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By SEAN MUSSENDEN and BERTRAND M. GUTIERREZ
Media General News Service
WASHINGTON -- Harold Respass is a young college student. He's also black. Reams of poll data suggest that his affiliation with those two groups means that he's a virtual lock to vote for Barack Obama on Tuesday.
Apparently, someone forgot to tell Respass about his demographic destiny. He's anything but set on voting for Obama, a senator from Illinois.
"I'm undecided right now. I was a big Hillary supporter," said Respass, a junior at Winston-Salem State University. He paused, then said, "Obama is making young people care about the political process."
As the Democratic battle for North Carolina enters its final three days, the core groups of voters backing Obama and Hillary Clinton in North Carolina have mostly solidified, mirroring the same fault lines that determined the outcome of recent contests in other states.
Blacks and young college graduates form the core of Obama's support, while lower- to middle-income workers and older white voters -- women in particular -- have been mostly loyal to Clinton. But that doesn't mean that Clinton's campaign has been willing to give up on voters such as Respass.
The Clinton campaign held an event last week at WSSU as part of a statewide effort to undercut Obama's dominance among blacks and the young. Meanwhile, Obama has been going after Clinton's base with equal fervor.
With few exceptions, the candidates have had difficulty making major inroads into their opponent's bases, a reality highlighted by Repass' potential defection from Clinton to Obama. But neither candidate is giving up.
Both are continuing to woo voters whose income, skin color, gender, age or education suggest that they will probably vote for the other candidate.
"We think we have an appeal across demographic lines," said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager. "We're fighting for support in every part of the state."
Many black voters were initially reluctant to support Obama because of concerns that white voters were not ready to elect a black president. Then he won Iowa, an overwhelmingly white state.
Since then, Obama has enjoyed extremely high levels of support amongst blacks. Polls taken in North Carolina last week showed that he had the support of 80 percent of black voters, compared with just 10 percent for Clinton, with the rest undecided.
He has not lost a state where blacks accounted for more than one-third of Democratic voters. North Carolina is such a state.
Bill Clinton was once beloved in the black community and was frequently referred to as "the first black president." But his persistent attacks on Obama have hurt his reputation and, political analysts say, undercut his wife's support in the community.
Andy Taylor, a political scientist at N.C. State University, said that the overwhelming support enjoyed by Obama appears to have persuaded Clinton's campaign to focus less on black voters and more on shoring up her base of support.
"If you look at where she and her husband have been, it shows that they are working more on white voters," he said.
Still, Clinton has not completely given up on black voters, said Geoff Garin, a Clinton strategist.
"We recognize that there is and has been enormous support for Sen. Obama among African-American voters," he said. "Sen. Clinton has a commitment to try to earn the votes."
If she can cut Obama's black support while increasing turnout of white, older and less affluent Democrats, she might be able to trim the 5- to 10-point advantage Obama holds in the latest statewide surveys.
To help do that, three prominent black supporters of Clinton went on her behalf last week to talk with WSSU students.
One of those supporters, Erika Alexander, an actress who appeared on The Cosby Show more than 20 years ago, pleaded with the crowd to ignore the historical significance of the candidates' race and gender, and focus instead on their service.
"Her whole life has been dedicated to social change," Alexander told the students.
Even on majority-white college campuses in the state, Clinton has had difficulty cutting into Obama's support among young people. The latest statewide polls show that voters under 35 favor Obama over Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin.
Still, the Clinton campaign says it has not given up on the dormitory vote. The campaign has dispatched Chelsea Clinton to several universities in the state, including a visit to Salem College on Friday.
At Appalachian State University, political-science professor Phillip Ardoin said that though Obama supporters have led early-voting drives and covered the sidewalks with chalked pro-Obama messages, enthusiasm for Clinton on campus has been practically invisible.
"When Bill Clinton spoke here, most of the students in line had Obama signs," he said.
Meanwhile, the Obama campaign has had similar difficulty courting older white women who tend to favor Clinton. But the campaign has tried.
Last week, the campaign circulated a list of 400 women in the state, mostly local and state elected officials, who were backing Obama. The list included several older white women such as Linda Blackburn, 63, the mayor of Ahoskie.
"I realize I'm probably in the minority for my age," she said. "But I truly believe he has the best chance of healing this country."
Blackburn and other older, politically active female Obama supporters have lobbied their friends and strangers of a similar demographic profile to give Obama another look. Blackburn has had a few converts, she said, but not many.
As part of Obama's targeted message to women, the campaign has also had his wife, Michelle Obama, travel the state.
Obama's campaign has also aggressively lobbied lower- and middle-income white workers in rural parts of the state, including cities such as Hickory that have been devastated by manufacturing plant shutdowns.
Support from blue-collar workers played a big role in Clinton's win in Pennsylvania. Obama has taken pains in North Carolina to speak directly to blue-collar audiences, criticizing trade deals that led to plant shutdowns.
At a rally in Hickory last week, Obama's campaign arranged for the candidate to be introduced by a laid-off textile worker, a white man. And in Winston-Salem last week, Obama told an audience of worried supporters that he could win over white working-class voters by primary day.
He pointed to his campaign for the Senate in 2004. Everyone said that he could not win over white, working-class voters in southern Illinois, he said.
"We went down there and got those votes because everybody is looking for the same thing," he said.
His efforts to do that again in North Carolina and elsewhere this year have been complicated by his statement at a closed-door fundraiser last month that some rural blue-collar voters have made religion and gun rights the focus of their politics because they were "bitter" over their financial fortunes.
The re-emergence last week of his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, as the dominant campaign story helped Clinton increase her support of white voters in the state, Taylor said.
"The polls are showing that if there is some movement here, it is in her favor," Taylor said. "I think everyone is attributing it to the Wright thing. If that is the case, then maybe it is that white voters are being alienated."
Not all, though. Dave Stowell, 68, a white, retired U.S. Marine, showed up to see Obama in Hickory.
"I guess you could say I'm kind of unfamiliar for this rally, but this fellow needs a chance," he said.
At the beginning of April, polls showed Obama with consistent double-digit leads over Clinton, in large part because he had begun to erode Clinton's hold on white voters, said Dean Debnam, the president of Public Policy Polling, who has conducted several polls on the North Carolina race.
But his lead has decreased to 5 to 10 points within the past two weeks, as white voters have turned back to Clinton, Debnam said.
"Rev. Wright is her best campaign tool. She doesn't have to say a thing; he just has to keep talking," he said.
Sean Mussenden can be reached at 202 662-7668 or at smussenden@mediageneral.com. Bertrand M. Gutierrez can be reached at 336-727-7283 or at bgutierrez@wsjournal.com.
Media General News Service
WASHINGTON -- Harold Respass is a young college student. He's also black. Reams of poll data suggest that his affiliation with those two groups means that he's a virtual lock to vote for Barack Obama on Tuesday.
Apparently, someone forgot to tell Respass about his demographic destiny. He's anything but set on voting for Obama, a senator from Illinois.
"I'm undecided right now. I was a big Hillary supporter," said Respass, a junior at Winston-Salem State University. He paused, then said, "Obama is making young people care about the political process."
As the Democratic battle for North Carolina enters its final three days, the core groups of voters backing Obama and Hillary Clinton in North Carolina have mostly solidified, mirroring the same fault lines that determined the outcome of recent contests in other states.
Blacks and young college graduates form the core of Obama's support, while lower- to middle-income workers and older white voters -- women in particular -- have been mostly loyal to Clinton. But that doesn't mean that Clinton's campaign has been willing to give up on voters such as Respass.
The Clinton campaign held an event last week at WSSU as part of a statewide effort to undercut Obama's dominance among blacks and the young. Meanwhile, Obama has been going after Clinton's base with equal fervor.
With few exceptions, the candidates have had difficulty making major inroads into their opponent's bases, a reality highlighted by Repass' potential defection from Clinton to Obama. But neither candidate is giving up.
Both are continuing to woo voters whose income, skin color, gender, age or education suggest that they will probably vote for the other candidate.
"We think we have an appeal across demographic lines," said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager. "We're fighting for support in every part of the state."
Many black voters were initially reluctant to support Obama because of concerns that white voters were not ready to elect a black president. Then he won Iowa, an overwhelmingly white state.
Since then, Obama has enjoyed extremely high levels of support amongst blacks. Polls taken in North Carolina last week showed that he had the support of 80 percent of black voters, compared with just 10 percent for Clinton, with the rest undecided.
He has not lost a state where blacks accounted for more than one-third of Democratic voters. North Carolina is such a state.
Bill Clinton was once beloved in the black community and was frequently referred to as "the first black president." But his persistent attacks on Obama have hurt his reputation and, political analysts say, undercut his wife's support in the community.
Andy Taylor, a political scientist at N.C. State University, said that the overwhelming support enjoyed by Obama appears to have persuaded Clinton's campaign to focus less on black voters and more on shoring up her base of support.
"If you look at where she and her husband have been, it shows that they are working more on white voters," he said.
Still, Clinton has not completely given up on black voters, said Geoff Garin, a Clinton strategist.
"We recognize that there is and has been enormous support for Sen. Obama among African-American voters," he said. "Sen. Clinton has a commitment to try to earn the votes."
If she can cut Obama's black support while increasing turnout of white, older and less affluent Democrats, she might be able to trim the 5- to 10-point advantage Obama holds in the latest statewide surveys.
To help do that, three prominent black supporters of Clinton went on her behalf last week to talk with WSSU students.
One of those supporters, Erika Alexander, an actress who appeared on The Cosby Show more than 20 years ago, pleaded with the crowd to ignore the historical significance of the candidates' race and gender, and focus instead on their service.
"Her whole life has been dedicated to social change," Alexander told the students.
Even on majority-white college campuses in the state, Clinton has had difficulty cutting into Obama's support among young people. The latest statewide polls show that voters under 35 favor Obama over Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin.
Still, the Clinton campaign says it has not given up on the dormitory vote. The campaign has dispatched Chelsea Clinton to several universities in the state, including a visit to Salem College on Friday.
At Appalachian State University, political-science professor Phillip Ardoin said that though Obama supporters have led early-voting drives and covered the sidewalks with chalked pro-Obama messages, enthusiasm for Clinton on campus has been practically invisible.
"When Bill Clinton spoke here, most of the students in line had Obama signs," he said.
Meanwhile, the Obama campaign has had similar difficulty courting older white women who tend to favor Clinton. But the campaign has tried.
Last week, the campaign circulated a list of 400 women in the state, mostly local and state elected officials, who were backing Obama. The list included several older white women such as Linda Blackburn, 63, the mayor of Ahoskie.
"I realize I'm probably in the minority for my age," she said. "But I truly believe he has the best chance of healing this country."
Blackburn and other older, politically active female Obama supporters have lobbied their friends and strangers of a similar demographic profile to give Obama another look. Blackburn has had a few converts, she said, but not many.
As part of Obama's targeted message to women, the campaign has also had his wife, Michelle Obama, travel the state.
Obama's campaign has also aggressively lobbied lower- and middle-income white workers in rural parts of the state, including cities such as Hickory that have been devastated by manufacturing plant shutdowns.
Support from blue-collar workers played a big role in Clinton's win in Pennsylvania. Obama has taken pains in North Carolina to speak directly to blue-collar audiences, criticizing trade deals that led to plant shutdowns.
At a rally in Hickory last week, Obama's campaign arranged for the candidate to be introduced by a laid-off textile worker, a white man. And in Winston-Salem last week, Obama told an audience of worried supporters that he could win over white working-class voters by primary day.
He pointed to his campaign for the Senate in 2004. Everyone said that he could not win over white, working-class voters in southern Illinois, he said.
"We went down there and got those votes because everybody is looking for the same thing," he said.
His efforts to do that again in North Carolina and elsewhere this year have been complicated by his statement at a closed-door fundraiser last month that some rural blue-collar voters have made religion and gun rights the focus of their politics because they were "bitter" over their financial fortunes.
The re-emergence last week of his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, as the dominant campaign story helped Clinton increase her support of white voters in the state, Taylor said.
"The polls are showing that if there is some movement here, it is in her favor," Taylor said. "I think everyone is attributing it to the Wright thing. If that is the case, then maybe it is that white voters are being alienated."
Not all, though. Dave Stowell, 68, a white, retired U.S. Marine, showed up to see Obama in Hickory.
"I guess you could say I'm kind of unfamiliar for this rally, but this fellow needs a chance," he said.
At the beginning of April, polls showed Obama with consistent double-digit leads over Clinton, in large part because he had begun to erode Clinton's hold on white voters, said Dean Debnam, the president of Public Policy Polling, who has conducted several polls on the North Carolina race.
But his lead has decreased to 5 to 10 points within the past two weeks, as white voters have turned back to Clinton, Debnam said.
"Rev. Wright is her best campaign tool. She doesn't have to say a thing; he just has to keep talking," he said.
Sean Mussenden can be reached at 202 662-7668 or at smussenden@mediageneral.com. Bertrand M. Gutierrez can be reached at 336-727-7283 or at bgutierrez@wsjournal.com.