Q-Poll Has Obama and McCain In Statistical Ties in 2 “Swing” States.

Thu, July 31, 2008 - 10:17 AM

WASHINGTON – A new poll of like voters in Florida shows the presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain in a dead heat, but that Republican McCain has slightly gained on Obama since June.

The same poll released this morning by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute shows that voters in Florida, by a 60 percent to 33 percent margin, support President Bush’s call for more off-shore drilling and want Congress to go along—which McCain also has urged.

At the same tine, the1,248 likely Florida voters surveyed from July 23 to July 29 viewed Democrat Obama as having the better overall energy policy, favoring his over McCain’s 34 percent to 32 percent. The poll said 34 percent of those surveyed were undecided.

The poll listed a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent for the Florida findings; they were released with the institute’s findings in two other so-called presidential “swing-states,” Ohio and Pennsylvania.

In Florida, Obama is shown as still ahead of McCain, but they are in a statistical tie, 46 percent to 44 percent. That compares to a 47 percent to 43 percent lead he held in the state in the Quinnipiac's June 18 poll.

Obama also leads in Ohio 46 percent to 44 percent, compared to his lead of 48 percent to 42 percent there in the Quinnipiac's June 18 poll.

The Illinois senator leads in Pennsylvania 49 percent to 42 percent, compared to his 52 percent to 40 percent lead in June.

Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown called McCain's 1 percentage-point gain in Florida; and his 2 percentage-point gains in Ohio and Pennsylvania -- although they are all within the poll's margin of error -- a “surge.”

“The $64,000 question is whether Sen. John McCain’s surge is a result of Sen. Obama’s much publicized Middle Eastern and European trip, or just a coincidence that it occurred while Obama was abroad,” said Brown.

-- Billy House