Four Things to Watch For in Tonight’s GOP Debate

Thu, January 10, 2008 - 8:41 PM

We’re a few minutes from the debate, and I just finished my list of key things to watch for tonight.

Here’s my take. In the comments section below, let me know what you’re watching for.

How Negative Will It Get? – The next primary up is Michigan’s, and though Mitt Romney is behind right now in South Carolina, he and McCain are fighting a pitched battle in that state. I expect Romney will go hard after McCain on taxes – his opposition to some parts of Bush’s tax cuts – and his less-than-hard line stance on illegal immigration.

The wild card, perhaps, is Huckabee. A win in South Carolina is extremely important to his candidacy, and though polls earlier this week showed him with a strong lead over McCain, a new poll out this morning showed McCain with a slight lead. Huckabee has mostly avoided going strongly negative against his fellow candidates, preferring subtler digs. For example, Huckabee says in one radio ad that voters should think of him as the guy they work with, not the one who laid them off (read: Romney, who made a fortune in private industry). Will he go a bit harder after McCain tonight?

The War – with a large population of veterans and military families in South Carolina, I expect the war in Iraq (and to a lesser degree, Afghanistan) to be a strong debate point tonight. McCain, a decorated war hero, and early proponent of putting more troops into Iraq to temper the violence – the surge – enjoys a great deal of support from this key voting block. He and Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., co-wrote an editorial in the Wall Street Journal today praising the surge, a year after it started.

Other candidates, Mike Huckabee for example, have had a more difficult time convincing voters that they have been consistent supporters of that military strategy in Iraq.

Illegal Immigration – It’s a huge issue here in South Carolina. Of all the candidates, McCain has taken the most lumps for his support of a much less hard-line plan than his fellow Republican candidates. It’s a vulnerability for him here, and other candidates will assuredly attack him on it.

Fred Thompson – The former Tennessee senator has said he’s “making a stand” in South Carolina, and the conventional wisdom has it as a last stand unless he has a strong showing on primary day.

He left New Hampshire early to campaign in South Carolina, but his message here has been drowned out by John McCain and Mike Huckabee. This week, you were probably more likely to catch Fred Thompson on “Law & Order” reruns than on local TV news in South Carolina.

He’s running way behind in the polls here, so a strong showing tonight is a must.

--Sean Mussenden