By Billy House
Media General News Service
Media General News Service
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TAMPA -- Florida primary voters won’t have the final say on who will be the Republican nominee for president.
But they will likely have a huge say on who is left standing to fight on.
Florida's Jan. 29 GOP primary could be a showdown between John McCain and Mitt Romney, said several national political analysts in interviews today.
However, in this topsy-turvy election season, few were ready to suggest that Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee aren’t also squarely in the mix in the contest that will present the candidates their biggest and most diverse state so far.
And the state also presents McCain with a voter landscape he hasn't faced so far — a closed primary in which only registered Republicans can vote, depriving McCain of the independents who provided the margin of victory in his wins so far.
But with a McCain victory next week in Florida – following his victories Saturday night in South Carolina and earlier in New Hampshire – the Arizona senator’s drive for the GOP nomination will be very difficult to derail, the analysts agreed.
Florida’s 57 delegates will represent the biggest single prize so far, along with a huge momentum boost headed into Feb. 5. That’s when 1,081 delegates will be up for grabs as 21 states will hold their own GOP primaries or caucuses.
“If anyone wants to stop John McCain, they better do it in Florida,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
If they do not, Romney (who can claim wins three contests in Wyoming, Michigan and Nevada) might be the only candidate left to seriously challenge McCain going into Feb. 5’s “Super-Duper Tuesday voting, said Brown.
For Giuliani, “It’s do or die,”” adds Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist (College) Institute for Public Opinion, of Florida.
The former New York City mayor, who was once the GOP front-runner in national and Florida polls, has been staking his hopes on a big victory in Florida’s winner-take-all primary and the momentum it could provide going into Feb. 5.
But his strategy of camping out in Florida while rivals McCain, Romney and Huckabee have competed in and won in early contests elsewhere has taken its toll.
Before McCain's South Carolina win, a Quinnipiac poll last week showed McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee in a statistical dead-heat in Florida, and a state Chamber of Commerce poll showed McCain, Giuliani and Romney all within a point of each other, with Huckabee in fourth place.
But those numbers represented a major advance for McCain and a decline for Giuliani.
Romney and Giuliani have built by far the strongest organizations in the state – Romney has been at work here for more than a year.
The challenge facing them all is that Florida will be the biggest and most diverse state to vote so far, said Frank Luntz, a pollster and focus-group expert.
Each candidate will have appeal in some, but not all, voter groups and geographic areas.
Huckabee, despite his setback in South Carolina, remains a player who will do well in the conservative, religious Panhandle, Luntz said. He also noted that in South Carolina, Huckabee beat McCain among older voters, a key Florida voting bloc.
McCain is likely to run well in areas heavy with military personnel, and Giuliani in retiree havens laden with former New Yorkers. Romney has strength in the Tampa Bay area and the Interstate 4 corridor.
Giuliani is in a pitched battle with McCain for support from Miami's Cuban-Americans. They lean toward Giuliani, South Florida political experts have said.
But McCain may get help from a prominent endorser, Sen. Joe Lieberman, whose tough anti-Castro stance makes him popular among Cuban exiles, while he also has strong appeal to the large South Florida Jewish communities.
For the candidates, who are limited in both time and cash, the aim is to identify and appeal to a winning mix of the state’s veterans, conservatives, evangelicals, seniors, suburban moms, Cubans and other Hispanics, long-time Floridians and new transplants.
Economic issues, like elsewhere, have emerged as a key issue nationally. But in Florida they also come attached with worries over sky-high property taxes and insurance rates – as well as Social Security reform and veterans issues. Immigration reform issues also resound in the state with a population estimated to be as much as 5 percent undocumented immigrants.
While Romney goes into Florida with three wins under his belt, Brown said those contests in Wyoming, Michigan and Nevada were essentially “home cooking” for the former Massachusetts governor. Michigan was where he was born and his father was a governor, and he ran largely uncontested in Wyoming and Nevada.
“His home stand is over. Now, he out on the road,” said Brown of Romney’s Florida effort.
But Romney also is a candidate who might be able to withstand a loss in Florida. Unlike other candidates, Romney’s own personal fortune might help to carry him to deeper into the primaries.
“He’s got the advantage of an unlimited checkbook; the question is what will he do with it?” said Brown.
McCain’s big South Carolina victory also is expected to boost his cash-strapped campaign’s fund-raising.
Tampa Tribune reporter William March contributed to this story. Reporter Billy House can be reached at bhouse@mediageneral.com or at (202) 662-7673.
But they will likely have a huge say on who is left standing to fight on.
Florida's Jan. 29 GOP primary could be a showdown between John McCain and Mitt Romney, said several national political analysts in interviews today.
However, in this topsy-turvy election season, few were ready to suggest that Rudy Giuliani and Mike Huckabee aren’t also squarely in the mix in the contest that will present the candidates their biggest and most diverse state so far.
And the state also presents McCain with a voter landscape he hasn't faced so far — a closed primary in which only registered Republicans can vote, depriving McCain of the independents who provided the margin of victory in his wins so far.
But with a McCain victory next week in Florida – following his victories Saturday night in South Carolina and earlier in New Hampshire – the Arizona senator’s drive for the GOP nomination will be very difficult to derail, the analysts agreed.
Florida’s 57 delegates will represent the biggest single prize so far, along with a huge momentum boost headed into Feb. 5. That’s when 1,081 delegates will be up for grabs as 21 states will hold their own GOP primaries or caucuses.
“If anyone wants to stop John McCain, they better do it in Florida,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
If they do not, Romney (who can claim wins three contests in Wyoming, Michigan and Nevada) might be the only candidate left to seriously challenge McCain going into Feb. 5’s “Super-Duper Tuesday voting, said Brown.
For Giuliani, “It’s do or die,”” adds Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist (College) Institute for Public Opinion, of Florida.
The former New York City mayor, who was once the GOP front-runner in national and Florida polls, has been staking his hopes on a big victory in Florida’s winner-take-all primary and the momentum it could provide going into Feb. 5.
But his strategy of camping out in Florida while rivals McCain, Romney and Huckabee have competed in and won in early contests elsewhere has taken its toll.
Before McCain's South Carolina win, a Quinnipiac poll last week showed McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee in a statistical dead-heat in Florida, and a state Chamber of Commerce poll showed McCain, Giuliani and Romney all within a point of each other, with Huckabee in fourth place.
But those numbers represented a major advance for McCain and a decline for Giuliani.
Romney and Giuliani have built by far the strongest organizations in the state – Romney has been at work here for more than a year.
The challenge facing them all is that Florida will be the biggest and most diverse state to vote so far, said Frank Luntz, a pollster and focus-group expert.
Each candidate will have appeal in some, but not all, voter groups and geographic areas.
Huckabee, despite his setback in South Carolina, remains a player who will do well in the conservative, religious Panhandle, Luntz said. He also noted that in South Carolina, Huckabee beat McCain among older voters, a key Florida voting bloc.
McCain is likely to run well in areas heavy with military personnel, and Giuliani in retiree havens laden with former New Yorkers. Romney has strength in the Tampa Bay area and the Interstate 4 corridor.
Giuliani is in a pitched battle with McCain for support from Miami's Cuban-Americans. They lean toward Giuliani, South Florida political experts have said.
But McCain may get help from a prominent endorser, Sen. Joe Lieberman, whose tough anti-Castro stance makes him popular among Cuban exiles, while he also has strong appeal to the large South Florida Jewish communities.
For the candidates, who are limited in both time and cash, the aim is to identify and appeal to a winning mix of the state’s veterans, conservatives, evangelicals, seniors, suburban moms, Cubans and other Hispanics, long-time Floridians and new transplants.
Economic issues, like elsewhere, have emerged as a key issue nationally. But in Florida they also come attached with worries over sky-high property taxes and insurance rates – as well as Social Security reform and veterans issues. Immigration reform issues also resound in the state with a population estimated to be as much as 5 percent undocumented immigrants.
While Romney goes into Florida with three wins under his belt, Brown said those contests in Wyoming, Michigan and Nevada were essentially “home cooking” for the former Massachusetts governor. Michigan was where he was born and his father was a governor, and he ran largely uncontested in Wyoming and Nevada.
“His home stand is over. Now, he out on the road,” said Brown of Romney’s Florida effort.
But Romney also is a candidate who might be able to withstand a loss in Florida. Unlike other candidates, Romney’s own personal fortune might help to carry him to deeper into the primaries.
“He’s got the advantage of an unlimited checkbook; the question is what will he do with it?” said Brown.
McCain’s big South Carolina victory also is expected to boost his cash-strapped campaign’s fund-raising.
Tampa Tribune reporter William March contributed to this story. Reporter Billy House can be reached at bhouse@mediageneral.com or at (202) 662-7673.