By Sean Mussenden
Media General News Service
Media General News Service
Voters line up in the bitter cold Wednesday to cast early ballots in Concord, N.C.
By Sean Mussenden
By Sean Mussenden
Email to a Friend
Stumble It!
Most Popular Stories
CONCORD, N.C. - With less than week until Election Day, polls give John McCain and Barack Obama each an equal shot at winning the deadlocked race for North Carolina's 15 electoral votes.
For Obama to win, political strategists say, he needs to do three things: run up big margins in metro areas with record turnout from African-Americans and younger voters, do better than most Democratic presidential candidates in the increasingly populous suburbs, and make inroads into more conservative rural areas.
For McCain to win, political strategists say, he needs: a big turnout from conservative Republican voters in rural areas and outer suburbs, to convince conservative Democrats to stick with the GOP this year, and prevent Obama from running up giant margins in Charlotte and the Research Triangle.
Decades ago, political strategists in North Carolina had a reliable method for determining whether the Democrat or the Republican would win a statewide election as county results rolled in on election night and before all the votes were counted.
The East was mostly blue, the West was mostly red, and the middle could go either way.
"Generally, you could tell whether the Democrat or Republican was going to win by how far east or west the dividing line fell," said Gary Pearce, a veteran Democratic strategist in Raleigh who has worked on several statewide races.
Major population growth in the suburbs has shaken the reliability of that old regional model, affecting the way both presidential candidates have run their North Carolina campaigns.
"As we've become more of a metropolitan state, those kind of regional divisions matter less," said Ferrel Guillory, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill. "The Raleigh suburbs tend to act like Charlotte suburbs, at least more so than in the past."
Like previous presidential candidates, Obama is banking on strength in Democratic-leaning Eastern North Carolina, and McCain plans to rack up big margins in the mountainous Western counties.
But in the middle of the state, the inner and outer suburbs have emerged as the crucial battleground.
"It's critical for any candidate who wants to win statewide in North Carolina to do very well in the exurbs and suburbs," said Paul Shoemaker, a veteran Republican strategist who helped Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., win his seat.
That fight is evident in Cabarrus County, a hotbed of NASCAR racing where many residents commute south to Charlotte. The county runs conservative. In 2004, George W. Bush thumped John Kerry here, 67 to 33 percent, about 10 points higher than the margin by which he won North Carolina.
Though Republicans still out number Democrats here, recent registration trends have not favored the GOP. Since 2004, Democrats have registered 4,700 new voters compared to 2,800 for Republicans, along with 6,000 new independents.
Similar gains in other suburban areas - particularly around Raleigh - are one reason strategists say Obama is competitive in North Carolina this year.
Wendy Wood, chair of the Cabarrus Democratic Party, said she did not expect Obama to win her county. But the Obama campaign has opened an
office here - one of 50 around the state - and is working harder here than previous Democratic presidential candidates.
No Democratic candidate has won North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976, though Bill Clinton came close, losing by a point in 1992.
"Our hope is to cut down the margin of victory (Bush had over Kerry), and I think we have a really good chance of doing that," Wood said.
The McCain campaign has also opened an office here - one of 35 in the state. McCain stopped in the county for a rally in mid-October, a move aimed at boosting turnout of conservative voters in Cabarrus and in the greater Charlotte metro area.
Chris McCartan, chair of the Cabarrus County Republican Party, said despite Obama's surprising strength in other parts of the state, he expected McCain's margin in the county to equal Bush's in 2004.
"I don't expect a big upset here," he said.
For Obama to win, political strategists say, he needs to do three things: run up big margins in metro areas with record turnout from African-Americans and younger voters, do better than most Democratic presidential candidates in the increasingly populous suburbs, and make inroads into more conservative rural areas.
For McCain to win, political strategists say, he needs: a big turnout from conservative Republican voters in rural areas and outer suburbs, to convince conservative Democrats to stick with the GOP this year, and prevent Obama from running up giant margins in Charlotte and the Research Triangle.
Decades ago, political strategists in North Carolina had a reliable method for determining whether the Democrat or the Republican would win a statewide election as county results rolled in on election night and before all the votes were counted.
The East was mostly blue, the West was mostly red, and the middle could go either way.
"Generally, you could tell whether the Democrat or Republican was going to win by how far east or west the dividing line fell," said Gary Pearce, a veteran Democratic strategist in Raleigh who has worked on several statewide races.
Major population growth in the suburbs has shaken the reliability of that old regional model, affecting the way both presidential candidates have run their North Carolina campaigns.
"As we've become more of a metropolitan state, those kind of regional divisions matter less," said Ferrel Guillory, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill. "The Raleigh suburbs tend to act like Charlotte suburbs, at least more so than in the past."
Like previous presidential candidates, Obama is banking on strength in Democratic-leaning Eastern North Carolina, and McCain plans to rack up big margins in the mountainous Western counties.
But in the middle of the state, the inner and outer suburbs have emerged as the crucial battleground.
"It's critical for any candidate who wants to win statewide in North Carolina to do very well in the exurbs and suburbs," said Paul Shoemaker, a veteran Republican strategist who helped Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., win his seat.
That fight is evident in Cabarrus County, a hotbed of NASCAR racing where many residents commute south to Charlotte. The county runs conservative. In 2004, George W. Bush thumped John Kerry here, 67 to 33 percent, about 10 points higher than the margin by which he won North Carolina.
Though Republicans still out number Democrats here, recent registration trends have not favored the GOP. Since 2004, Democrats have registered 4,700 new voters compared to 2,800 for Republicans, along with 6,000 new independents.
Similar gains in other suburban areas - particularly around Raleigh - are one reason strategists say Obama is competitive in North Carolina this year.
Wendy Wood, chair of the Cabarrus Democratic Party, said she did not expect Obama to win her county. But the Obama campaign has opened an
office here - one of 50 around the state - and is working harder here than previous Democratic presidential candidates.
No Democratic candidate has won North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976, though Bill Clinton came close, losing by a point in 1992.
"Our hope is to cut down the margin of victory (Bush had over Kerry), and I think we have a really good chance of doing that," Wood said.
The McCain campaign has also opened an office here - one of 35 in the state. McCain stopped in the county for a rally in mid-October, a move aimed at boosting turnout of conservative voters in Cabarrus and in the greater Charlotte metro area.
Chris McCartan, chair of the Cabarrus County Republican Party, said despite Obama's surprising strength in other parts of the state, he expected McCain's margin in the county to equal Bush's in 2004.
"I don't expect a big upset here," he said.