Mon, January 21, 2008 - 3:26 PM

The Jefferson-Jackson Dinner will be a hot ticket for Democrats in Georgia.

The state’s Democratic Party just confirmed John Edwards will attend the Jan. 30 dinner. Hillary Clinton is already committed to attending the $250-a-plate annual dinner as well.

The event, at the Georgia World Congress Center in Atlanta, is less than a week before Georgia’s primary on Feb. 5.

Can Barack Obama be far behind?

--Amy Dominello

Democratic Rep. Rick Boucher announced his endorsement of Barack Obama today, saying the senator from Illinois has the broadest appeal in the race for the presidency.

Boucher, D-9th, said Obama inspires hope in a way that can attract independents and Republicans like no other Democrat.

“I represent a rural district of 27 counties and cities in southwestern Virginia. George Bush received 60 percent of the vote in my district in 2004,” Boucher said in a statement. “I believe Senator Obama can carry it in 2008, and no other Democratic candidate can.”

--Neil Simon

Former President Bill Clinton “needs to chill a little bit," Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C. says.

Clyburn, who has not endorsed in the Democratic presidential contest, said in a CNN interview this morning that Bill Clinton should dial back his involvement in the primary battle.

Clyburn’s statement came after Barack Obama, speaking on ABC, said Bill Clinton has “taken his advocacy on behalf of his wife to a level that I think is pretty troubling.”

Bill Clinton had labeled Obama’s claim to have opposed the Iraq war from the start a “fairy tale” and added on other attacks since Iowa’s caucuses that have made the former president emerge as the attack dog for his wife’s campaign.

Clyburn, the house majority whip, and the leading voice of African-American democrats in South Carolina, said “[Bill Clinton] is revered in the African-American community. He can afford to tone it down.”

Without making a solid prediction for which candidate his state’s Democrats would support on Saturday, Clyburn called South Carolina’s black voters “more mature” than other states and offered this analysis: “Older African-Americans will reluctantly decide based on the record. The younger voters will break toward Obama.”

The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls shows Obama leading Hillary Clinton 43 percent to 32 percent, with 14 percent of likely voters favoring John Edwards.

--Neil H. Simon

We're liveblogging via Blackberry from the Martin Luther King day rally at the statehouse in Columbia, S.C.

All three candidates were supposed to be here this morning, but the event has started and only former Sen. John Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama are here. No sign of Sen. Hillary Clinton. It's freezing here, so maybe she's inside keeping warm.

Edwards and Obama are smiling, looking very friendly, standing close together. Could this be a preview of the general election if Obama (or less likely, Edwards) wins? Perhaps we're getting ahead of ourselves.

Before the rally, there was a march here from Zion Baptist Church a few blocks away. Only Obama marched, and it was chaos. For some reason, there is intense media interest in an African-American candidate marching on MLK day. Who knew? (Sarcasm alert).

Secret service agents, cops with bullhorns, and march organizers shouted at, jostled and generally pushed past reporters struggling to get close to Obama. I saw one cameraman from a Japanese TV station fall down and get trampled.

Anyway, Edwards, Obama and Clinton (if she gets here) are scheduled to speak soon. This is obviously an important day for African-American voters in the state (and whites, too). They are expected to account for half of all voters on Saturday, so every candidate here is looking for their votes.

Oh, and there's Clinton now.

More soon.

--Sean Mussenden

Nevada holds another lesson for us today when it comes to the politics of ethnicity.

Heading into caucuses there, Barack Obama held a prized endorsement of the heavily Latino casino workers union. But Hispanics strongly broke for Clinton on Saturday, according to CNN entrance polls.

Why? Hispanic voting expert Adam J. Segal points to confusion among the rank and file union members.

Segal, who runs the Hispanic Voter Project and The 2050 Group, a public relations firm with an ethnic marketing focus, was at the MGM Grand Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas in the final days before the caucus. Talking to one of the head groundskeepers, a Mexican-American with dual citizenship, Segal learned that many of the workers had been given cues weeks ago that the union would endorse Clinton.

Then, after Obama won Iowa, Segal says, the union leaders seemed to do a 180 to endorse Obama. Due to the earlier hints of a Clinton endorsement, Segal says the official endorsement could have seemed soft or backfired, as it may have looked like the union simply jumped on a frontrunner-of-the-moment bandwagon.

But there is another reason that Hispanic voters, who will play major roles in Florida and California in the coming weeks, went to Clinton by more than 60 percent.

Simply put, it is relationships. No matter how many people may vote for a candidate who looks like them or a candidate their union endorsed, it is hard to trump true-blue friendships that go beyond political IOUs.

After her Nevada victory, Clinton’s strength with big name Hispanics was front and center in Las Vegas’ Spanish-language newspaper, El Tiempo. There she was with her husband’s former housing secretary Henry Cisneros and her not so new friend, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, among other notable Hispanic leaders.

Viallaraigosa told the New Yorker magazine in early 2007, “I’m very much a relationship person. What kind of people they are is important to me. I make a lot of decisions from the heart. If you want to be president of the United States, you have to appeal to the heart.” The same profile mentioned the LA mayor was surprised by how much Clinton knew about him during their first encounter.

Now among blacks, it’s a different story. Obama won 83 percent of the black vote in Nevada, according to CNN entrance polls. And African-Americans will very much decide who wins the Democrats next contest in South Carolina.

--Neil H. Simon

Sun, January 20, 2008 - 12:27 PM

So, those polls that showed John Edwards poised for a strong showing in Nevada? Whoops.

Edwards was trounced in Nevada, failing to pick up significant support from union members that largely split between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Earlier in the week, polls there showed Edwards locked into a tight, three-way race with the two front-runners.

He ended up with four percent. It appears that a quirk of the Nevada democratic caucus rules ended up making his showing there appear worse. In entrance polls – interviews with voters as they headed into caucus sites – about nine percent of voters said they would vote for Edwards.

After the first round of voting at the caucus sites, Nevada Democratic Party “viability” rules say that if a candidate did not get a certain amount of votes – the threshold varies – then that candidate’s supporters must abandon their candidate and join groups supporting another group – in this case, Clinton or Obama.

Still, even nine percent is worse than polls heading into Nevada predicted Edwards would do. Unless he pulls of a big upset in South Carolina on Saturday, it’s likely he will face more questions about his continuation in the race.

--Sean Mussenden

Sat, January 19, 2008 - 11:45 PM

In case you don’t feel like wading through all the South Carolina exit polls, I’ll give you the Cliffs Notes version.


McCain won old people, Huckabee the young. (The Chuck Norris effect?)

McCain won pro-choice voters, Huckabee pro-life. (McCain is pro-life, but his stance on abortion is far less a part of his political identity than Huckabee).

Huckabee won the vote of people who go to church more than once a week. McCain won everyone else. (It’s no surprise that Huckabee got the votes of the hard-core evangelicals. But it looks like his effort to branch out to more secular voters was not as successful as he’d hoped. McCain even won amongst voters who go to church once a week).

McCain got the anti-Bush crowd, Huckabee the pro-Bush forces.

McCain got college grads, Huckabee got everyone else.

McCain won the Low Country and the Midlands, Huckabee the Pee Dee and the Piedmont.

McCain got the support of people who said they were getting ahead financially and people who said they were falling behind financially, Huckabee got the people who said they weren’t moving up or down. (In attempting to reach beyond religious voters, Huckabee spent a lot of time throwing a populist economic message at working class voters who had been hurt by the economic downturn. This suggests that effort did not go over that well).

Huckabee got people who make less than $30,000 per year, McCain got everyone else.

McCain won with people who said “personal qualities” were more important. Huckabee won with people who said issues matter more. (This might explain why McCain was able to overcome a less-than-hardline immigration stance that was unpopular with many conservatives here. Huckabee won anti-immigration voters).

McCain won independents, Huckabee won Republicans. (This was the key to McCain’s victory).

McCain won Catholics, Huckabee won Protestants. (Protestants accounted for four-fifths of voters in this primary, meaning McCain’s support amongst Catholics did not provide a huge boost).

McCain won cities and suburbs, Huckabee won rural areas.

And, lastly, McCain won the deficit hawks, Huckabee won the anti-tax crowd.

--Sean Mussenden

Some quick post-game analysis here:

With the win, John McCain heads into Florida next week as the only GOP candidate to have won more than one seriously contested state. (Yes, Mitt Romney has now finished first in three states, but only Michigan was a real test of strength. He did win the Wyoming and Nevada caucuses, but he was the only candidate to go after those states).

McCain’s victories have come in two very different states that represent two very different cross sections of the Republican party.

He won in New Hampshire, a moderate state, and in South Carolina, a conservative state, proving he can win in the South heading into Super Tuesday. He could not pick up the second piece in 2000, and it killed his campaign. Florida has elements of both Northeastern moderates and Southern conservatives, which suggests that McCain could well pull off another win there.

Both of McCain’s victories came in states where independents could vote in the GOP primary – so-called “open primary” states. He got significant support from independents in both of his victories, exit polls showed. In South Carolina for example, he pulled in 42 percent of independents, compared with 25 percent from Huckabee. Without that support, it might have been Huckabee giving the victory speech tonight.

Does that matter heading into Super Tuesday? A quick check of the open or closed status of primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday reveals a McCain advantage.

In most Southern states – Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia (sort of), and Tennessee – the primaries are open. That means Huckabee (and, perhaps, Fred Thompson in Tennessee if he remains in the race) will once again have to overcome independents siding with McCain to win. He should be able to do that in Arkansas, where he was governor, but he’ll face a battle with Thompson for Tennessee. In New England and California, the primaries are closed, but those aren’t exactly Huckabee territory.

And, of course, Romney or Rudy Giuliani could win Florida and derail the McCain train.

What about Huckabee? Huckabee’s path to victory in this race has always been through the South. His failure to win South Carolina tonight makes that path a bit rockier.

That’s my two cents. I’d love to hear your thoughts.

--Sean Mussenden

Mike Huckabee just took the stage to concede to Sen. John McCain, after the AP, NBC, CNN and pretty much everyone else called the race for the Arizona senator.

Huckabee said he called McCain moments ago to concede, and thanked him for running a "a civil, good, decent campaign." A veiled dig at Mitt Romney, methinks.

As you'd expect, Huckabee said tonight's second place finish is not the end for his campaign, as the GOP field moves onto Florida and Super Tuesday. "This is not an event. It's a process. And the process is far from over," he said to big cheers from the crowd here.

--Sean Mussenden

The crowd here at Huck HQ is a bit downcast, as McCain still has a four percent lead with 75 percent of precincts reporting. Huckabee was catching up for a while, but in the last twenty minutes, the lead has spread a bit for McCain.

If this thing tightens to within a few hundred votes at the end, expect to hear A LOT about voting machine problems in Horry County today. That's Myrtle Beach -- McCain country -- and his advisers are worried that voting problems there could hold him back.

State election officials say that the machine problems were not that big an issue, because voters could fill out paper ballots if the electronic ones weren't working. And if they didn't have enough paper ballots on hand?

The State newspaper quoted Election Commission spokesman Chris Whitmire saying that "voters could use almost anything - "a napkin, a paper towel" - on which they could write the name of a candidate and put it in a ballot box." Apparently this is allowable under South Carolina law. Seriously.

If I lived in South Carolina, I would vote exclusively on used beer coasters. What about you?

--Sean Mussenden

With about half of precincts reporting, John McCain has a three point lead over Mike Huckabee, but Huckabee is gaining as more results roll in. And they're feeling confident here.

A Huckabee advisor -- smiling broadly -- just stopped me to point out that Greenville results have not come in yet. That's expected to be strong Huckabee territory -- very strong base of evangelical conservatives there -- so they expect a big bump from that.

We'll see...

--Sean Mussenden

We could be in for a long night, folks. The networks are reporting that their exit polls show a slight lead for John McCain, too slight to call. Looks like we'll have to count the actual votes. Such a novel concept.

At Huckabee HQ, Former South Carolina Gov. David Beasley, one of Huckabee's top point men in the state, just came out to calm down the crowd, telling them not to get nervous, and predicting a win for Huckabee after all the votes are counted.

"Hang tight, we just might be here a while."

--Sena Mussenden

COLUMBIA, S.C. – Polls are closing in a few minutes in South Carolina, ending a cold, snowy and generally unseasonably miserable day of voting here in the GOP primary.

I’m live blogging the returns tonight from Gov. Mike Huckabee’s election night party in Columbia, S.C. A few minutes ago, I ran into Mike Campbell, whose dad Carroll Campbell was governor here from the late 1980s to the mid-1990s. Campbell has been around South Carolina politics all his life, and he told me he could not remember a time when it snowed on election day.

That’s New Hampshire’s thing, right? Unclear is exactly what impact it had on turnout.

It snowed heaviest today in upstate South Carolina, which is more conservative than other parts of the state, and thus, a strong area for Huckabee. It didn’t snow along the coast, where Sen. John
McCain was expected to do better with moderates and independents.

Turnout reports were relatively strong despite the snow. We’ll find out in a little bit who won this thing.

If you’re reading this blog tonight instead of, you know, actually going out and having fun, feel free to drop me a comment or question. I can answer this one already: No, Chuck Norris is not here.

--Sean Mussenden

WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney has just been projected by several news outlets as the winner of the Nevada caucuses.

That gives the former Massachusetts governor three wins in GOP contests -- Nevada, Michigan and Wyoming -- heading into the results later today of voting in South Carolina.

While Romney is not expected to be one of the top two finishers in the Palmetto State, his easy victory today in largely uncontested Nevada means he is guaranteed to head into Florida's Jan. 29 winner-take-all primary with the most victories among the Republican hopefuls.

But Romney has been emphasizing that the race for the nomination is a delegate race, and that he was not so much focused on winning today's major battle in the first Southern primary, but on the strategy of collecting the most delegates. South Carolina awards just 24 delegates to Nevada's 31.

Florida will represent a larger prize than any of the previous states, 57 delegates. Latest polls in Florida show the Republican race a virtual four-way tie, with Romney, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mike Huckabee in a statistical dead-heat.

Winning Florida could be key for one of the GOP contenders to finally establish themselves as a frontrunner going into Feb. 5, when 21 states will hold Republican primaries or caucuses.

In analyzing today's Nevada caucus results, political analysts say the Mormon vote helped boost Romney's showing.

And some pundits are now suggesting Mormons also could be a big factor in Romney's favor in other Western states like Utah, Idaho, delegate-rich California, and parts of Arizona -- rival McCain's home state.

-- Billy House

Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign is hoping to score with a new radio ad airing in South Carolina featuring Earvin "Magic" Johnson.

In the ad, the all-time Los Angeles Lakers great reminds voters that experience counts – on the basketball court or in the White House.

“Whether it's winning championships or a president who can lead us back to greatness, I'll always want the most prepared and experienced person leading my team," says Johnson, who has endorsed Clinton and campaigned with her.

“That's why I'm asking you to join me in voting for Hillary Clinton for President,” Johnson says.

But who will Johnson’s career-long arch-nemesis, Boston Celtic great Larry Bird, be endorsing?

Regardless, Johnson certainly had some magical moves in his storied college and NBA basketball career.

As for Clinton? Check out some of these moves when she and Johnson appeared together at an event in South Los Angeles in 2007.



-- Billy House