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BY AMY DOMINELLO
Media General News Service
WASHINGTON - Another primary and still no finality for Democrats.
Hillary Clinton claims the tide is turning toward her. The seemingly never-ending race goes on.
Clinton warned us when she started her campaign: She’s in it to win it.
We’ve gotten that message loud and clear by now. But what is the cost of her continued candidacy to the Democratic Party?
Clearly, Clinton and Barack Obama are making Republican candidate John McCain’s life a lot easier. While they continue to beat each other up, he’s doing victory tours on the Straight Talk Express.
To be sure, this race between Clinton and Obama is an exercise in extreme democracy. Few can argue that’s been a bad thing. Scores of new voters have registered for the first time. Untold numbers of people are excited about politics. A new generation is finding its political voice.
But those who’ve been inspired by the Democratic candidates - particularly young voters and black voters who have supported Obama – may become casualties of this extended primary season.
It’s a hit the Democratic Party may not be able to easily recover from.
Consider:
- In Pennsylvania, more than one in 10 voters in the primary had registered as Democrats since the beginning of the year. According to the Associated Press, six in 10 of those new voters said in exit polls they were supporting Obama.
- A CBS/MTV poll of young voters done in mid-April found that two-thirds of voters under 30 felt they will have as much or more influence in determining the next president as older voters. That’s up dramatically from just last year, when just 17 percent felt that way. And despite seeing only minor differences in the candidates, those young voters favor Obama.
- Black voters have invested even more in Obama. In late 2007, polls showed black registered Democrats favored Clinton by a two-to-one margin. But there has been a dramatic turn within that voting bloc, with Obama securing nearly 90 percent of the black vote in the most recent primaries.
If the past 20 years is any indicator, we can take Clinton at her word that she’s “in it to win it.”
If she is able to fairly eke out a win, than the primary process will have worked. But there’s significant doubt among political experts that either candidate can muster up enough votes in the remaining primaries to win the number of pledged delegates necessary to secure the nomination.
And there’s even more doubt that Clinton can garner enough votes in the remaining primaries to overtake Obama’s small lead in the pledged delegate count.
Clinton is claiming a lead in the popular vote by counting votes in Michigan and Florida. But those two states violated party rules by moving up their primaries and votes from those contests won’t count in the overall totals.
Unless something drastic happens in the nine remaining Democratic contests, Clinton is unlikely to erase Obama's edge in the pledged delegate and popular vote tallies.
That leaves Clinton with two options that will force her to play rough: continue pushing for the delegates in Florida and Michigan to be seated and convince the superdelegates that she can lead the Democrats to victory in the fall against McCain.
By playing politics, Clinton is running the risk of alienating the voters most important to the future of the Democratic Party at a critical juncture. The animosity between both candidates is already leading some Democratic voters to tell pollsters they’ll vote for McCain if their candidate is not the nominee.
But it’s easy to imagine a scenario after the primaries end June 3, where Obama leads slightly in both the primary and popular vote but not by enough to secure the nomination.
If Clinton loses, her supporters will naturally be disappointed. But if she wins the nomination by using vote totals in Florida or Michigan, or convince superdelegates she’s the right pick, what would the fallout be? What would the conspiracy theories be?
It would not be far-fetched to think that some Democrats and Obama supporters would look at the political process in disgust, akin to what happened after the Bush-Gore contest in 2000.
If superdelegates decide the election for Clinton as the Supreme Court did for Bush in the 2000 race and nullify the popular vote, it may be near impossible for the Democrats to recover as they head into November.
In an election year that seemed tailor-made for Democrats to win, will they also have to mend the disappointment suffered by a large segment of their base if Clinton emerges victorious?
Being “in it to win it” might make a good campaign slogan. But being “in it to win it” at all costs may leave the Democrats unable “to win it” come November.
Contact Amy Dominello at 202-662-7671 or adominello@mediageneral.com
Media General News Service
WASHINGTON - Another primary and still no finality for Democrats.
Hillary Clinton claims the tide is turning toward her. The seemingly never-ending race goes on.
Clinton warned us when she started her campaign: She’s in it to win it.
We’ve gotten that message loud and clear by now. But what is the cost of her continued candidacy to the Democratic Party?
Clearly, Clinton and Barack Obama are making Republican candidate John McCain’s life a lot easier. While they continue to beat each other up, he’s doing victory tours on the Straight Talk Express.
To be sure, this race between Clinton and Obama is an exercise in extreme democracy. Few can argue that’s been a bad thing. Scores of new voters have registered for the first time. Untold numbers of people are excited about politics. A new generation is finding its political voice.
But those who’ve been inspired by the Democratic candidates - particularly young voters and black voters who have supported Obama – may become casualties of this extended primary season.
It’s a hit the Democratic Party may not be able to easily recover from.
Consider:
- In Pennsylvania, more than one in 10 voters in the primary had registered as Democrats since the beginning of the year. According to the Associated Press, six in 10 of those new voters said in exit polls they were supporting Obama.
- A CBS/MTV poll of young voters done in mid-April found that two-thirds of voters under 30 felt they will have as much or more influence in determining the next president as older voters. That’s up dramatically from just last year, when just 17 percent felt that way. And despite seeing only minor differences in the candidates, those young voters favor Obama.
- Black voters have invested even more in Obama. In late 2007, polls showed black registered Democrats favored Clinton by a two-to-one margin. But there has been a dramatic turn within that voting bloc, with Obama securing nearly 90 percent of the black vote in the most recent primaries.
If the past 20 years is any indicator, we can take Clinton at her word that she’s “in it to win it.”
If she is able to fairly eke out a win, than the primary process will have worked. But there’s significant doubt among political experts that either candidate can muster up enough votes in the remaining primaries to win the number of pledged delegates necessary to secure the nomination.
And there’s even more doubt that Clinton can garner enough votes in the remaining primaries to overtake Obama’s small lead in the pledged delegate count.
Clinton is claiming a lead in the popular vote by counting votes in Michigan and Florida. But those two states violated party rules by moving up their primaries and votes from those contests won’t count in the overall totals.
Unless something drastic happens in the nine remaining Democratic contests, Clinton is unlikely to erase Obama's edge in the pledged delegate and popular vote tallies.
That leaves Clinton with two options that will force her to play rough: continue pushing for the delegates in Florida and Michigan to be seated and convince the superdelegates that she can lead the Democrats to victory in the fall against McCain.
By playing politics, Clinton is running the risk of alienating the voters most important to the future of the Democratic Party at a critical juncture. The animosity between both candidates is already leading some Democratic voters to tell pollsters they’ll vote for McCain if their candidate is not the nominee.
But it’s easy to imagine a scenario after the primaries end June 3, where Obama leads slightly in both the primary and popular vote but not by enough to secure the nomination.
If Clinton loses, her supporters will naturally be disappointed. But if she wins the nomination by using vote totals in Florida or Michigan, or convince superdelegates she’s the right pick, what would the fallout be? What would the conspiracy theories be?
It would not be far-fetched to think that some Democrats and Obama supporters would look at the political process in disgust, akin to what happened after the Bush-Gore contest in 2000.
If superdelegates decide the election for Clinton as the Supreme Court did for Bush in the 2000 race and nullify the popular vote, it may be near impossible for the Democrats to recover as they head into November.
In an election year that seemed tailor-made for Democrats to win, will they also have to mend the disappointment suffered by a large segment of their base if Clinton emerges victorious?
Being “in it to win it” might make a good campaign slogan. But being “in it to win it” at all costs may leave the Democrats unable “to win it” come November.
Contact Amy Dominello at 202-662-7671 or adominello@mediageneral.com