By BILLY HOUSE/Media General News Service
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TAMPA - Florida Republicans and their GOP colleagues nationally will wake up the morning after Tuesday's elections with a newly chosen president-elect and a new political landscape.
A White House victory by John McCain would be a win for Florida Republicans, including Gov. Charlie Crist and U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, who both face re-election in two years, say analysts.
A McCain loss - particularly if he doesn't carry Florida - could prove to be an embarrassment and a potential sign of trouble for the two Floridians looking to 2010.
"If you are the party of the winner - it helps," said Susan McManus, a University of South Florida political scientist. "If you are the party of the loser - it hurts."
More dire may be that the GOP will face a net loss of as many as 30 seats nationally in the House, including a net loss of two from Florida -- even with a McCain victory.
Analysts also say Republicans are in line to lose eight or nine additional Senate seats from other states.
Such a dismal showing in the congressional races could suddenly bring down to earth what has been the swift political ascendancy in Washington of Rep. Adam Putnam of Bartow as a top House Republican.
Even before the Election night results are in, expectations of a poor GOP showing and anger over the direction of the party has led to back-door maneuvering for a potential leadership fight targeting the Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio and whip Roy Blunt of Missouri.
And Putnam himself recently angered some rank-and-file House conservatives by supporting the Wall Street bailout.
Putnam acknowledges there has been talk of a potential purge of current GOP House conference leaders after this election. Upset and angry, remaining rank-and-file members may turn to more conservative members, like Virginia's Eric Cantor, to lead rebuilding efforts.
"Elections have consequences," said Putnam, on whether his position as conference chairman -- the No. 3 House Republican -- could be in jeopardy if the GOP conference is reduced after election losses to its most-ideologically conservative members.
New House GOP leadership elections, which will be held behind closed doors, are already set for Nov. 17 in Washington.
However, there is some uncertainty over whether Putnam, who only took his leadership role two years ago and at age 35 is one of the House's youngest members, will be among those also targeted in any leadership purge, said David Wasserman, an expert on the House with non-partisan Cook Political Report.
"John Boehner and Roy Blunt have the most to fear," said Wasserman. "It's hard to say whether Adam Putnam will be seen by House Republicans as having to shoulder some of the blame of this debacle."
Crist's and Martinez's eleventh-hour endorsements of McCain during the GOP primary in Florida were pivotal in his getting the nomination.
In recent weeks, however, Crist, whose popularity among Floridians has remained high during his two-year tenure, has been accused of appearing more tepid on the campaign trail on behalf of McCain.
McManus and Aubrey Jewitt, a University of Central Florida political scientist, say both Crist and Martinez stand to gain with a McCain victory.
After all, a president from the same political party can see to it that programs and funding are funneled to the state, give appointments to Cabinet-level jobs and make choices for other roles with in his administration.
The president can also campaign and help raise money for Republicans running for election, something Crist and Martinez may be doing in 2010.
But a McCain loss in Florida would be another sign that the Democratic Party in the state is surging, said Jewitt.
"It hurts Crist. It hurts all Republicans in the state," said Jewitt.
Even if McCain loses Florida and the election, McManus said, Crist's ability to maintain support of independents and what she calls his "carefully crafted centrist positions" will leave him in a better position, politically, than many other Republican governors."
In the week after Election Day, the Republican Governor's Association will convene its annual meeting, in Miami.
It is one of several post-election GOP gatherings to concentrate on where the party should go in the future, and in developing a new group of national party leaders for future elections. One of the sessions of the event is entitled, "The GOP in Transition."
It just so happens that this event will be hosted by Crist, giving him one of the highest profiles there.
Reporter Billy House can be reached at bhouse@mediageneral.com at (202) 662-7673.
A White House victory by John McCain would be a win for Florida Republicans, including Gov. Charlie Crist and U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, who both face re-election in two years, say analysts.
A McCain loss - particularly if he doesn't carry Florida - could prove to be an embarrassment and a potential sign of trouble for the two Floridians looking to 2010.
"If you are the party of the winner - it helps," said Susan McManus, a University of South Florida political scientist. "If you are the party of the loser - it hurts."
More dire may be that the GOP will face a net loss of as many as 30 seats nationally in the House, including a net loss of two from Florida -- even with a McCain victory.
Analysts also say Republicans are in line to lose eight or nine additional Senate seats from other states.
Such a dismal showing in the congressional races could suddenly bring down to earth what has been the swift political ascendancy in Washington of Rep. Adam Putnam of Bartow as a top House Republican.
Even before the Election night results are in, expectations of a poor GOP showing and anger over the direction of the party has led to back-door maneuvering for a potential leadership fight targeting the Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio and whip Roy Blunt of Missouri.
And Putnam himself recently angered some rank-and-file House conservatives by supporting the Wall Street bailout.
Putnam acknowledges there has been talk of a potential purge of current GOP House conference leaders after this election. Upset and angry, remaining rank-and-file members may turn to more conservative members, like Virginia's Eric Cantor, to lead rebuilding efforts.
"Elections have consequences," said Putnam, on whether his position as conference chairman -- the No. 3 House Republican -- could be in jeopardy if the GOP conference is reduced after election losses to its most-ideologically conservative members.
New House GOP leadership elections, which will be held behind closed doors, are already set for Nov. 17 in Washington.
However, there is some uncertainty over whether Putnam, who only took his leadership role two years ago and at age 35 is one of the House's youngest members, will be among those also targeted in any leadership purge, said David Wasserman, an expert on the House with non-partisan Cook Political Report.
"John Boehner and Roy Blunt have the most to fear," said Wasserman. "It's hard to say whether Adam Putnam will be seen by House Republicans as having to shoulder some of the blame of this debacle."
Crist's and Martinez's eleventh-hour endorsements of McCain during the GOP primary in Florida were pivotal in his getting the nomination.
In recent weeks, however, Crist, whose popularity among Floridians has remained high during his two-year tenure, has been accused of appearing more tepid on the campaign trail on behalf of McCain.
McManus and Aubrey Jewitt, a University of Central Florida political scientist, say both Crist and Martinez stand to gain with a McCain victory.
After all, a president from the same political party can see to it that programs and funding are funneled to the state, give appointments to Cabinet-level jobs and make choices for other roles with in his administration.
The president can also campaign and help raise money for Republicans running for election, something Crist and Martinez may be doing in 2010.
But a McCain loss in Florida would be another sign that the Democratic Party in the state is surging, said Jewitt.
"It hurts Crist. It hurts all Republicans in the state," said Jewitt.
Even if McCain loses Florida and the election, McManus said, Crist's ability to maintain support of independents and what she calls his "carefully crafted centrist positions" will leave him in a better position, politically, than many other Republican governors."
In the week after Election Day, the Republican Governor's Association will convene its annual meeting, in Miami.
It is one of several post-election GOP gatherings to concentrate on where the party should go in the future, and in developing a new group of national party leaders for future elections. One of the sessions of the event is entitled, "The GOP in Transition."
It just so happens that this event will be hosted by Crist, giving him one of the highest profiles there.
Reporter Billy House can be reached at bhouse@mediageneral.com at (202) 662-7673.