By Billy House
Media General News Service
Media General News Service
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee speaks to an issue during the CNN/YouTube Republican presidential debate last month.
By Kelvin Ma/Tampa Tribune File Photo
By Kelvin Ma/Tampa Tribune File Photo
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WASHINGTON -- A new poll shows Mike Huckabee rapidly gaining in Florida on front-running Rudy Giuliani in the race among Republican presidential primary candidates, propelled by heavy support among self-described religious voters.
The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll released today shows former New York City Mayor Giuliani still leading in the Sunshine State, with 28 percent support among registered Republicans who are likely to vote in the state’s Jan. 29 primary.
But Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, has moved into second with 21 percent, followed by former Massachusetts governor Romney at 20 percent. They are trailed by Arizona Sen. John McCain at 13 percent, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson with 8 percent.
The findings come on the heels of a Rasmussen Research poll last week on the Republican primary in Florida that showed Giuliani losing his lead in the state to Huckabee and Romney.
The Quinnipiac poll differs, showing Giuliani is still leading the field.
But both surveys suggest that Giuliani’s strategy of de-emphasizing the early primary and caucus states – Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – to rely on a big showing Jan. 29 in Florida for momentum heading into the 21 primaries to be held Feb. 5 may be in trouble.
On the Democratic side, the new poll shows New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton maintaining a commanding 2-1 lead over her closest competitor, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. She has 43 percent of the vote, Obama is at 21 percent, and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is at 19 percent.
The new Florida poll was conducted in from Dec. 12 through 18. It surveyed 397 likely Republican primary voters and 387 likely Democratic primary voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points for both parties.
This is the first poll that Quinnipiac has shifted its main focus from surveying all registered voters to the more narrowly defined “likely voter” category, so comparisons with past polls are limited, says Peter Brown, assistant director of the polling institute, based in Connecticut.
“But Huckabee has emerged as a factor in the GOP field, no matter how you count it – largely on strong support from white Evangelical Christians,” said Brown.
Among likely Republican primary voters who describe themselves in that way, Huckabee leads with 36 percent of their support, followed by Giuliani with 25 percent and Romney with 14 percent.
And among all registered Republican voters surveyed by Quinnipiac, Huckabee has seen his support grow steadily since July 23 from 1 percent to 15 percent, the poll shows, while Giuliani has gone from 30 percent to 28 percent. Romney has gone from 9 percent to 15 percent; McCain has stayed at 10 percent, and Thompson has seen his support drop from 18 percent to 6 percent.
But Brown said that most Republican voters “have not completely locked onto a candidate, so Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney all remain in play in Florida, and McCain could stage a comeback.”
Reporter Billy House can be reaches at bhouse@mediageneral.com or at 1 (202) 662-7673.
The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll released today shows former New York City Mayor Giuliani still leading in the Sunshine State, with 28 percent support among registered Republicans who are likely to vote in the state’s Jan. 29 primary.
But Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, has moved into second with 21 percent, followed by former Massachusetts governor Romney at 20 percent. They are trailed by Arizona Sen. John McCain at 13 percent, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson with 8 percent.
The findings come on the heels of a Rasmussen Research poll last week on the Republican primary in Florida that showed Giuliani losing his lead in the state to Huckabee and Romney.
The Quinnipiac poll differs, showing Giuliani is still leading the field.
But both surveys suggest that Giuliani’s strategy of de-emphasizing the early primary and caucus states – Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina – to rely on a big showing Jan. 29 in Florida for momentum heading into the 21 primaries to be held Feb. 5 may be in trouble.
On the Democratic side, the new poll shows New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton maintaining a commanding 2-1 lead over her closest competitor, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. She has 43 percent of the vote, Obama is at 21 percent, and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is at 19 percent.
The new Florida poll was conducted in from Dec. 12 through 18. It surveyed 397 likely Republican primary voters and 387 likely Democratic primary voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points for both parties.
This is the first poll that Quinnipiac has shifted its main focus from surveying all registered voters to the more narrowly defined “likely voter” category, so comparisons with past polls are limited, says Peter Brown, assistant director of the polling institute, based in Connecticut.
“But Huckabee has emerged as a factor in the GOP field, no matter how you count it – largely on strong support from white Evangelical Christians,” said Brown.
Among likely Republican primary voters who describe themselves in that way, Huckabee leads with 36 percent of their support, followed by Giuliani with 25 percent and Romney with 14 percent.
And among all registered Republican voters surveyed by Quinnipiac, Huckabee has seen his support grow steadily since July 23 from 1 percent to 15 percent, the poll shows, while Giuliani has gone from 30 percent to 28 percent. Romney has gone from 9 percent to 15 percent; McCain has stayed at 10 percent, and Thompson has seen his support drop from 18 percent to 6 percent.
But Brown said that most Republican voters “have not completely locked onto a candidate, so Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney all remain in play in Florida, and McCain could stage a comeback.”
Reporter Billy House can be reaches at bhouse@mediageneral.com or at 1 (202) 662-7673.