Media General News Service
Email to a Friend
Stumble It!
WASHINGTON - Hit by a wave of Republican retirements, House GOP leaders, including Florida Rep. Adam Putnam, find themselves at the helm of a leaky political ship as this fall's congressional elections approach.
Not since 1958 has a political party in the House minority faced such an uphill battle to merely keep the number of seats it has, much less gain ground on the majority.
"These retirements certainly have an impact on morale, and they are not particularly helpful," acknowledged Putman, who, as GOP conference chairman, ranks as the chamber's No. 3 Republican.
For Putnam, 33, the gloomy predictions for the GOP this fall also represent the inevitable flip side to what has been, up to now, a sort of personal silver lining in his own party's recent scandals and loss of power.
Putnam initially moved into the House GOP leadership in 2006 in a party reorganization after the resignation of former Majority Leader Tom DeLay. Then he was elevated by his colleagues to the No. 3 GOP post after Republicans lost the House majority in November 2006.
Only Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio and whip Roy Blunt of Missouri outrank him.
In his leadership role, Putnam has emerged as a constant, smart and energetic presence on national TV, the main House attack dog against majority Democrats on issues. He also has stepped up his travel and appearances in other forums, such as an ongoing series of public debates with Democratic leaders.
But now, dire predictions for his party's showing in House races this fall could mean the time has come for Putnam to pay the political piper for his swift ascendancy.
"The Republicans in the House are in deep trouble," said Steven Smith, a congressional and politics expert at Washington University in St. Louis.
Some congressional experts say all of this could have direct, serious repercussions on the career of Putnam, who has not ruled out running for statewide office, and the rest of the House GOP leadership team.
"Nothing ever goes well for the leaders of a party when they are about to experience a second serious electoral setback," said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow of governmental studies at the Brookings Institution.
Putnam insists he is not worrying about all of that.
But even he now seems to be scaling back expectations for Republicans in the upcoming congressional races.
"There's no question that the number of open seats we have to defend does take something away from our ability to go on offense as much as I would like," Putnam said.
The GOP is already down 33 seats to majority Democrats in the 435-seat House, 231-198. But now, Republicans must also contend with the exodus of their comrades who are retiring at the end of the year - 25, compared with just six Democrats who are retiring.
And those numbers don't take into account that four other House Republicans, including former Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois, have resigned, two of them to seek higher office. Special elections to fill those seats and those of California Democrat Tom Lantos and Indiana Democrat Julia Carson - who both have died - are scheduled between March and June.
To regain the majority, Republicans must keep those four seats and then pick up 16 more seats than the Democrats in November.
It is more likely that the GOP will see a net loss of seven to 12 seats in November, bringing their deficit in the House to 40 to 45 seats, said political analysts such as David Wasserman, an expert on the U.S. House with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Mann is among those predicting that the loss of GOP seats could even amount to more than a dozen and said "there's already great anxiety in the Republican ranks."
"The problem for them House GOP leaders is they are not much in a position to do anything about it," Mann said. "The election is being driven by the economy, the war, George Bush's great unpopularity, and by a belief that the conservative agenda may have run its course."
Adding to that anxiety is the prospect that Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois,, who already has shown he can attract and excite waves of new voters for his party, will likely be atop the opposing ticket, Smith said.
But more than anything, Smith suggested that Republicans are headed for trouble this fall because after so many years as part of the House majority, many are not eager to risk spending a second term in the minority.
"The question has become, is it worth it?" Smith said. "Is it worth it to run again, and risk defeat, just to return to the House and sit in the minority and do nothing but send out epithets to the Democrats?"
History Doesn't Bode Well
The Republican retirements, in many cases, mean the incumbent advantages the GOP likely would have held will disappear, to be replaced by more competitive campaigns.
The last time one party had to defend such a high percentage of seats in which the incumbent will not be seeking re-election was in 1958, when 27 Republicans retired and just six Democrats did, Wasserman said.
At that time, Wasserman said, voters were suffering from a bit of "Eisenhower fatigue" as they neared the close of Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower's second term in the White House.
Democrats that fall won 14 of the seats vacated by Republican retirees, Wasserman said, while the GOP won none of the six Democratic seats.
If that happens this year, Republican House members could be "dispirited," Mann said. Such an environment would inevitably lead to talk of leadership changes.
"Whether it leads to any serious challenges remains to be seen," Mann said, adding that it's hard to envision how replacing Boehner, Blunt and Putnam as party leaders would make much of a difference at that point.
At the very least, said Mann and other experts, the added loss of GOP foot soldiers will make it difficult for Putnam and other leaders to simply get anything done - or even matter much.
"My own view is that if we really do get a substantial Democratic victory across the board in November, including a comfortable margin for a Democratic president, then it's going to be much harder to hold the Republican Party together," Mann said.
Maneuvers In The Woods
Putnam acknowledges that he envisions a more-defensive GOP strategy to try to keep what seats the party has.
It's a strategy he likened in an interview to "running some drill action in the woods, trying not to expose ourselves to fire."
Even so, Putnam says there are still some signs for optimism.
"I think our country is still very divided, and we are a long way from November," Putnam said.
Although originally endorsing Fred Thompson for his party's presidential nomination, Putnam now says likely GOP nominee John McCain "is our best candidate," in part because "he appeals to independent and moderate voters."
Putnam also said he thinks there is "a sense out there" that with congressional approval ratings dipping even lower than when Republicans lost the majority, it is Democratic candidates who will have to defend a "very unpopular Congress."
"My sense is we have an opportunity here to lead the nation at an important time, and I hope to make the most of every moment," Putnam said.
Reporter Billy House can be reached at (202) 662-7673 or bhouse@mediageneral .com.
Here are the Congressional Districts or so-called “open seats” up for grabs in the U.S. House this fall, listed by the names of their incumbents who will not be running for re-election.There are 25 of those seats that are now held by Republicans; six are held by Democrats.
Republican seats:
Terry Everett, retiring from Alabama’s 2nd CD;
Rick Renzi, retiring from Arizona’s 1st CD;
John Doolittle, retiring from California’s 4th CD;
Duncan Hunter, retiring from California 52nd CD’
Tom Tancredo, retiring from Colorado’s 6th CD;
Dave Weldon, retiring from Florida’s 15 CD;
Jerry Weller, retiring from Illinois’ 11 CD;
Ray LaHood, retiring from Illinois’ 18 CD;
Ron Lewis, retiring from Kentucky’s 2nd CD;
Jim McCrery, retiring from Louisiana’s 4th CD;
Wayne Gilchrest, lost a primary, from Maryland’s 1st CD;
Jim Ramstad, retiring from Minnesota’s 3rd CD;
Kenny Hulshof, running for governor, from Missouri’s 9th CD;
Chip Pickering, retiring from Mississippi’s 3rd CD;
Jim Saxton, retiring, from New Jersey’s 3rd CD;
Mike Ferguson, retiring from New Jersey’s 7th CD;
Heather Wilson, running for U.S. Senate, from New Mexico’s 1st CD;
Steve Pearce, running for U.S. Senate, from New Mexico’s 2nd CD;
James Walsh, retiring from New York’s 25th CD;
David Hobson, retiring from Ohio’s 7th CD;
Deborah Pryce, retiring from Ohio’s 15th CD;
Ralph Regula, retiring from Ohio’s 16th CD;
John Peterson, retiring from Pennsylvania’s 5th CD;
Tom Davis, retiring from Virginia’s 11th CD;
Barbara Cubin, retiring from Wyoming’s at-large district.
Democratic seats
Mark Udall, running for U.S. Senate, from Colorado’s 2nd CD;
Tom Allen, running for U.S. Senate, from Maine’s 1st CD.
Al Wynn, lost primary, from Maryland’s 4th CD;
Tom Udall, running for U.S. Senate, from New Mexico’s 3rd CD;
Michael McNulty, retiring, from New York’s 21st CD;
Darlene Hooley, retiring, from Oregon’s 5th CD.
Here are current House seat vacancies identified by the departing lawmakers and their Congressional District. These seats are to be filled in special elections between March and June.
Republicans
Dennis Hastert, resigned from Illinois’ 14th CD on Nov. 27, 2007.
Bobby Jindal, Louisiana’s 1st CD (sworn in as governor on Jan. 14).
Richard Baker, resigned from Louisiana’s 6th CD on Feb. 2.
Roger Wicker, Mississippi’s 1st CD (appointed to U.S. Senate on Dec. 31, 2007).
Democrats
Julia Carson, Indiana’s 7th CD (died Dec. 15, 2007).
Tom Lantos, California’s 12th CD (died Feb. 11).
SOURCE: Cook Political Report and Media General’s Washington bureau.
Not since 1958 has a political party in the House minority faced such an uphill battle to merely keep the number of seats it has, much less gain ground on the majority.
"These retirements certainly have an impact on morale, and they are not particularly helpful," acknowledged Putman, who, as GOP conference chairman, ranks as the chamber's No. 3 Republican.
For Putnam, 33, the gloomy predictions for the GOP this fall also represent the inevitable flip side to what has been, up to now, a sort of personal silver lining in his own party's recent scandals and loss of power.
Putnam initially moved into the House GOP leadership in 2006 in a party reorganization after the resignation of former Majority Leader Tom DeLay. Then he was elevated by his colleagues to the No. 3 GOP post after Republicans lost the House majority in November 2006.
Only Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio and whip Roy Blunt of Missouri outrank him.
In his leadership role, Putnam has emerged as a constant, smart and energetic presence on national TV, the main House attack dog against majority Democrats on issues. He also has stepped up his travel and appearances in other forums, such as an ongoing series of public debates with Democratic leaders.
But now, dire predictions for his party's showing in House races this fall could mean the time has come for Putnam to pay the political piper for his swift ascendancy.
"The Republicans in the House are in deep trouble," said Steven Smith, a congressional and politics expert at Washington University in St. Louis.
Some congressional experts say all of this could have direct, serious repercussions on the career of Putnam, who has not ruled out running for statewide office, and the rest of the House GOP leadership team.
"Nothing ever goes well for the leaders of a party when they are about to experience a second serious electoral setback," said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow of governmental studies at the Brookings Institution.
Putnam insists he is not worrying about all of that.
But even he now seems to be scaling back expectations for Republicans in the upcoming congressional races.
"There's no question that the number of open seats we have to defend does take something away from our ability to go on offense as much as I would like," Putnam said.
The GOP is already down 33 seats to majority Democrats in the 435-seat House, 231-198. But now, Republicans must also contend with the exodus of their comrades who are retiring at the end of the year - 25, compared with just six Democrats who are retiring.
And those numbers don't take into account that four other House Republicans, including former Speaker Dennis Hastert of Illinois, have resigned, two of them to seek higher office. Special elections to fill those seats and those of California Democrat Tom Lantos and Indiana Democrat Julia Carson - who both have died - are scheduled between March and June.
To regain the majority, Republicans must keep those four seats and then pick up 16 more seats than the Democrats in November.
It is more likely that the GOP will see a net loss of seven to 12 seats in November, bringing their deficit in the House to 40 to 45 seats, said political analysts such as David Wasserman, an expert on the U.S. House with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Mann is among those predicting that the loss of GOP seats could even amount to more than a dozen and said "there's already great anxiety in the Republican ranks."
"The problem for them House GOP leaders is they are not much in a position to do anything about it," Mann said. "The election is being driven by the economy, the war, George Bush's great unpopularity, and by a belief that the conservative agenda may have run its course."
Adding to that anxiety is the prospect that Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois,, who already has shown he can attract and excite waves of new voters for his party, will likely be atop the opposing ticket, Smith said.
But more than anything, Smith suggested that Republicans are headed for trouble this fall because after so many years as part of the House majority, many are not eager to risk spending a second term in the minority.
"The question has become, is it worth it?" Smith said. "Is it worth it to run again, and risk defeat, just to return to the House and sit in the minority and do nothing but send out epithets to the Democrats?"
History Doesn't Bode Well
The Republican retirements, in many cases, mean the incumbent advantages the GOP likely would have held will disappear, to be replaced by more competitive campaigns.
The last time one party had to defend such a high percentage of seats in which the incumbent will not be seeking re-election was in 1958, when 27 Republicans retired and just six Democrats did, Wasserman said.
At that time, Wasserman said, voters were suffering from a bit of "Eisenhower fatigue" as they neared the close of Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower's second term in the White House.
Democrats that fall won 14 of the seats vacated by Republican retirees, Wasserman said, while the GOP won none of the six Democratic seats.
If that happens this year, Republican House members could be "dispirited," Mann said. Such an environment would inevitably lead to talk of leadership changes.
"Whether it leads to any serious challenges remains to be seen," Mann said, adding that it's hard to envision how replacing Boehner, Blunt and Putnam as party leaders would make much of a difference at that point.
At the very least, said Mann and other experts, the added loss of GOP foot soldiers will make it difficult for Putnam and other leaders to simply get anything done - or even matter much.
"My own view is that if we really do get a substantial Democratic victory across the board in November, including a comfortable margin for a Democratic president, then it's going to be much harder to hold the Republican Party together," Mann said.
Maneuvers In The Woods
Putnam acknowledges that he envisions a more-defensive GOP strategy to try to keep what seats the party has.
It's a strategy he likened in an interview to "running some drill action in the woods, trying not to expose ourselves to fire."
Even so, Putnam says there are still some signs for optimism.
"I think our country is still very divided, and we are a long way from November," Putnam said.
Although originally endorsing Fred Thompson for his party's presidential nomination, Putnam now says likely GOP nominee John McCain "is our best candidate," in part because "he appeals to independent and moderate voters."
Putnam also said he thinks there is "a sense out there" that with congressional approval ratings dipping even lower than when Republicans lost the majority, it is Democratic candidates who will have to defend a "very unpopular Congress."
"My sense is we have an opportunity here to lead the nation at an important time, and I hope to make the most of every moment," Putnam said.
Reporter Billy House can be reached at (202) 662-7673 or bhouse@mediageneral .com.
Here are the Congressional Districts or so-called “open seats” up for grabs in the U.S. House this fall, listed by the names of their incumbents who will not be running for re-election.There are 25 of those seats that are now held by Republicans; six are held by Democrats.
Republican seats:
Terry Everett, retiring from Alabama’s 2nd CD;
Rick Renzi, retiring from Arizona’s 1st CD;
John Doolittle, retiring from California’s 4th CD;
Duncan Hunter, retiring from California 52nd CD’
Tom Tancredo, retiring from Colorado’s 6th CD;
Dave Weldon, retiring from Florida’s 15 CD;
Jerry Weller, retiring from Illinois’ 11 CD;
Ray LaHood, retiring from Illinois’ 18 CD;
Ron Lewis, retiring from Kentucky’s 2nd CD;
Jim McCrery, retiring from Louisiana’s 4th CD;
Wayne Gilchrest, lost a primary, from Maryland’s 1st CD;
Jim Ramstad, retiring from Minnesota’s 3rd CD;
Kenny Hulshof, running for governor, from Missouri’s 9th CD;
Chip Pickering, retiring from Mississippi’s 3rd CD;
Jim Saxton, retiring, from New Jersey’s 3rd CD;
Mike Ferguson, retiring from New Jersey’s 7th CD;
Heather Wilson, running for U.S. Senate, from New Mexico’s 1st CD;
Steve Pearce, running for U.S. Senate, from New Mexico’s 2nd CD;
James Walsh, retiring from New York’s 25th CD;
David Hobson, retiring from Ohio’s 7th CD;
Deborah Pryce, retiring from Ohio’s 15th CD;
Ralph Regula, retiring from Ohio’s 16th CD;
John Peterson, retiring from Pennsylvania’s 5th CD;
Tom Davis, retiring from Virginia’s 11th CD;
Barbara Cubin, retiring from Wyoming’s at-large district.
Democratic seats
Mark Udall, running for U.S. Senate, from Colorado’s 2nd CD;
Tom Allen, running for U.S. Senate, from Maine’s 1st CD.
Al Wynn, lost primary, from Maryland’s 4th CD;
Tom Udall, running for U.S. Senate, from New Mexico’s 3rd CD;
Michael McNulty, retiring, from New York’s 21st CD;
Darlene Hooley, retiring, from Oregon’s 5th CD.
Here are current House seat vacancies identified by the departing lawmakers and their Congressional District. These seats are to be filled in special elections between March and June.
Republicans
Dennis Hastert, resigned from Illinois’ 14th CD on Nov. 27, 2007.
Bobby Jindal, Louisiana’s 1st CD (sworn in as governor on Jan. 14).
Richard Baker, resigned from Louisiana’s 6th CD on Feb. 2.
Roger Wicker, Mississippi’s 1st CD (appointed to U.S. Senate on Dec. 31, 2007).
Democrats
Julia Carson, Indiana’s 7th CD (died Dec. 15, 2007).
Tom Lantos, California’s 12th CD (died Feb. 11).
SOURCE: Cook Political Report and Media General’s Washington bureau.