Sabato: Trends Breaking Obama’s Way

Thu, October 09, 2008 - 11:04 AM

For the first time this presidential election, political analyst Larry Sabato is projecting that Democrat Barack Obama has enough states now solidly in his column, likely to be in his column, or leaning his way, to provide more more-than-enough electoral votes for victory.

“Based on current polling and other state trends, including information gathered during our personal visits to some toss-up states, we reckon that Obama now has 190 solid, 49 likely, and 39 leaning electoral votes, for a total of 278, or 8 more than needed for election. Republican John McCain now has 143 solid, 20 likely, and 11 leaning electoral votes,” writes Sabato in his latest report, released this morning.

Here's what Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, says has changed in recent weeks:

Obama now has the edge in Colorado (9 electoral votes), Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (5). In addition, he says Iowa has firmed up to be solidly Obama's, and New Mexico is now likely Obama's rather than just leaning.

In addition, three states Sabato previously listed as leaning McCain are now viewed as pure toss-ups: Florida (27), Missouri (11), and North Carolina (15).

“The loss of Florida would be absolutely fatal to McCain's chances. Practically speaking, McCain's defeat in any of the three states would probably guarantee the Republican's loss,” writes Sabato.

“Nothing is necessarily permanent in a fluid presidential campaign,” cautions Sabato.

“We'll watch all four Obama 'leaning' states carefully, and especially New Hampshire, which is quirky and has rescued McCain twice (in both the 2000 and 2008 presidential primaries), he writes. "In addition, we'll keep a close eye on Pennsylvania where Democratic ground reports continue to suggest there is racial resistance to Obama in blue collar areas and where McCain operatives are determined to pull an upset.”

-- Billy House, Media General News Service