Washington Bureau

Experts Handicap Vice Presidential Debate


By BILLY HOUSE, Media General News Service
October 01 2008 | text size: small medium large
Email a FriendEmail to a Friend
Printer Friendly
Stumble It!
Digg!
Most Popular Stories
WASHINGTON -- Thursday’s vice presidential debate in St. Louis between Sen. Joe Biden and Gov. Sarah Palin will showcase two candidates with contrasting styles, personal backgrounds, and political experiences.

The candidates also carry the baggage of gender stereotypes, and with that, additional expectations of things they shouldn’t say or do.

Just ask then-Vice President George H.W. Bush, who caught flak in 1984 after saying, unknowingly, into an open microphone: “We tried to kick a little --- last night” the morning after a debate with Democrat Geraldine Ferarro.

Or ask former -U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio of New York, who touched off a brouhaha for being too aggressive in a 2000 U.S. Senate race debate when he approached his opponent, then-First Lady Hillary Clinton, wagging his finger to make a point.

Palin’s confidence and even brashness in her GOP convention speech and early campaign appearances as John McCain’s running mate projected someone ready to shake-up Washington, and any “good ol’ boy network” within the Beltway.

But that has given way to questions, amplified by her often rambling performances in TV interviews, about her readiness for the job. The McCain team has responded with her near-sequestration, and complaints of unfair treatment of her by the media because Palin is a woman.

For his part, Biden has shown that he also is not gaffe-proof as Democrat Barack Obama’s running mate, although he is an experienced U.S. senator with significant foreign-policy credentials.

Media General News Service talked to three analysts about what to watch for in Thursday’s debate.

The three are:


Deborah Tannen, a Georgetown University linguistics professor best known as the author of "You Just Don't Understand: Women and Men in Conversation," a New York Times best seller.Allan Louden, a campaign rhetoric and political communications expert at Wake Forest University in Winston Salem, N.C.Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist (College) Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., which this week released a poll of voter expectations going into the debate.



Here's what they said:

Media General: PBS' Gwen Ifill is moderator of the 90-minute debate. Does a woman moderator deliver a different dynamic for the debate than would a man?

Louden: "It may help Biden. Ifill can keep hammering Palin with tough questions. If a man were to do so he might be accused of piling on against a woman."

Tannen: "I'll know after I see how Gwen Ifill behaves. There's always the danger that someone wants to appear so tough, that they're going to act overly aggressive."

Miringoff: "Palin goes into the debate with top honors when it comes to likeability – 65 percent of voters believe she will come across as more likeable, while just 23 percent think Biden will … It's tough to say how that dynamic (Ifill's role) will play out."



Media General: What must Palin do to perform well in this debate?

Louden: "She needs to go back to themes of her convention speech, and talk about what she knows… let Sarah be Sarah. There is a charm there, and people do like people telling the elite – whatever that means – to go to hell. If she is as competent as she was in her Alaskan (gubernatorial) debates, she will do fine. The problem is the topics have changed."

Tannen: "The major framing themes of the debate are concerns or expectations that Joe Biden is so much more knowledgeable and experienced and capable. With expectations set so low for her, (it's almost as if) she will be seen as doing well if she just puts two sentences together."

Miringoff: "You can prepare her for questions on all kinds of topics, but you can't script what is going to happen. The expectations are low for her."



Media General: What must Biden do to perform well in this debate?

Louden: "Answer questions directly and succinctly. And then he ought to be quiet and let Ifill go out after Palin for the both of them."

Tannen: "It's an interesting challenge for him, in that everybody is assuming he knows so much more … It's important how he controls himself in expressing what he knows. And there's always a danger that he may seem to be coming on too strong."

Miringoff: "He has to be careful with how he addresses her and deals with her in the debate. He's never been seen as someone particularly careful with his words."



Media General: What does Palin have to steer clear of doing in the debate?

Louden: "It ought to be reasonable to say ‘I don't know' about something. More of us ought to be able to do that. But if she even hints that's the case during a question, it will play into what many people want to believe -- that she does not have the knowledge needed to be vice president."

Tannen: "The thing that's been troubling is how the accusation of sexism has been used as a way to bar any sort of hard questioning of her, and that the press has been (accused of) playing ‘gotcha.' But she can't (make that claim) herself or she'll be seen as a whiner."

Miringoff: "She has to avoid those breakdown moments in her answers (occasions where she has no response, or seems to ramble on or be winging it.)"



Media General: What does Biden have to avoid doing?

Louden: "He should not be patronizing, and he should not lecture her (Palin) in any way, like what McCain tried to do to Obama … Bush tried that with Ferraro, and she responded that "I don't appreciate being lectured."

Tannen: "Everybody refers to Rick Lazio. There should be no physical invasions of her space, but he (Biden) must also be aware of verbal intrusions on her. He's also got to be careful not to seem so smart …it's nothing new, there this theme in American politics that intelligence and education are somehow stigmatizing."

Miringoff: "Any perception that he is bullying her won't work (for him), although she also comes on very strong."



Media General: Any predictions on who will win?

Louden: "She is going to do better than people expect. But there's going to be at least one moment where she does not know an answer, and people afterward will devote a lot of attention to that."

Tannen: No. But the key issue should be less about her being female, than her qualifications."

Miringoff: "Regardless of whom they support, 71 percent of Democrats say Biden will win the debate while 66 percent of Republicans think Palin will. By a difference of 6 percentage points – 41 to 35 – Independents believe Biden will win."

Reporter Billy House can be reached at bhouse@mediageneral.com or at 1 (202) 662-7673.

-- Advertisement --