Washington Bureau

McCain Counts Virginia Solidly Republican


By NEIL H. SIMON, Media General News Service
June 16 2008 | text size: small medium large
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ARLINGTON, Va.- Strong support in the Tidewater area won't be enough to win Virginia, John McCain acknowledged Tuesday, saying, he still has "a lot of work to do" to keep Virginia in the Republican column this fall.

The Republican presidential hopeful said at a news conference at his national campaign headquarters, that Virginia "has a great deal of importance" in the November election.

"I do not take it lightly," he said. "I watched the results of recent election in this state, so I do have a lot of work to do."

Democrats have won the Virginia governor's mansion three elections in a row and unseated a Republican for a Senate seat in 2006.

But President George W. Bush won Virginia in 2000 and 2004, and the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state was Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

A McCain strategy memo released online last week counted Virginia as one of 17 "solidly Republican" states. But University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said that was laughable.

"It's hilarious. That is a pure bluff. Nobody buys it," he said. "They are thinking in terms of a 2004 electorate. They are going to get a very different and larger electorate in 2008."

The biggest changes, Sabato said, will be a huge African-American turnout and lopsided fundraising in favor of Democratic Sen. Barack Obama.

Big Obama ad buys in Virginia could force McCain to come back to the state more often than he would like, Sabato said.

"Every time Obama makes (McCain) come to Virginia, he's not in Pennsylvania or somewhere else trying to tip over the Democratic apple cart," Sabato said.

McCain counts his strongest support in Virginia's Tidewater area, where he was stationed while in the Navy.

"We already have a very large and vibrant organization there," he said, "but I think we've got to campaign and get support all across the state."

Obama also plans to make Virginia a battleground. Obama traveled to Virginia first after sewing up the Democratic nomination.

In a sign of how serious Obama is about Virginia, campaign manager David Plouffe deployed several aides there who had helped Obama win his upset victory in Iowa Jan. 3.

At a Washington fundraiser, Plouffe told supporters that winning Virginia will depend on the campaign successfully registering new black voters and new young voters. The state's 13 electoral votes would be critical to offset any losses, like Sen. John Kerry suffered in 2004 in Ohio and Florida.

(The Associated Press contributed to this report.)
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