By Amy Dominello, Media General News Service
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Stumble It!
WASHINGTON -- Two days after the New England Patriots face off against the New York Giants, presidential politics will host a Super Bowl of its own.
On Feb. 5, more than 20 states will vote in primaries or caucuses. The countdown to kickoff has already started with campaign operations in full swing in those states and political ads beginning to hit the airwaves.
The number of delegates a candidate receives in each primary or caucus is governed by complicated political party rules.
For the Republicans, more than 1,000 delegates are at stake on Super Tuesday, according to the Associated Press. To win the GOP nomination, a candidate needs 1,191.
Nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates are up for grabs that day, a good chunk of the 2,025 needed to become the party’s presidential candidate.
Super Tuesday is the big game -- and many states wanted in.
Alabama and Georgia moved their primaries up, hoping to give voters a louder voice in picking the presidential nominees. But so did many delegate-rich states, such as California. That has created an unintended consequence for the smaller states.
“If your goal was to really get the spotlight on your state, Feb. 5 was not the best date to choose,” said Paul Freedman, an associate professor of politics at the University of Virginia.
While states that moved up their primaries may get more attention than they did previously, political scientists warn that voters shouldn’t expect the presidential candidates to come-a-calling as they did before early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
John M. Bruce, an associate professor of political science at the University of Mississippi, said there are so many primaries on Super Tuesday that candidates simply can’t hit every state. Some smaller states may find themselves lost in the shuffle.
“There’s an incentive not to be last, but there’s also an incentive not to be grouped in with the pack,” he said.
Still, party officials and voters in Super Tuesday states say they like the attention.
Martin Matheny, a spokesman for the Georgia Democratic Party, remembers going to South Carolina in 2003 to see John Kerry.
This year, Matheny won’t have to travel out of state. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards both are committed to attending the party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson Dinner Tuesday in Atlanta.
“I think it’s a great thing for Georgia because we’ve seen so much excitement so far,” he said.
Drew White, a 22-year-old student at Auburn University, feels the excitement too. White, a John McCain supporter, said Alabama has been insignificant in past presidential primaries.
“Being in the mix, that’s much better than not having a say at all,” White said.
In the past, voters in Alabama had little reason to take part in the primaries, said Janet Clark, the president of the non-partisan League of Women Voters of East Alabama.
“Why would you want to go to the polls and vote after it’s been decided?” she said. “This is incentive to be part of a big thing now, whether we get attention or not.”
After Super Tuesday, some candidates may find themselves with a super hangover. Some will likely drop out both before and after the big day.
Unless Super Tuesday delivers a clear frontrunner, states with primaries after Feb. 5 – such as Virginia’s a week later and even North Carolina’s on May 6 -- could end up having more influence
“If there is no really definitive result … the irony is the states that may benefit the most are those that waited,” said Stephen Borrelli, an associate professor of political science for the University of Alabama.
And at that point Super Tuesday may just be a super afterthought.
“Every primary is the most important primary -- until the next,” said pollster Larry Harris of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.
(Contact Amy Dominello at 202-662-7671 or adominello@mediageneral.com)
Who gets in the game?
When deciding where to focus on Super Tuesday, presidential campaigns are “looking for the biggest bang for their buck,” said Larry Harris of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.
Size matters
Alabama’s size puts it in the middle of Super Tuesday states. While most candidates have set up offices throughout the state, much of the campaigning will be at the grassroots level by local residents and campaign workers.
Neighboring Georgia, with more delegates and big media outlets, likely will see more activity.
Supporters
Candidates hunt for the best spots to target supporters, said Paul Freedman, an associate professor of politics at the University of Virginia.
“You need to go where you’re strong and your opponents are weak,” he said.
Alabama, with strong contingents of evangelical and black voters, might expect an appearance by Republican Mike Huckabee or Democrat Barack Obama.
Money and resources
While campaigns are already working the Super Tuesday states, they’ll have to pivot quickly after primaries in South Carolina and Florida, campaign workers said.
Winners will gather momentum and the media spotlight. That translates into campaign money going on to Super Tuesday.
Come Super Tuesday, candidates at the back of the pack will have to target their energies in a do-or-die campaign on delegate-rich states.
“When resources are scarce, the decisions are much more critical,” Harris said.
On Feb. 5, more than 20 states will vote in primaries or caucuses. The countdown to kickoff has already started with campaign operations in full swing in those states and political ads beginning to hit the airwaves.
The number of delegates a candidate receives in each primary or caucus is governed by complicated political party rules.
For the Republicans, more than 1,000 delegates are at stake on Super Tuesday, according to the Associated Press. To win the GOP nomination, a candidate needs 1,191.
Nearly 1,700 Democratic delegates are up for grabs that day, a good chunk of the 2,025 needed to become the party’s presidential candidate.
Super Tuesday is the big game -- and many states wanted in.
Alabama and Georgia moved their primaries up, hoping to give voters a louder voice in picking the presidential nominees. But so did many delegate-rich states, such as California. That has created an unintended consequence for the smaller states.
“If your goal was to really get the spotlight on your state, Feb. 5 was not the best date to choose,” said Paul Freedman, an associate professor of politics at the University of Virginia.
While states that moved up their primaries may get more attention than they did previously, political scientists warn that voters shouldn’t expect the presidential candidates to come-a-calling as they did before early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.
John M. Bruce, an associate professor of political science at the University of Mississippi, said there are so many primaries on Super Tuesday that candidates simply can’t hit every state. Some smaller states may find themselves lost in the shuffle.
“There’s an incentive not to be last, but there’s also an incentive not to be grouped in with the pack,” he said.
Still, party officials and voters in Super Tuesday states say they like the attention.
Martin Matheny, a spokesman for the Georgia Democratic Party, remembers going to South Carolina in 2003 to see John Kerry.
This year, Matheny won’t have to travel out of state. Hillary Clinton and John Edwards both are committed to attending the party’s annual Jefferson-Jackson Dinner Tuesday in Atlanta.
“I think it’s a great thing for Georgia because we’ve seen so much excitement so far,” he said.
Drew White, a 22-year-old student at Auburn University, feels the excitement too. White, a John McCain supporter, said Alabama has been insignificant in past presidential primaries.
“Being in the mix, that’s much better than not having a say at all,” White said.
In the past, voters in Alabama had little reason to take part in the primaries, said Janet Clark, the president of the non-partisan League of Women Voters of East Alabama.
“Why would you want to go to the polls and vote after it’s been decided?” she said. “This is incentive to be part of a big thing now, whether we get attention or not.”
After Super Tuesday, some candidates may find themselves with a super hangover. Some will likely drop out both before and after the big day.
Unless Super Tuesday delivers a clear frontrunner, states with primaries after Feb. 5 – such as Virginia’s a week later and even North Carolina’s on May 6 -- could end up having more influence
“If there is no really definitive result … the irony is the states that may benefit the most are those that waited,” said Stephen Borrelli, an associate professor of political science for the University of Alabama.
And at that point Super Tuesday may just be a super afterthought.
“Every primary is the most important primary -- until the next,” said pollster Larry Harris of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.
(Contact Amy Dominello at 202-662-7671 or adominello@mediageneral.com)
Who gets in the game?
When deciding where to focus on Super Tuesday, presidential campaigns are “looking for the biggest bang for their buck,” said Larry Harris of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.
Size matters
Alabama’s size puts it in the middle of Super Tuesday states. While most candidates have set up offices throughout the state, much of the campaigning will be at the grassroots level by local residents and campaign workers.
Neighboring Georgia, with more delegates and big media outlets, likely will see more activity.
Supporters
Candidates hunt for the best spots to target supporters, said Paul Freedman, an associate professor of politics at the University of Virginia.
“You need to go where you’re strong and your opponents are weak,” he said.
Alabama, with strong contingents of evangelical and black voters, might expect an appearance by Republican Mike Huckabee or Democrat Barack Obama.
Money and resources
While campaigns are already working the Super Tuesday states, they’ll have to pivot quickly after primaries in South Carolina and Florida, campaign workers said.
Winners will gather momentum and the media spotlight. That translates into campaign money going on to Super Tuesday.
Come Super Tuesday, candidates at the back of the pack will have to target their energies in a do-or-die campaign on delegate-rich states.
“When resources are scarce, the decisions are much more critical,” Harris said.