Breaking Down the South Carolina Exit Polls

Sat, January 19, 2008 - 11:45 PM

In case you don’t feel like wading through all the South Carolina exit polls, I’ll give you the Cliffs Notes version.


McCain won old people, Huckabee the young. (The Chuck Norris effect?)

McCain won pro-choice voters, Huckabee pro-life. (McCain is pro-life, but his stance on abortion is far less a part of his political identity than Huckabee).

Huckabee won the vote of people who go to church more than once a week. McCain won everyone else. (It’s no surprise that Huckabee got the votes of the hard-core evangelicals. But it looks like his effort to branch out to more secular voters was not as successful as he’d hoped. McCain even won amongst voters who go to church once a week).

McCain got the anti-Bush crowd, Huckabee the pro-Bush forces.

McCain got college grads, Huckabee got everyone else.

McCain won the Low Country and the Midlands, Huckabee the Pee Dee and the Piedmont.

McCain got the support of people who said they were getting ahead financially and people who said they were falling behind financially, Huckabee got the people who said they weren’t moving up or down. (In attempting to reach beyond religious voters, Huckabee spent a lot of time throwing a populist economic message at working class voters who had been hurt by the economic downturn. This suggests that effort did not go over that well).

Huckabee got people who make less than $30,000 per year, McCain got everyone else.

McCain won with people who said “personal qualities” were more important. Huckabee won with people who said issues matter more. (This might explain why McCain was able to overcome a less-than-hardline immigration stance that was unpopular with many conservatives here. Huckabee won anti-immigration voters).

McCain won independents, Huckabee won Republicans. (This was the key to McCain’s victory).

McCain won Catholics, Huckabee won Protestants. (Protestants accounted for four-fifths of voters in this primary, meaning McCain’s support amongst Catholics did not provide a huge boost).

McCain won cities and suburbs, Huckabee won rural areas.

And, lastly, McCain won the deficit hawks, Huckabee won the anti-tax crowd.

--Sean Mussenden