes cast, Obama led McCain by 14,000 votes in a state that has sided with every Republican presidential candidate since 1980.
No Democrat had seriously competed in North Carolina since 1992, when Bill Clinton lost the state by a point. But economic woes and recent demographic shifts — an influx of younger, college educated voters in particular — put the state in play this year.
“The expanded population of ‘new economy’ workers, who are not part of the old political construct of the state, were persuadable, and Obama made a big effort to persuade them,” said Ferrel Guillory, a political scientist at UNC Chapel Hill.
Both campaigns fought hard over the last month to capture the state’s 15 electoral votes, as the Obama campaign battled to break the larger Republican stranglehold on the south.
Both candidates and their vice-presidential picks – Sen. Joe Biden for Obama and Gov. Sarah Palin for McCain – made repeated trips to North Carolina after the party conventions. To direct voter turnout efforts, Obama opened 50 offices across the state, compared with 35 for McCain, and both candidates spent heavily on television advertising, particularly Obama.
In early October, Obama was outspending McCain on TV ads in the state by an 8-to-1 ratio, according to the Wisconsin Advertising Project. During the last week of October, McCain narrowed that gap, spending about half as much as Obama on TV ads — $537,000 to $1.09 million.
For all the excitement of the last month, though, in the end the state did not prove pivotal to the outcome of the race. McCain conceded the election to Obama before the outcome in North Carolina was known.
With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Obama had 2,098,401 votes to McCain’s 2,084,344 votes in the state. It was one of three battleground states – along with Indiana and Missouri – that major news organizations had not called by early Wednesday morning.
The closeness of the race represented a significant departure from recent presidential campaigns, when candidates from both parties paid little attention to North Carolina. In 2004, John Kerry was blown out by George W. Bush, losing 56 percent to 43 percent.
One reason Obama was able to vastly improve upon Kerry’s performance was his showing with white voters, a key voting block in the state. In 2004, Kerry won only 27 percent of white voters, compared with 37 percent for Obama this year, exit polls showed.
Typically, Democrats running statewide in North Carolina need to secure about 40 of the white vote to win the state, strategists said. But a major boost in turnout this year by African-American voters — 97 percent of whom voted for Obama, according to exit polls — inspired by Obama’s historic candidacy lessened the importance of the white vote slightly.
Given the loss of Ohio and other states that voted for George W. Bush in 2004, McCain desperately needed to hold onto North Carolina. One reason he was able to fend off Obama’s challenge was his strength with independent voters.
McCain won independents 56 percent to 43 percent in North Carolina, according to exit polls. And he did better than Bush in the conservative, mountainous Western part of the state.
But he did worse than Bush in nearly every other region of the state. For example, In the Eastern part of the state, Bush got six of 10 votes in 2004. This year, Obama got six of 10 votes in that region.
Sean Mussenden can be reached at 202 662-7668 or at smussenden@mediageneral.com.
With 98 percent of precincts reporting and more than 4 million votes cast, Obama led McCain by 14,000 votes in a state that has sided with every Republican presidential candidate since 1980.
No Democrat had seriously competed in North Carolina since 1992, when Bill Clinton lost the state by a point. But economic woes and recent demographic shifts — an influx of younger, college educated voters in particular — put the state in play this year.
“The expanded population of ‘new economy’ workers, who are not part of the old political construct of the state, were persuadable, and Obama made a big effort to persuade them,” said Ferrel Guillory, a political scientist at UNC Chapel Hill.
Both campaigns fought hard over the last month to capture the state’s 15 electoral votes, as the Obama campaign battled to break the larger Republican stranglehold on the south.
Both candidates and their vice-presidential picks – Sen. Joe Biden for Obama and Gov. Sarah Palin for McCain – made repeated trips to North Carolina after the party conventions. To direct voter turnout efforts, Obama opened 50 offices across the state, compared with 35 for McCain, and both candidates spent heavily on television advertising, particularly Obama.
In early October, Obama was outspending McCain on TV ads in the state by an 8-to-1 ratio, according to the Wisconsin Advertising Project. During the last week of October, McCain narrowed that gap, spending about half as much as Obama on TV ads — $537,000 to $1.09 million.
For all the excitement of the last month, though, in the end the state did not prove pivotal to the outcome of the race. McCain conceded the election to Obama before the outcome in North Carolina was known.
With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Obama had 2,098,401 votes to McCain’s 2,084,344 votes in the state. It was one of three battleground states – along with Indiana and Missouri – that major news organizations had not called by early Wednesday morning.
The closeness of the race represented a significant departure from recent presidential campaigns, when candidates from both parties paid little attention to North Carolina. In 2004, John Kerry was blown out by George W. Bush, losing 56 percent to 43 percent.
One reason Obama was able to vastly improve upon Kerry’s performance was his showing with white voters, a key voting block in the state. In 2004, Kerry won only 27 percent of white voters, compared with 37 percent for Obama this year, exit polls showed.
Typically, Democrats running statewide in North Carolina need to secure about 40 of the white vote to win the state, strategists said. But a major boost in turnout this year by African-American voters — 97 percent of whom voted for Obama, according to exit polls — inspired by Obama’s historic candidacy lessened the importance of the white vote slightly.
Given the loss of Ohio and other states that voted for George W. Bush in 2004, McCain desperately needed to hold onto North Carolina. One reason he was able to fend off Obama’s challenge was his strength with independent voters.
McCain won independents 56 percent to 43 percent in North Carolina, according to exit polls. And he did better than Bush in the conservative, mountainous Western part of the state.
But he did worse than Bush in nearly every other region of the state. For example, In the Eastern part of the state, Bush got six of 10 votes in 2004. This year, Obama got six of 10 votes in that region.
Sean Mussenden can be reached at 202 662-7668 or at smussenden@mediageneral.com.