By Billy House and William March/Media General News Service
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With the finish line of the long presidential race in sight, the battle for Florida and other key swing states becomes a two-month sprint, with voters now having a choice now of not only ideology, but also history.
After their convention last week in St. Paul, Minn., Republicans garnered a new burst of energy behind their campaign, tied to Sen. John McCain's surprise selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, the first woman the party has ever nominated for vice president.
Democrats, who met the week before in Denver, made Sen. Barack Obama the first black nominated for president by a major American political party. They seemed less unified, however, their wounds still fresh from the tough primary battle between Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Obama.
Only in the past week, in reaction to the GOP convention and McCain's choice of Palin, have some hard-core Clinton supporters, including former Tampa Mayor Sandy Freedman and Clerk of Court Pat Frank, declared their allegiance to Obama.
Political experts say Florida clearly will be one of the top battleground states - maybe the top - in this dash to Nov. 4, as it has been in the past two election cycles.
'Premiere Battleground State'
Once again, as in 2000 and 2004, Florida is the largest state that's considered winnable for either party, and the one swing state that McCain must win to become president. McCain has publicly declared that he can't win without Florida, noted spokesman Mario Diaz; Obama state director Steve Schale calls it "the premiere battleground state."
Going into the conventions, most pollsters considered the state nearly deadlocked. A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll for The Tampa Tribune showed Obama with a 1-point lead - in effect, a tie.
A Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey Aug. 17-24 showed McCain up 47 percent to 43 percent in the state. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, making that a virtual deadlock as well.
Nationally, tracking polls show Obama with a narrow lead after the conventions, but to the campaigns, the race is no longer about votes nationwide - it's about winning states in the Electoral College.
No published polling has been done in Florida since the conventions, and pollsters can only speculate on how Obama's speech in Denver and McCain's running-mate choice affected public opinion.
"I don't think the conventions will change a lot in Florida," said Jim Kitchens, a Democratic-oriented Florida pollster. His poll for the Florida Chamber of Commerce showed McCain about 3 points up - also a statistical tie - before the conventions.
"I think we'll be in the margin of error through election night," he said.
In the first post-convention sign of the importance of Florida's 27 electoral votes, Clinton is planning to visit Kissimmee and Tampa today for pro-Obama rallies focusing on the differences between McCain and Obama regarding the economy and health care.
There were tentative plans for Palin to tour Florida, including a Tampa stop today, also. But those plans were canceled, GOP Sen. Mel Martinez and local McCain campaign officials said.
The plans for campaigning here by Clinton and Palin likely were aimed at the crucial women's vote, in which Obama apparently is benefiting from a major "gender gap."
In the Mason-Dixon poll conducted before McCain's vice presidential choice was announced, Obama won 51 percent to 39 percent among women, but McCain held the advantage among men, winning 51 percent to 37 percent.
McCain Ad Targets Obama
In June and July, Obama carpet-bombed Florida with advertising.
On Friday, the McCain-Palin campaign and the Republican National Committee targeted Florida for a new ad called "Temple," which continues their portrayal of Obama as a celebrity, charges that he opposes more offshore drilling and claims he really represents old liberal ideas like higher taxes, not change.
That ad will also run in Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - a hint of which states the McCain team considers keys to a win in November.
Kitchens said the three keys to Florida for Obama are the large number of new Democratic registrants his candidacy has inspired, and whether they turn out to vote; the youth vote; and the Jewish vote.
Young and black voters are less likely to go to the polls, and Obama has had difficulty establishing trust with Jewish retirees in South Florida.
"He has to have two of those three to win," Kitchens said.
But McCain also faces uncertainty.
When President Bush won in 2000 and 2004, the governor of Florida was his brother, Jeb Bush, who dominated the Republican Party more firmly than Gov. Charlie Crist does now; and 2006, when Democrats gained seats in the state House, the congressional delegation and the state Cabinet, was the best election for Democrats in a decade.
Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown says independent voters, who backed McCain 47 percent to 39 percent in the mid-August poll, likely will decide the race.
More than half of the Florida voters in the Quinnipiac poll, 52 percent, said the economy is the most important issue; they trust Obama over McCain, 46 percent to 42 percent, to handle it.
They also trust Obama, by 48 percent to 44 percent, as better able to handle the energy crisis.
But the respondents trust McCain more, 53 percent to 35 percent, to handle relations with Russia; by 45 percent to 42 percent to handle a natural disaster such as a hurricane; and by 56 percent to 33 percent to handle a terrorist incident in the United States.
In another sign of the race's tightness in Florida, several of these "trust" preferences were close to the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Reporter Billy House can be reached at (202) 662-7673 or bhouse@mediageneral.com. Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.
After their convention last week in St. Paul, Minn., Republicans garnered a new burst of energy behind their campaign, tied to Sen. John McCain's surprise selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, the first woman the party has ever nominated for vice president.
Democrats, who met the week before in Denver, made Sen. Barack Obama the first black nominated for president by a major American political party. They seemed less unified, however, their wounds still fresh from the tough primary battle between Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Obama.
Only in the past week, in reaction to the GOP convention and McCain's choice of Palin, have some hard-core Clinton supporters, including former Tampa Mayor Sandy Freedman and Clerk of Court Pat Frank, declared their allegiance to Obama.
Political experts say Florida clearly will be one of the top battleground states - maybe the top - in this dash to Nov. 4, as it has been in the past two election cycles.
'Premiere Battleground State'
Once again, as in 2000 and 2004, Florida is the largest state that's considered winnable for either party, and the one swing state that McCain must win to become president. McCain has publicly declared that he can't win without Florida, noted spokesman Mario Diaz; Obama state director Steve Schale calls it "the premiere battleground state."
Going into the conventions, most pollsters considered the state nearly deadlocked. A Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll for The Tampa Tribune showed Obama with a 1-point lead - in effect, a tie.
A Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey Aug. 17-24 showed McCain up 47 percent to 43 percent in the state. That poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, making that a virtual deadlock as well.
Nationally, tracking polls show Obama with a narrow lead after the conventions, but to the campaigns, the race is no longer about votes nationwide - it's about winning states in the Electoral College.
No published polling has been done in Florida since the conventions, and pollsters can only speculate on how Obama's speech in Denver and McCain's running-mate choice affected public opinion.
"I don't think the conventions will change a lot in Florida," said Jim Kitchens, a Democratic-oriented Florida pollster. His poll for the Florida Chamber of Commerce showed McCain about 3 points up - also a statistical tie - before the conventions.
"I think we'll be in the margin of error through election night," he said.
In the first post-convention sign of the importance of Florida's 27 electoral votes, Clinton is planning to visit Kissimmee and Tampa today for pro-Obama rallies focusing on the differences between McCain and Obama regarding the economy and health care.
There were tentative plans for Palin to tour Florida, including a Tampa stop today, also. But those plans were canceled, GOP Sen. Mel Martinez and local McCain campaign officials said.
The plans for campaigning here by Clinton and Palin likely were aimed at the crucial women's vote, in which Obama apparently is benefiting from a major "gender gap."
In the Mason-Dixon poll conducted before McCain's vice presidential choice was announced, Obama won 51 percent to 39 percent among women, but McCain held the advantage among men, winning 51 percent to 37 percent.
McCain Ad Targets Obama
In June and July, Obama carpet-bombed Florida with advertising.
On Friday, the McCain-Palin campaign and the Republican National Committee targeted Florida for a new ad called "Temple," which continues their portrayal of Obama as a celebrity, charges that he opposes more offshore drilling and claims he really represents old liberal ideas like higher taxes, not change.
That ad will also run in Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin - a hint of which states the McCain team considers keys to a win in November.
Kitchens said the three keys to Florida for Obama are the large number of new Democratic registrants his candidacy has inspired, and whether they turn out to vote; the youth vote; and the Jewish vote.
Young and black voters are less likely to go to the polls, and Obama has had difficulty establishing trust with Jewish retirees in South Florida.
"He has to have two of those three to win," Kitchens said.
But McCain also faces uncertainty.
When President Bush won in 2000 and 2004, the governor of Florida was his brother, Jeb Bush, who dominated the Republican Party more firmly than Gov. Charlie Crist does now; and 2006, when Democrats gained seats in the state House, the congressional delegation and the state Cabinet, was the best election for Democrats in a decade.
Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown says independent voters, who backed McCain 47 percent to 39 percent in the mid-August poll, likely will decide the race.
More than half of the Florida voters in the Quinnipiac poll, 52 percent, said the economy is the most important issue; they trust Obama over McCain, 46 percent to 42 percent, to handle it.
They also trust Obama, by 48 percent to 44 percent, as better able to handle the energy crisis.
But the respondents trust McCain more, 53 percent to 35 percent, to handle relations with Russia; by 45 percent to 42 percent to handle a natural disaster such as a hurricane; and by 56 percent to 33 percent to handle a terrorist incident in the United States.
In another sign of the race's tightness in Florida, several of these "trust" preferences were close to the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Reporter Billy House can be reached at (202) 662-7673 or bhouse@mediageneral.com. Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.