SC Primary Post Game Analysis

Sat, January 19, 2008 - 11:17 PM

Some quick post-game analysis here:

With the win, John McCain heads into Florida next week as the only GOP candidate to have won more than one seriously contested state. (Yes, Mitt Romney has now finished first in three states, but only Michigan was a real test of strength. He did win the Wyoming and Nevada caucuses, but he was the only candidate to go after those states).

McCain’s victories have come in two very different states that represent two very different cross sections of the Republican party.

He won in New Hampshire, a moderate state, and in South Carolina, a conservative state, proving he can win in the South heading into Super Tuesday. He could not pick up the second piece in 2000, and it killed his campaign. Florida has elements of both Northeastern moderates and Southern conservatives, which suggests that McCain could well pull off another win there.

Both of McCain’s victories came in states where independents could vote in the GOP primary – so-called “open primary” states. He got significant support from independents in both of his victories, exit polls showed. In South Carolina for example, he pulled in 42 percent of independents, compared with 25 percent from Huckabee. Without that support, it might have been Huckabee giving the victory speech tonight.

Does that matter heading into Super Tuesday? A quick check of the open or closed status of primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday reveals a McCain advantage.

In most Southern states – Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia (sort of), and Tennessee – the primaries are open. That means Huckabee (and, perhaps, Fred Thompson in Tennessee if he remains in the race) will once again have to overcome independents siding with McCain to win. He should be able to do that in Arkansas, where he was governor, but he’ll face a battle with Thompson for Tennessee. In New England and California, the primaries are closed, but those aren’t exactly Huckabee territory.

And, of course, Romney or Rudy Giuliani could win Florida and derail the McCain train.

What about Huckabee? Huckabee’s path to victory in this race has always been through the South. His failure to win South Carolina tonight makes that path a bit rockier.

That’s my two cents. I’d love to hear your thoughts.

--Sean Mussenden