By William March
Tampa Tribune
Tampa Tribune
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TAMPA, Fla. - Arizona Sen. John McCain won the Florida Republican presidential primary Tuesday night, solidifying his comeback in the nomination race and sealing his front-runner status heading into Super Tuesday.
Rudy Giuliani, who had staked his campaign on winning Florida, was expected to leave the race today and endorse McCain.
"Our victory might not have reached landslide proportions, but it is sweet nonetheless," McCain told supporters in Miami, with Gov. Charlie Crist, who provided a late endorsement, standing behind him.
In a race everyone had said was too close to call, that endorsement may have helped. Although his lead in incomplete returns was narrow, it was bigger than any late poll showed: Nearly all showed a statistical tie in the final weekend.
McCain gave a speech that sounded much like the frontrunner most experts say his win will make him, thanking and complimenting his opponents - particularly Giuliani.
"I want to thank my dear friend, Rudy Giuliani, who invested his heart and soul in this primary, and who conducted himself with all the qualities of the exceptional American leader he truly is," McCain said.
Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, ran a close second in the race, and was expected to battle against McCain through Super Tuesday after yet another close loss, his third in a high-profile primary so far in the race.
"Well, almost, but not quite," Romney told a packed room in a St. Petersburg meeting hall. He said he will be the conservative with economic experience in what is now a two-man race.
"The economy is in my DNA," he told the crowd. "America needs a president in the White House who has had a job in the real economy."
Romney spokesman Kevin Madden shook off reports of Giuliani's expected support for McCain, saying it wouldn't have much effect.
Romney strategists would not respond directly when asked whether Mike Huckabee's remaining in the race will hurt Romney, who also has appealed to social and religious conservatives.
Giuliani, meanwhile, gave a speech to supporters in Orlando that sounded like a campaign-ender, though he never explicitly said so. "The responsibility of leadership doesn't end with a single campaign; it goes on and you continue to fight for it," the former New York mayor said.
"I'm proud that we chose to stay positive and to run a campaign of ideas," he said. "We ran a campaign that was uplifting. You don't always win, but you can always try to do it right."
Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor whose fourth-place finish wasn't far behind Giuliani, vowed to continue his race, relying on a solid core of evangelicals and religious conservatives for whom he is their movement's best standard-bearer in the race.
"When you look at what we've done with what we had, it's a remarkable story that's not even close to being over," he told a roomful of supporters in Missouri. "We're just getting started."
He forecast wins in Southern and Western states that will vote Tuesday.
Political insiders say McCain's win will make it easy for him to quickly raise the money he needs to continue his race, and Romney has shown willingness to spend his own, huge personal wealth to continue.
He continued to refuse to answer questions Tuesday night about how much of his own money he has spent in the race or is likely to spend.
McCain's victory "sends a signal to Super Tuesday states that McCain is quickly becoming the establishment candidate, the one that meets the electability test," said University of Central Florida political scientist Aubrey Jewett. "It opens a clear path for him to get the nomination."
Pollster Peter Brown of Quinnipiac University said the win will add to substantial leads McCain already holds in some big Super Tuesday states, including California and New York.
The outcome caps the most dramatic presidential primary race Florida has seen in more than a decade.
Starting in early 2007, when it became clear the state Legislature would move the state's primary up to Jan. 29, the state was the biggest blip on GOP candidates' radar screens prior to Super Tuesday.
Florida was the largest, most representative, state and the most important source of momentum before Super Tuesday, the primary day that's considered likely to decide the nominee.
Giuliani Loses Ground
But as election day approached, the question in Florida was, "What happened to Giuliani?"
Early in the race, he led among likely Republican contenders by as much as 20 points in some polls.
As late as Dec. 20, a Quinnipiac University poll showed Giuliani leading in Florida with 28 percent among likely GOP primary voters, with Romney second at 20 percent and McCain a distant fourth.
Giuliani's collapse in late December and early January was sudden and devastating.
He disappeared from headlines, or at least from positive ones, while losing badly in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and fell into a dizzying tailspin in national and state polls.
He moved all his staff and money into Florida, and declared his candidacy would rise or fall on the outcome here. Even on election eve, trailing McCain and Romney in polls by 2-1, he maintained, "The winner of Florida will win the nomination" - a comment that calls his future in the race into question.
"He rolled the dice and lost," said University of Florida political scientist Stephen Craig. His Florida-dependent strategy "was a big gamble and it blew up on him."
"The maxim they forgot was, 'out of sight, out of mind,'" Craig said. Giuliani lost ground, and dropped almost entirely from public view, while the other candidates were notching wins in early primaries.
In that vacuum of positive news coverage, Jewett said Giuliani was hurt by negative stories from New York: the indictment of his former police commissioner, Bernard Kerik, and using police vehicles to chauffeur his girlfriend while apparently hiding the cost in obscure city budgets.
Another problem for Giuliani arose when the stock market drops suddenly shifted the focus from national security to the economy, Jewett said. "His major credentials coming in were as a leader in the battle against terrorism."
Meanwhile, McCain's surge after his New Hampshire win, from a broke, moribund campaign dismissed by political insiders was almost as dramatic. It made him an attractive bet for endorsements from prominent Floridians who leaned toward him anyway, including Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez.
Crist's Endorsement
Some conservatives and political experts said the endorsements, coming as late as they did, would not matter.
Former state House speaker and Romney backer Allan Bense of Panama City told reporters Sunday the endorsement of Crist, who's not as conservative as many Panhandle Republicans, may havein that area.
Some voters may have been swayed, however. The endorsements "gave people a rationale for voting for him," despite his reputation as a party maverick, said supporter Mark Proctor, a Hillsborough County political consultant.
At least to Republicans, the primary campaign vindicates the state Legislature's decision to move up the primary date to Jan. 29, which violated the rules of both national parties and resulted in sanctions against the state.
The result has been an intense, big-spending campaign here capturing national media attention, and shaping the Republican race to come.
Reporter Billy Townsend contributed to this report. Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com
Rudy Giuliani, who had staked his campaign on winning Florida, was expected to leave the race today and endorse McCain.
"Our victory might not have reached landslide proportions, but it is sweet nonetheless," McCain told supporters in Miami, with Gov. Charlie Crist, who provided a late endorsement, standing behind him.
In a race everyone had said was too close to call, that endorsement may have helped. Although his lead in incomplete returns was narrow, it was bigger than any late poll showed: Nearly all showed a statistical tie in the final weekend.
McCain gave a speech that sounded much like the frontrunner most experts say his win will make him, thanking and complimenting his opponents - particularly Giuliani.
"I want to thank my dear friend, Rudy Giuliani, who invested his heart and soul in this primary, and who conducted himself with all the qualities of the exceptional American leader he truly is," McCain said.
Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, ran a close second in the race, and was expected to battle against McCain through Super Tuesday after yet another close loss, his third in a high-profile primary so far in the race.
"Well, almost, but not quite," Romney told a packed room in a St. Petersburg meeting hall. He said he will be the conservative with economic experience in what is now a two-man race.
"The economy is in my DNA," he told the crowd. "America needs a president in the White House who has had a job in the real economy."
Romney spokesman Kevin Madden shook off reports of Giuliani's expected support for McCain, saying it wouldn't have much effect.
Romney strategists would not respond directly when asked whether Mike Huckabee's remaining in the race will hurt Romney, who also has appealed to social and religious conservatives.
Giuliani, meanwhile, gave a speech to supporters in Orlando that sounded like a campaign-ender, though he never explicitly said so. "The responsibility of leadership doesn't end with a single campaign; it goes on and you continue to fight for it," the former New York mayor said.
"I'm proud that we chose to stay positive and to run a campaign of ideas," he said. "We ran a campaign that was uplifting. You don't always win, but you can always try to do it right."
Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor whose fourth-place finish wasn't far behind Giuliani, vowed to continue his race, relying on a solid core of evangelicals and religious conservatives for whom he is their movement's best standard-bearer in the race.
"When you look at what we've done with what we had, it's a remarkable story that's not even close to being over," he told a roomful of supporters in Missouri. "We're just getting started."
He forecast wins in Southern and Western states that will vote Tuesday.
Political insiders say McCain's win will make it easy for him to quickly raise the money he needs to continue his race, and Romney has shown willingness to spend his own, huge personal wealth to continue.
He continued to refuse to answer questions Tuesday night about how much of his own money he has spent in the race or is likely to spend.
McCain's victory "sends a signal to Super Tuesday states that McCain is quickly becoming the establishment candidate, the one that meets the electability test," said University of Central Florida political scientist Aubrey Jewett. "It opens a clear path for him to get the nomination."
Pollster Peter Brown of Quinnipiac University said the win will add to substantial leads McCain already holds in some big Super Tuesday states, including California and New York.
The outcome caps the most dramatic presidential primary race Florida has seen in more than a decade.
Starting in early 2007, when it became clear the state Legislature would move the state's primary up to Jan. 29, the state was the biggest blip on GOP candidates' radar screens prior to Super Tuesday.
Florida was the largest, most representative, state and the most important source of momentum before Super Tuesday, the primary day that's considered likely to decide the nominee.
Giuliani Loses Ground
But as election day approached, the question in Florida was, "What happened to Giuliani?"
Early in the race, he led among likely Republican contenders by as much as 20 points in some polls.
As late as Dec. 20, a Quinnipiac University poll showed Giuliani leading in Florida with 28 percent among likely GOP primary voters, with Romney second at 20 percent and McCain a distant fourth.
Giuliani's collapse in late December and early January was sudden and devastating.
He disappeared from headlines, or at least from positive ones, while losing badly in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and fell into a dizzying tailspin in national and state polls.
He moved all his staff and money into Florida, and declared his candidacy would rise or fall on the outcome here. Even on election eve, trailing McCain and Romney in polls by 2-1, he maintained, "The winner of Florida will win the nomination" - a comment that calls his future in the race into question.
"He rolled the dice and lost," said University of Florida political scientist Stephen Craig. His Florida-dependent strategy "was a big gamble and it blew up on him."
"The maxim they forgot was, 'out of sight, out of mind,'" Craig said. Giuliani lost ground, and dropped almost entirely from public view, while the other candidates were notching wins in early primaries.
In that vacuum of positive news coverage, Jewett said Giuliani was hurt by negative stories from New York: the indictment of his former police commissioner, Bernard Kerik, and using police vehicles to chauffeur his girlfriend while apparently hiding the cost in obscure city budgets.
Another problem for Giuliani arose when the stock market drops suddenly shifted the focus from national security to the economy, Jewett said. "His major credentials coming in were as a leader in the battle against terrorism."
Meanwhile, McCain's surge after his New Hampshire win, from a broke, moribund campaign dismissed by political insiders was almost as dramatic. It made him an attractive bet for endorsements from prominent Floridians who leaned toward him anyway, including Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez.
Crist's Endorsement
Some conservatives and political experts said the endorsements, coming as late as they did, would not matter.
Former state House speaker and Romney backer Allan Bense of Panama City told reporters Sunday the endorsement of Crist, who's not as conservative as many Panhandle Republicans, may havein that area.
Some voters may have been swayed, however. The endorsements "gave people a rationale for voting for him," despite his reputation as a party maverick, said supporter Mark Proctor, a Hillsborough County political consultant.
At least to Republicans, the primary campaign vindicates the state Legislature's decision to move up the primary date to Jan. 29, which violated the rules of both national parties and resulted in sanctions against the state.
The result has been an intense, big-spending campaign here capturing national media attention, and shaping the Republican race to come.
Reporter Billy Townsend contributed to this report. Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com