McCain, Romney in Fla. Dead Heat, New Polls Show

Mon, January 28, 2008 - 10:09 AM

With the Florida Republican primary just one day away, two new polls of likely voters show John McCain and Mitt Romney running neck-and-neck for the lead.

One of the polls also shows Hillary Clinton maintaining her commanding lead in the Democratic race.

A Quinnipiac University Polling Institute survey of likely voters in Tuesday's primary shows McCain at 32 percent, Romney 31, Rudolph Giuliani 14, Huckabee 13 and Ron Paul 3.

Another poll done Political Research Center at Boston’s Suffolk University shows McCain at 30 percent, Romney at 27, Giuliani 13, Huckabee 11, and Ron Paul 4.

The Quinnipiac poll was taken Thursday through Sunday and has a 4.1 percent point margin of error for Republicans, meaning McCain and Romney are in a statistical tie for the lead.

The Suffolk University poll was conducted from Friday to Sunday and has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points, also putting McCain and Romney in a statistical tie.

“Sen. McCain and Gov. Romney are tight as a tick, although McCain’s supporters appear slightly more committed. With 24 hours to go, the race is up in the air. Whichever candidate finishes strongest will win Florida and all 57 of its reduced delegate count,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac polling insititute

Brown added that the major unknown factor in the final hours before primary day in determining the GOP winner is how much weight the endorsements by Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez of McCain carry with Florida Republicans.

“The race is very fluid and John McCain just keeps on going. His is fighting businessman Mitt Romney’s attempt to secure Florida as yet another electoral acquisition,” said David Paleologos, Director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. He also said the McCain’s endorsements by Martinez and Crist may play a role in who wins.

In the Suffolk poll, McCain and Romney ran virtually dead even in all parts of the state except in the Southern part of the state (McCain 37 percent and Romney 25 percent) home to a large Hispanic population where women drove McCain’s margin.

The Quinnipiac poll also had Hillary Clinton maintaining her large lead in the state over Barack Obama and John Edwards. The Dem numbers are Clinton at 50 percent, Obama 30, John Edwards 12, others 1 and undecided 7.

“Even with Sen. Obama’s landslide win in South Carolina, he still trails Sen. Clinton by 20 points and a comeback of that magnitude in the final hours would be virtually unprecedented in recent political history,” said Brown.

“Moreover, the demographics of the Florida Democratic electorate are not nearly as favorable to Obama as was the case in South Carolina, where more than half the voters were African-American," he said.

On the Democratic side, there are no delegates at stake at this point and Obama has emphasized it has no “role” in the primary.

-- Billy House