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John Edwards went zero for three in the first Democratic presidential primaries, and polls in South Carolina suggest he is unlikely to pull out his first victory in Saturday’s contest.
He may not make it to the White House, but the former North Carolina senator’s decision to continue his campaign is playing an influential role in determining which of his opponents earns the Democratic nomination, political analysts said.
They disagree on whether his presence harms Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama more, but in ways large and small Edwards could end up playing spoiler for one of them.
First the small.
At Monday night’s Democratic debate in Myrtle Beach, Edwards joined Clinton in leveling pointed attacks at Obama. It marked a major reversal from prior debates where he treated the Illinois senator with kid gloves while repeatedly tagging Clinton as a tool of special interests.
Over the last two weeks, Clinton and former President Bill Clinton stepped up their attacks on Obama. Edwards’ decision to join in the barrage gave heft to those attacks, said Tim Dale, a political scientist at the University of South Carolina.
"It really lent them an air of credibility," he said.
The performance led one Obama supporter — Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., D-Ill. — to call for Edwards’ exit.
"What’s the point of his campaign at this point?" he asked. "He’s running way behind, but he gets to hang around the debates and ask pointed questions. It’s time for this to become a thoughtful race between Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton."
Rep. Mel Watt, D-12th, scoffed at the notion that Edwards’ departure would somehow make the race "thoughtful."
Watt pointed out that it took an interruption from Edwards to end a round of highly person attacks between Clinton and Obama.
"This kind of squabbling, how many children is this going to get health care? How many people are going to get an education from this? How many kids are going to be able to go to college because of this?" Edwards asked Clinton and Obama at the debate.
The continued fighting could divide the Democratic party and temper enthusiasm for the nominee heading into the general election, Watt lamented.
"Without him in there, this campaign will just become an all out brawl," Watt said.
On a more immediate issue — the South Carolina primary — Edwards’ impact is unclear.
The pool of likely Democratic voters is split equally between whites and blacks. The most recent poll in the state, taken last week, showed that virtually all of Edwards support came from whites. He barely registers with black voters.
The poll showed that Obama was the choice of three out of four black voters and one out of four whites, while Clinton’s support was stronger among whites than blacks, but split more evenly than either of her opponents.
It’s hard to say what percentage of white voters supporting Edwards would flock to Clinton or Obama. But Todd Shaw, a political scientist at the University of South Carolina who has studied the impact of race in the state’s campaigns, suspects the fracturing of white supporters explains why Obama enjoys a 10 point lead over Clinton, with Edwards running a distant third.
Edwards’ advisers said a victory on Saturday is not a must, but he needs a "strong showing" for his campaign to continue. He has campaigned hard in South Carolina, the state where he was born, and is expected to keep up a breakneck pace through the week on a "Back Roads Back Home Barnstorm Tour."
Yesterday, he picked up the support of a key union in the state, the South Carolina chapter of the Communications Workers of America.
Clinton, to counter, planned to leave the state in the early part of the week to campaign across the country, leaving her husband and daughter behind to spread her message.
If Edwards could somehow take advantage of her absence to make up the 20 points by which he trails her in current polls, it would be a "huge blow" to her campaign heading into the Super Tuesday primaries, said Dave Woodard, a Clemson University political scientist.
Not everyone is convinced that Clinton suffers most from Edwards’ presence. Discounting the impact of race, they say that Obama and Edwards are fighting for the same ideological space on a host of economic justice issues. And both are competing for the same group of voters who simply dislike Clinton.
Exit polls taken in New Hampshire lend support to this theory. They showed that people who had favorable impressions of Edwards were more likely to vote for Obama than Clinton.
The endgame for Edwards is unclear. As questions about his candidacy multiplied last week after his distant third-place finish in Nevada, he blamed the media for ignoring him and promised to campaign all the way to the convention.
Even if he does not win any states, he could pick up enough delegates by finishing third repeatedly. If he picks up enough support, and Obama and Clinton split the other states, he could block both of them from winning the nomination outright.
At that point, some analysts say, he could become a "kingmaker" — urging his delegates to swing the election to Obama or Clinton, perhaps in exchange for the vice presidency on the winning ticket.
Though the number two spot is not his first choice, that road would still get him to the White House.
Sean Mussenden can be reached at 202-662-7668 or smussenden@mediageneral.com.
He may not make it to the White House, but the former North Carolina senator’s decision to continue his campaign is playing an influential role in determining which of his opponents earns the Democratic nomination, political analysts said.
They disagree on whether his presence harms Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama more, but in ways large and small Edwards could end up playing spoiler for one of them.
First the small.
At Monday night’s Democratic debate in Myrtle Beach, Edwards joined Clinton in leveling pointed attacks at Obama. It marked a major reversal from prior debates where he treated the Illinois senator with kid gloves while repeatedly tagging Clinton as a tool of special interests.
Over the last two weeks, Clinton and former President Bill Clinton stepped up their attacks on Obama. Edwards’ decision to join in the barrage gave heft to those attacks, said Tim Dale, a political scientist at the University of South Carolina.
"It really lent them an air of credibility," he said.
The performance led one Obama supporter — Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., D-Ill. — to call for Edwards’ exit.
"What’s the point of his campaign at this point?" he asked. "He’s running way behind, but he gets to hang around the debates and ask pointed questions. It’s time for this to become a thoughtful race between Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton."
Rep. Mel Watt, D-12th, scoffed at the notion that Edwards’ departure would somehow make the race "thoughtful."
Watt pointed out that it took an interruption from Edwards to end a round of highly person attacks between Clinton and Obama.
"This kind of squabbling, how many children is this going to get health care? How many people are going to get an education from this? How many kids are going to be able to go to college because of this?" Edwards asked Clinton and Obama at the debate.
The continued fighting could divide the Democratic party and temper enthusiasm for the nominee heading into the general election, Watt lamented.
"Without him in there, this campaign will just become an all out brawl," Watt said.
On a more immediate issue — the South Carolina primary — Edwards’ impact is unclear.
The pool of likely Democratic voters is split equally between whites and blacks. The most recent poll in the state, taken last week, showed that virtually all of Edwards support came from whites. He barely registers with black voters.
The poll showed that Obama was the choice of three out of four black voters and one out of four whites, while Clinton’s support was stronger among whites than blacks, but split more evenly than either of her opponents.
It’s hard to say what percentage of white voters supporting Edwards would flock to Clinton or Obama. But Todd Shaw, a political scientist at the University of South Carolina who has studied the impact of race in the state’s campaigns, suspects the fracturing of white supporters explains why Obama enjoys a 10 point lead over Clinton, with Edwards running a distant third.
Edwards’ advisers said a victory on Saturday is not a must, but he needs a "strong showing" for his campaign to continue. He has campaigned hard in South Carolina, the state where he was born, and is expected to keep up a breakneck pace through the week on a "Back Roads Back Home Barnstorm Tour."
Yesterday, he picked up the support of a key union in the state, the South Carolina chapter of the Communications Workers of America.
Clinton, to counter, planned to leave the state in the early part of the week to campaign across the country, leaving her husband and daughter behind to spread her message.
If Edwards could somehow take advantage of her absence to make up the 20 points by which he trails her in current polls, it would be a "huge blow" to her campaign heading into the Super Tuesday primaries, said Dave Woodard, a Clemson University political scientist.
Not everyone is convinced that Clinton suffers most from Edwards’ presence. Discounting the impact of race, they say that Obama and Edwards are fighting for the same ideological space on a host of economic justice issues. And both are competing for the same group of voters who simply dislike Clinton.
Exit polls taken in New Hampshire lend support to this theory. They showed that people who had favorable impressions of Edwards were more likely to vote for Obama than Clinton.
The endgame for Edwards is unclear. As questions about his candidacy multiplied last week after his distant third-place finish in Nevada, he blamed the media for ignoring him and promised to campaign all the way to the convention.
Even if he does not win any states, he could pick up enough delegates by finishing third repeatedly. If he picks up enough support, and Obama and Clinton split the other states, he could block both of them from winning the nomination outright.
At that point, some analysts say, he could become a "kingmaker" — urging his delegates to swing the election to Obama or Clinton, perhaps in exchange for the vice presidency on the winning ticket.
Though the number two spot is not his first choice, that road would still get him to the White House.
Sean Mussenden can be reached at 202-662-7668 or smussenden@mediageneral.com.