Billy House and William March/Media General News Service
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TAMPA -- After the startling results of the Iowa caucuses, Florida’s Jan. 29 presidential primary looms as possibly the most decisive event of the primary season.
Florida, experts agreed Friday, could be a make-or-break last stand for Hillary Clinton against Democrat rival Barack Obama, and for Republicans, the place where a clear frontrunner will emerge from a muddled field.
“There may be no delegates officially at stake on the Democratic side and the delegates are cut in half on the Republican side. But there’s no questioning how crucial Florida now stands,” says Brad Coker, of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.
Florida is the only megastate and the most representative state that will vote before Super Tuesday Feb. 5, when both parties’ nominees are expected to be decided in deluge of 22 state primaries.
Florida’s primary “may be more symbolic than real, but its impact on Super Tuesday will be immense,” said Tampa-based GOP media strategist Adam Goodman.
On the Republican side, it seems probable that no candidate will have won more than two primaries -- possibly no more than one – before Florida.
“You are going to have a scenario of no clear leader coming into Florida, and Florida voters will choose who the party’s nominee will be,” said state GOP Chairman Jim Greer.
On the Democratic side, Florida, where Clinton has long held a commanding lead, is the place where she can prove or disprove her ability to win among all kinds of voters.
“Iowa picks corn. Florida picks presidents,” said Tampa Clinton backer Ana Cruz, paraphrasing a comment once made about New Hampshire.
Assuming both races remain competitive, “It’s possible Florida will end up winnowing the field for Super Tuesday – being the kingmaker state, so to speak,” said presidential politics specialist Bruce Buchanan of the University of Texas.
In something of a political irony, the Democratic candidates may find their fates decided in a state they’ve pledged to boycott because its Jan. 29 primary violated the national party schedule. Because of the pledge, they haven’t been campaigning here.
And because of a penalty imposed by the national party over the primary date, Democratic candidates in Florida can’t win any of the convention delegates who choose the nominee. The primary’s importance will be psychological only.
For Republicans, the delegate prize has been cut in half because of the primary date. But it remains a good prize, because of new state rules that give all those delegates to the winner, instead of dividing them among the top candidates.
Democratic strategist Chris Lehane, a former Clinton White House official, said the state’s importance may be “unfairly minimized” because the candidates aren’t competing here.
But he said the state could end up so important that one or more candidates are tempted to break the pledge.
“If you won, you could then make the argument that it’s a state that’s a true test of a candidate’s strength and what it takes to win nationally,” unlike some of the other early primary states, Lehane said.
Before the Iowa vote, polls showed Clinton with narrow leads over Obama in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the next two most important states for Democrats. The Iowa outcome, Lehane noted, will strengthen Obama’s challenge.
But in Florida, Clinton has long held a dominating lead – and Obama couldn’t challenge her here because of the boycott pledge.
If she loses in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary and South Carolina Jan. 26, or wins but fails to convincingly crush the Obama insurgency, Florida could be her last, best opportunity to slow him down.
Coker also speculated that Clinton may be tempted to break the pledge.
“She’s going to be looking for a place to get a win in the win column, and Florida may be where she’ll need to get that win, delegates or not,” he said.
Among Republicans, Romney has been neck-and-neck with McCain in New Hampshire, tied with Huckabee in Michigan and trailing Huckabee in South Carolina. Giuliani trails in all three.
That means Florida voters may confront “a contest between two or possibly three people who have each won maybe one primary,” but with no clear leader, said Goodman.
Giuliani has held a substantial lead in polls in Florida for months. He has staked his campaign on winning in Florida and the Feb. 5 states with their big delegate totals, virtually ignoring the earlier contests in smaller states. He may not win a primary before Florida.
That strategy “is turning out to be very risky,” giving Giuliani either no news coverage or unfavorable news coverage until Florida, said New York-based national pollster John Zogby.
But Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, Giuliani’s state chairman, said he’s not worried about the Iowa outcome.
“I don’t think it matters,” McCollum said. “He has always had the view that he wouldn’t do well in Iowa, and won’t have a tremendous showing in New Hampshire. His whole strategy is to play to the larger states.”
He acknowledged Giuliani could be threatened if a single challenger won several early primaries and built momentum coming into Florida – “But that’s not going to happen,” he said.
McCollum said Giuliani plans to continue his Florida strategy over the next three weeks, spending 15 or 16 days in the state before Jan. 29 and starting TV ads – while his competitors continue to slug it out in the earlier states.
Al Cardenas, state co-chair for Romney, said he believes the results will vindicate his candidate’s strategy of competing everywhere. That strategy has made Romney competitive, though not the leader, in most of the early states, including Iowa, where he finished second.
“I’m not too sure that Rudy Giuliani will be the leading candidate in Florida by mid-January,” because of his poor performance in the early primaries, said Cardenas.
Billy House can be reached at bhouse@mediageneral.com or at (202) 662-7673. William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com
Florida, experts agreed Friday, could be a make-or-break last stand for Hillary Clinton against Democrat rival Barack Obama, and for Republicans, the place where a clear frontrunner will emerge from a muddled field.
“There may be no delegates officially at stake on the Democratic side and the delegates are cut in half on the Republican side. But there’s no questioning how crucial Florida now stands,” says Brad Coker, of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research.
Florida is the only megastate and the most representative state that will vote before Super Tuesday Feb. 5, when both parties’ nominees are expected to be decided in deluge of 22 state primaries.
Florida’s primary “may be more symbolic than real, but its impact on Super Tuesday will be immense,” said Tampa-based GOP media strategist Adam Goodman.
On the Republican side, it seems probable that no candidate will have won more than two primaries -- possibly no more than one – before Florida.
“You are going to have a scenario of no clear leader coming into Florida, and Florida voters will choose who the party’s nominee will be,” said state GOP Chairman Jim Greer.
On the Democratic side, Florida, where Clinton has long held a commanding lead, is the place where she can prove or disprove her ability to win among all kinds of voters.
“Iowa picks corn. Florida picks presidents,” said Tampa Clinton backer Ana Cruz, paraphrasing a comment once made about New Hampshire.
Assuming both races remain competitive, “It’s possible Florida will end up winnowing the field for Super Tuesday – being the kingmaker state, so to speak,” said presidential politics specialist Bruce Buchanan of the University of Texas.
In something of a political irony, the Democratic candidates may find their fates decided in a state they’ve pledged to boycott because its Jan. 29 primary violated the national party schedule. Because of the pledge, they haven’t been campaigning here.
And because of a penalty imposed by the national party over the primary date, Democratic candidates in Florida can’t win any of the convention delegates who choose the nominee. The primary’s importance will be psychological only.
For Republicans, the delegate prize has been cut in half because of the primary date. But it remains a good prize, because of new state rules that give all those delegates to the winner, instead of dividing them among the top candidates.
Democratic strategist Chris Lehane, a former Clinton White House official, said the state’s importance may be “unfairly minimized” because the candidates aren’t competing here.
But he said the state could end up so important that one or more candidates are tempted to break the pledge.
“If you won, you could then make the argument that it’s a state that’s a true test of a candidate’s strength and what it takes to win nationally,” unlike some of the other early primary states, Lehane said.
Before the Iowa vote, polls showed Clinton with narrow leads over Obama in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the next two most important states for Democrats. The Iowa outcome, Lehane noted, will strengthen Obama’s challenge.
But in Florida, Clinton has long held a dominating lead – and Obama couldn’t challenge her here because of the boycott pledge.
If she loses in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary and South Carolina Jan. 26, or wins but fails to convincingly crush the Obama insurgency, Florida could be her last, best opportunity to slow him down.
Coker also speculated that Clinton may be tempted to break the pledge.
“She’s going to be looking for a place to get a win in the win column, and Florida may be where she’ll need to get that win, delegates or not,” he said.
Among Republicans, Romney has been neck-and-neck with McCain in New Hampshire, tied with Huckabee in Michigan and trailing Huckabee in South Carolina. Giuliani trails in all three.
That means Florida voters may confront “a contest between two or possibly three people who have each won maybe one primary,” but with no clear leader, said Goodman.
Giuliani has held a substantial lead in polls in Florida for months. He has staked his campaign on winning in Florida and the Feb. 5 states with their big delegate totals, virtually ignoring the earlier contests in smaller states. He may not win a primary before Florida.
That strategy “is turning out to be very risky,” giving Giuliani either no news coverage or unfavorable news coverage until Florida, said New York-based national pollster John Zogby.
But Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, Giuliani’s state chairman, said he’s not worried about the Iowa outcome.
“I don’t think it matters,” McCollum said. “He has always had the view that he wouldn’t do well in Iowa, and won’t have a tremendous showing in New Hampshire. His whole strategy is to play to the larger states.”
He acknowledged Giuliani could be threatened if a single challenger won several early primaries and built momentum coming into Florida – “But that’s not going to happen,” he said.
McCollum said Giuliani plans to continue his Florida strategy over the next three weeks, spending 15 or 16 days in the state before Jan. 29 and starting TV ads – while his competitors continue to slug it out in the earlier states.
Al Cardenas, state co-chair for Romney, said he believes the results will vindicate his candidate’s strategy of competing everywhere. That strategy has made Romney competitive, though not the leader, in most of the early states, including Iowa, where he finished second.
“I’m not too sure that Rudy Giuliani will be the leading candidate in Florida by mid-January,” because of his poor performance in the early primaries, said Cardenas.
Billy House can be reached at bhouse@mediageneral.com or at (202) 662-7673. William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com