Martinez’ 2010 Senate Race Already Rated a Toss-up

Thu, November 13, 2008 - 3:23 PM

U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., isn’t saying until January, at least officially, whether he’ll run for a second term in two years. And he does not yet have a declared Democratic foe.

But today, the non-partisan Cook Political Report, in its opening round of predictions for the 2010 Senate races, puts the race for Martinez’ seat in its “toss-up” category.

Only two other Senate races in 2010 – the contests for Kentucky Republican Jim Bunning’s seat and Louisiana Republican David Vitter’s – are similarly rated as “toss-ups.”

There will be a total of 34 total Senate races in 2010, 19 currently held by Republicans, 15 by Democrats. The number of races could grow if Barack Obama appoints some sitting senators to his administration.

“Here’s my reasoning,” said Cook analyst, Jennifer Duffy, of why Martinez may be in jeopardy if he runs for another six-year term.

“Barack Obama proved what Democrats in Florida have been saying for two to four years,” said Duffy, “that the I-4 corridor makes all the difference in the world, and that that swing area can move to Democrats, as it did for Obama.”

“His other problems are that he is not especially well-defined for voters. And, because he was a good sport and agreed to serve as the chairman of the Republican National Committee, he’s neglected his fundraising somewhat,” she said.

Martinez has reported having less than $1.3 million on hand in his campaign war chest.

“Florida is a very big, very expensive swing state now, and this is going to be a $25 million-plus race,” Duffy said.

Responded Martinez spokesman Ken Lundberg to the Cook analysis: “It’s no great surprise. Florida is always going to be toss-up state."

-- Billy House, Media General News Service