By Sean Mussenden
Media General News Service
Media General News Service
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COLUMBIA, S.C. - John Edwards may be a native son of South Carolina, but polls show the former North Carolina senator with a better chance of a strong showing in Nevada Saturday than in his birth state next week.
"Intuitively, you think it would be the other way around, because he was born in South Carolina and was senator in a neighboring state," said Andy Taylor, a political scientist at North Carolina State University.
Over the last week, Edwards has largely abandoned South Carolina to campaign in Nevada, which holds Democratic caucuses today.
Recent polls show him running well behind New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in South Carolina, where voters go to the polls on Jan. 26.
But in Nevada, a poll commissioned by the Reno Gazette-Journal earlier this week showed Obama with 32 percent, Clinton with 30 percent and Edwards with 27 percent. That poll had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, putting Edwards within striking distance.
Another poll released Friday showed his support slipping. That poll, commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal,, showed Clinton with 41 percent, Obama with 32 percent and Edwards with 14 percent, with a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
Still, Edwards' prospects appear brighter in Nevada. Political analysts said two key demographic differences between South Carolina and Nevada could explain that.
With a strong populist message aimed at improving living conditions for low and middle-income voters, Edwards has attracted support from union workers in Nevada.
Organized labor has a strong presence in Nevada, where union workers keep the casinos and hotels operating.
Though Obama earned the crucial endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union, which represents 60,000 casino and hotel workers, Edwards "has been working hard to appeal to other service industry workers," said Ferell Guillory, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina, who has closely followed Edwards' campaign.
However, South Carolina is a "right-to-work" state where unions have little sway.
"They're virtually non-existent here. Half of the people who talk about unions in South Carolina throw in the word 'communist' a few sentences later," said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina.
Another difference is that in South Carolina, half of Democratic voters in next week's primary are expected to be African-American. Polls show African-American voters are largely split between Obama and Clinton. Edwards attracts miniscule support from this key voting block, doing better with white male voters.
In Nevada, African-American voters are not as significant a voting block.
This week, Edwards lashed out at the national media, he said, for casting the race as a two person contest between Obama and Clinton.
"If you've been watching the national media for the last year you might have thought there were only two candidates, but if you watched the debate last night you saw there are actually three," he said at a town hall meeting in Reno on Wednesday.
"Only one of these candidates has never taken a dime from Washington lobbyists and PACs. Only one beats every single Republican candidate in head to head match-ups. Only one will have no corporate lobbyists in White House," he said.
Teresa Wells, communications director for Edwards in South Carolina, said it was "foolish to take the polls in South Carolina too seriously."
"A win in Nevada would be nice, but we're not counting on it to do well here," she said.
(Sean Mussenden can be reached at smussenden@mediageneral.com or 202-662-7668).
"Intuitively, you think it would be the other way around, because he was born in South Carolina and was senator in a neighboring state," said Andy Taylor, a political scientist at North Carolina State University.
Over the last week, Edwards has largely abandoned South Carolina to campaign in Nevada, which holds Democratic caucuses today.
Recent polls show him running well behind New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in South Carolina, where voters go to the polls on Jan. 26.
But in Nevada, a poll commissioned by the Reno Gazette-Journal earlier this week showed Obama with 32 percent, Clinton with 30 percent and Edwards with 27 percent. That poll had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points, putting Edwards within striking distance.
Another poll released Friday showed his support slipping. That poll, commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal,, showed Clinton with 41 percent, Obama with 32 percent and Edwards with 14 percent, with a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
Still, Edwards' prospects appear brighter in Nevada. Political analysts said two key demographic differences between South Carolina and Nevada could explain that.
With a strong populist message aimed at improving living conditions for low and middle-income voters, Edwards has attracted support from union workers in Nevada.
Organized labor has a strong presence in Nevada, where union workers keep the casinos and hotels operating.
Though Obama earned the crucial endorsement of the Culinary Workers Union, which represents 60,000 casino and hotel workers, Edwards "has been working hard to appeal to other service industry workers," said Ferell Guillory, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina, who has closely followed Edwards' campaign.
However, South Carolina is a "right-to-work" state where unions have little sway.
"They're virtually non-existent here. Half of the people who talk about unions in South Carolina throw in the word 'communist' a few sentences later," said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina.
Another difference is that in South Carolina, half of Democratic voters in next week's primary are expected to be African-American. Polls show African-American voters are largely split between Obama and Clinton. Edwards attracts miniscule support from this key voting block, doing better with white male voters.
In Nevada, African-American voters are not as significant a voting block.
This week, Edwards lashed out at the national media, he said, for casting the race as a two person contest between Obama and Clinton.
"If you've been watching the national media for the last year you might have thought there were only two candidates, but if you watched the debate last night you saw there are actually three," he said at a town hall meeting in Reno on Wednesday.
"Only one of these candidates has never taken a dime from Washington lobbyists and PACs. Only one beats every single Republican candidate in head to head match-ups. Only one will have no corporate lobbyists in White House," he said.
Teresa Wells, communications director for Edwards in South Carolina, said it was "foolish to take the polls in South Carolina too seriously."
"A win in Nevada would be nice, but we're not counting on it to do well here," she said.
(Sean Mussenden can be reached at smussenden@mediageneral.com or 202-662-7668).