By Sean Mussenden
Media General News Service
Media General News Service
By Florence Morning News/File Photo
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CLEMSON, S.C. - Four years ago, Dorothy Jones' vote for John Edwards helped propel him to victory in South Carolina's Democratic presidential primary.
This year, Edwards cannot depend on her vote.
With Democratic front-runners Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on the ballot, Jones, an African-American woman from Clemson, said she remains undecided, but is leaning slightly towards Clinton.
"She's got the most experience," Jones said.
Edwards returned to South Carolina on Wednesday hoping to kick start his flagging campaign in the state of his birth.
At a campaign stop at Clemson University - just miles from Seneca, where he was born - Edwards said he will continue his campaign despite his failure to win in Iowa and New Hampshire, and pledged to fight on "all the way to the White House."
"So far, there have been two contests -- Iowa where I finished second and New Hampshire where I finished third. And your voice here in South Carolina is going to be heard," he told about 300 supporters.
Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina, said the South Carolina primary Jan. 26 will be key to that effort. But political observers say the reluctance of black women like Jones to again back Edwards underscores the difficult battle Edwards faces.
Nearly half the voters in the Democratic primary are expected to be African-Americans, and they played an important role in Edwards' 2004 victory.
This time, though, polls show blacks are largely split between Obama and Clinton. A poll by Rasmussen Reports earlier this week put Edwards at 14 percent, compared with 30 percent for Clinton and 32 percent for Obama.
"I don't think South Carolina is rejecting John Edwards. His message really resonated in 2004, and it resonates now, but voters have more options," said Scott Huffman, a political scientist at South Carolina's Winthrop University.
"Edwards is not going to win South Carolina. There's nothing he can do to win South Carolina," Huffman said. It's a view widely shared by political scientists here.
In 2004, Edwards defeated John Kerry, a white senator from Massachusetts. This time, he faces a woman - Hillary Clinton - and another African-American - Obama.
"It's hard for him to get past that," said J. David Woodard, a political scientist and pollster at Clemson University, Woodard said.
The racial makeup of the crowd at Clemson highlighted the difficulty Edwards faces. Only a small handful of supporters was black. Adedoyin Salami, a Clemson student, dropped by to hear Edwards -- while wearing an Obama sticker.
"I like him, but I feel he has it wrong on a few foreign policy issues," he said of Edwards.
Edwards supporters, however, say it's too early to count him out. Maureen Goodyear, of Taylors, S.C., who is white, voted for him in 2004 and plans to vote for him again this year.
"It's a lot longer race than just two states. His message is still strong, and once we get this whoop-de-doo with Obama and Clinton behind us, people will start paying attention to him," she said at the Clemson rally.
Tim Dale, who studies campaigns and elections at the University of South Carolina, also said he doubts Edwards will win.
"We might be looking at Edwards' last stand here in South Carolina. He's going to have a really good showing here to stay in it," Dale said.
But he urged caution in writing Edwards off. "If it's one thing...New Hampshire showed us," the polls and pundits might be wrong, he said, referring to Clinton's unexpected victory.
(What do you think? Comment below.)
This year, Edwards cannot depend on her vote.
With Democratic front-runners Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton on the ballot, Jones, an African-American woman from Clemson, said she remains undecided, but is leaning slightly towards Clinton.
"She's got the most experience," Jones said.
Edwards returned to South Carolina on Wednesday hoping to kick start his flagging campaign in the state of his birth.
At a campaign stop at Clemson University - just miles from Seneca, where he was born - Edwards said he will continue his campaign despite his failure to win in Iowa and New Hampshire, and pledged to fight on "all the way to the White House."
"So far, there have been two contests -- Iowa where I finished second and New Hampshire where I finished third. And your voice here in South Carolina is going to be heard," he told about 300 supporters.
Edwards, a former senator from North Carolina, said the South Carolina primary Jan. 26 will be key to that effort. But political observers say the reluctance of black women like Jones to again back Edwards underscores the difficult battle Edwards faces.
Nearly half the voters in the Democratic primary are expected to be African-Americans, and they played an important role in Edwards' 2004 victory.
This time, though, polls show blacks are largely split between Obama and Clinton. A poll by Rasmussen Reports earlier this week put Edwards at 14 percent, compared with 30 percent for Clinton and 32 percent for Obama.
"I don't think South Carolina is rejecting John Edwards. His message really resonated in 2004, and it resonates now, but voters have more options," said Scott Huffman, a political scientist at South Carolina's Winthrop University.
"Edwards is not going to win South Carolina. There's nothing he can do to win South Carolina," Huffman said. It's a view widely shared by political scientists here.
In 2004, Edwards defeated John Kerry, a white senator from Massachusetts. This time, he faces a woman - Hillary Clinton - and another African-American - Obama.
"It's hard for him to get past that," said J. David Woodard, a political scientist and pollster at Clemson University, Woodard said.
The racial makeup of the crowd at Clemson highlighted the difficulty Edwards faces. Only a small handful of supporters was black. Adedoyin Salami, a Clemson student, dropped by to hear Edwards -- while wearing an Obama sticker.
"I like him, but I feel he has it wrong on a few foreign policy issues," he said of Edwards.
Edwards supporters, however, say it's too early to count him out. Maureen Goodyear, of Taylors, S.C., who is white, voted for him in 2004 and plans to vote for him again this year.
"It's a lot longer race than just two states. His message is still strong, and once we get this whoop-de-doo with Obama and Clinton behind us, people will start paying attention to him," she said at the Clemson rally.
Tim Dale, who studies campaigns and elections at the University of South Carolina, also said he doubts Edwards will win.
"We might be looking at Edwards' last stand here in South Carolina. He's going to have a really good showing here to stay in it," Dale said.
But he urged caution in writing Edwards off. "If it's one thing...New Hampshire showed us," the polls and pundits might be wrong, he said, referring to Clinton's unexpected victory.
(What do you think? Comment below.)