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By Andrew Cain, Richmond Times-Dispatch
Republican Mike Huckabee, propelled by strong evangelical support, is poised for a breakthrough top-tier finish tomorrow in the Iowa caucuses.
But if the former Arkansas governor's candidacy survives the frenzied next 40 days — in which Republicans vote in 32 more states — he might find a far more fractured base in Virginia's Feb. 12 primary.
So far, "no one has risen to the point of being able to capture everyone's heart," said Chris Freund, a spokesman for the Richmond-based Family Foundation.
That was borne out Sunday in brief interviews with two dozen attendees at Faith Landmarks Ministries, a nondenominational evangelical megachurch in Henrico County.
More than half had not settled on a presidential candidate. Among those who stated a preference, four named Huckabee, but others voiced support for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, and even two leading Democrats — New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.
And a Saab in the parking lot bore a bumper sticker touting Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas.
Unlike 2000, when Gov. Jim Gilmore and most evangelical leaders in Virginia backed Texas Gov. George W. Bush, "there is no one favorite candidate this time," said Mark J. Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University.
Rozell detects a division between "the purists who want to back the candidate who's right on the social issues," and the pragmatists, whose top priority is to win and keep Clinton out of the White House.
Huckabee, a Baptist preacher before he entered politics, has the backing of Jerry Falwell Jr., chancellor of Liberty University. But religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, founder of the Christian Coalition, backs former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Meantime, Thompson has the support of Attorney General Bob McDonnell and former Sen. George Allen, as well as the Virginia Society for Human Life, the state's leading anti-abortion group. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling supports Romney.
Don't count out McCain, said the Rev. Richard Cizik of Stafford County, vice president of government affairs for the National Association of Evangelicals.
"There are a lot of conservatives in the Republican ranks in Virginia who are going to take another look" at McCain, especially in light of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto's assassination, Cizik said.
In a Des Moines Register poll of 800 likely GOP caucus goers, published yesterday, Huckabee led with 32 percent of the vote to 26 percent for Romney, 13 percent for McCain, 9 percent each for Thompson and Paul and 5 percent for Giuliani. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The paper reported that almost half of likely GOP caucus voters in the poll call themselves fundamentalist Christians and that among that group Huckabee led Romney 47 percent to 20 percent.
In Virginia, religious conservatives "are just not necessarily excited about any individual candidate," said Freund of The Family Foundation. They also are struck by the number of choices, he said.
"How many times have we had the potential of any one of five contenders" emerging as the Republican nominee, he said.
Virginia is far more diverse than Iowa, another factor in its differing perspectives.
Iowa is 94.9 percent white and 2.3 percent black, according to U.S. census figures. Hispanics, who can be of different races, make up 3.7 percent of its residents.
In Virginia, 73.6 percent of residents are white, 19.9 percent are black, and 6 percent are of Hispanic origin.
The states also take much different approaches to voting for potential nominees. In Iowa's caucuses, far fewer voters take part, which means the most passionate and best-organized supporters can have a big impact on the outcome.
Fewer than 86,000 people voted in Iowa's GOP caucuses in 2000, the last time the party's nomination was contested. By comparison, 661,000 people voted in Virginia's Republican primary that year.
Even if Huckabee wins in Iowa, there is no guarantee he can survive the gantlet until Virginia's primary.
Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia, says Huckabee faces a must-win Jan. 19 in South Carolina — another state with a large evangelical vote — to build his momentum and cash to compete in Florida on Jan. 29 and in multiple states on Feb. 5.
As Iowa voters trudge to their caucuses, Sabato said, this much is uncertain about the fight for the GOP presidential nomination: "There's no front-runner, and there's no clear path to victory."
Andrew Cain is Politics Editor for the Richmond Times-Dispatch.
Republican Mike Huckabee, propelled by strong evangelical support, is poised for a breakthrough top-tier finish tomorrow in the Iowa caucuses.
But if the former Arkansas governor's candidacy survives the frenzied next 40 days — in which Republicans vote in 32 more states — he might find a far more fractured base in Virginia's Feb. 12 primary.
So far, "no one has risen to the point of being able to capture everyone's heart," said Chris Freund, a spokesman for the Richmond-based Family Foundation.
That was borne out Sunday in brief interviews with two dozen attendees at Faith Landmarks Ministries, a nondenominational evangelical megachurch in Henrico County.
More than half had not settled on a presidential candidate. Among those who stated a preference, four named Huckabee, but others voiced support for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, and even two leading Democrats — New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.
And a Saab in the parking lot bore a bumper sticker touting Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas.
Unlike 2000, when Gov. Jim Gilmore and most evangelical leaders in Virginia backed Texas Gov. George W. Bush, "there is no one favorite candidate this time," said Mark J. Rozell, a professor of public policy at George Mason University.
Rozell detects a division between "the purists who want to back the candidate who's right on the social issues," and the pragmatists, whose top priority is to win and keep Clinton out of the White House.
Huckabee, a Baptist preacher before he entered politics, has the backing of Jerry Falwell Jr., chancellor of Liberty University. But religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, founder of the Christian Coalition, backs former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.
Meantime, Thompson has the support of Attorney General Bob McDonnell and former Sen. George Allen, as well as the Virginia Society for Human Life, the state's leading anti-abortion group. Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling supports Romney.
Don't count out McCain, said the Rev. Richard Cizik of Stafford County, vice president of government affairs for the National Association of Evangelicals.
"There are a lot of conservatives in the Republican ranks in Virginia who are going to take another look" at McCain, especially in light of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto's assassination, Cizik said.
In a Des Moines Register poll of 800 likely GOP caucus goers, published yesterday, Huckabee led with 32 percent of the vote to 26 percent for Romney, 13 percent for McCain, 9 percent each for Thompson and Paul and 5 percent for Giuliani. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The paper reported that almost half of likely GOP caucus voters in the poll call themselves fundamentalist Christians and that among that group Huckabee led Romney 47 percent to 20 percent.
In Virginia, religious conservatives "are just not necessarily excited about any individual candidate," said Freund of The Family Foundation. They also are struck by the number of choices, he said.
"How many times have we had the potential of any one of five contenders" emerging as the Republican nominee, he said.
Virginia is far more diverse than Iowa, another factor in its differing perspectives.
Iowa is 94.9 percent white and 2.3 percent black, according to U.S. census figures. Hispanics, who can be of different races, make up 3.7 percent of its residents.
In Virginia, 73.6 percent of residents are white, 19.9 percent are black, and 6 percent are of Hispanic origin.
The states also take much different approaches to voting for potential nominees. In Iowa's caucuses, far fewer voters take part, which means the most passionate and best-organized supporters can have a big impact on the outcome.
Fewer than 86,000 people voted in Iowa's GOP caucuses in 2000, the last time the party's nomination was contested. By comparison, 661,000 people voted in Virginia's Republican primary that year.
Even if Huckabee wins in Iowa, there is no guarantee he can survive the gantlet until Virginia's primary.
Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia, says Huckabee faces a must-win Jan. 19 in South Carolina — another state with a large evangelical vote — to build his momentum and cash to compete in Florida on Jan. 29 and in multiple states on Feb. 5.
As Iowa voters trudge to their caucuses, Sabato said, this much is uncertain about the fight for the GOP presidential nomination: "There's no front-runner, and there's no clear path to victory."
Andrew Cain is Politics Editor for the Richmond Times-Dispatch.