Thu, May 15, 2008 - 4:22 PM

In the two months preceding the North Carolina presidential primary, Bill Clinton stumped for his wife in 53 towns in the state, and all but a handful were tiny, working class areas.

Polls showed Hillary Clinton closing the gap in the final week before the primary, based on support from white, working class voters in these little towns her husband stopped in. Sometimes, he hit six or seven in one day.

Pundits called Bill Clinton her secret weapon in rural North Carolina. She needed a monster showing with white, working class voters and her husband’s visits were supposed to drive her comeback, the pundits said.

Even Bill Clinton seemed convinced that his political pull had not faded over the last year, when many urban and educated Democrats abandoned him because of his attacks on Barack Obama. He sounded very self assured on the Sunday before the election when he told a crowd in Morganton, N.C. that, in other states, his wife did much better when he swung through town on her behalf.

“In every place I did a front porch rally, on Election Day, Hillary got more than 60 percent of the vote in those counties, So don’t break my string and embarrass me,” he told the crowd.

Well, Bill, consider yourself embarrassed. I went back and ran the numbers today. From March 21 to May 6, Bill stopped in towns in 43 counties in North Carolina. In only six counties did his wife get more than 60 percent of the vote. In fact, Obama won 23 of those counties to Clinton’s 20.

I did not go back and check the correlation between margin of victory and his campaign stops in other states, so I don’t know if his 60 percent streak boast was actually true.

Certainly some of the county losses in North Carolina can be explained by the fact that his tour included a few stops to large metro areas, which overwhelmingly went for Obama – Charlotte, Winston-Salem and Raleigh. But all but a small handful of his stops were in small towns, where he held the sort of front porch rallies he mentioned in the above quote.

The full breakdown is below, and includes the county, the vote split, and cities Bill Clinton visited in those counties.

--Sean Mussenden

Bill Clinton’s NC Tour ’08 – 53 Towns in 42 counties from March 21 until May 6.

Alamance County – 57-41 Obama
Elon

Buncombe County – 55-44 Obama
Asheville

Burke County -- 68-30 Obama
Morganton

Caldwell County – 68-28 Clinton
Lenoir

Cabarrus County – 51-47 Clinton
Kannapolis

Catawba County – 56-42 Clinton
Newton
Hickory

Columbus County – 58-38 Clinton
Whiteville

Craven County – 54-42 Obama
New Bern x 2

Cumberland County – 66-32 Obama
Hope Mills

Davidson County – 56-41 Clinton
Thomasville
Lexington

Durham County – 75-23 Obama
Durham

Edgecomb County – 68-30 Obama
Rocky Mount

Forsyth County – 67 – 32 Obama
Kernersville
Winston-Salem

Franklin County – 52-46 Obama
Louisburg

Gaston County – 53-45 Clinton
Gastonia

Guilford County – 68-30 Clinton
Greensboro
High Point

Halifax County – 60-37 Obama
Roanoke Rapids

Harnett County – 52-45 Clinton
Dunn
Lillington

Iredell County – 53-44 Clinton
Statesville

Johnston County – 53-44 Clinton
Smithfield

Lee County – 53-43 Clinton
Sanford

Lenoir County – 55-42 Obama
Deep Run

McDowell County – 71-25 Clinton
Marion

Mecklenburg County – 70-29 Obama
Charlotte
Huntersville

Nash County – 58-39 Obama
Rocky Mount

Onslow County – 49-47 Obama
Jacksonville x 2

Orange County – 70-29 Obama
Hillsborough

Pasquotank County – 63-34 Obama
Elizabeth City

Person County – 48-48 (Clinton won by 3 votes)
Roxboro

Pitt County – 60-38 Obama
Winterville

Randolph County – 62-34 Clinton
Asheboro

Rockingham County – 50-46 Clinton
Reidsville

Robeson County – 51-41 Clinton
Pembroke
Lumberton

Rowan County – 50-48 Obama
Salisbury

Surry County – 72-26 Clinton
Elkin
Mt. Airy

Scotland County – 55-41 Obama
Laurinburg

Union County – 50-48 Clinton
Monroe

Vance County – 61-36 Clinton
Henderson

Watauga County – 55-44 Obama
Boone

Wake County – 65-34 Obama
Apex
Cary
Raleigh
Zebulon

Wayne County – 58-38 Obama
Goldsboro

Wilkes County – 72-26 Clinton
North Wilkesboro

Wilson County – 62-36 Obama
Wilson

Merchandise for the 2008 Republican Convention in Minnesota was unveiled this week during a fashion show at the Mall of America. Apparently the dress code for Grand Old Partyers this year won't be a conservative three-piece suit, unless one of the pieces of that suit is a pair of loud, red striped pants.

Zubaz, a line of baggy pants that enjoyed (mercifully brief) popularity in the early 1990s, were among the styles previewed at the show and that are now available for purchase (for $30) on the convention Web site.

Zubaz have a Minnesota connection: the pants were created by two Minnesota gym owners who wanted pants that would be comfortable for weightlifters to work out in. And, according to BadFads.com, when demand for the ostentatious pants peaked, Zubaz turned to the Minnesota Department of Corrections to have female inmates sew their products.

A brief slideshow of the Mall of America fashion show is on The Minnesota Monitor Web site.

-- Mark Young

Wed, May 14, 2008 - 5:36 PM

Multiple sources are reporting that John Edwards will endorse Barack Obama tonight in Michigan, dealing yet another blow to Hillary Clinton's ongoing bid for the presidency.

Edwards hinted in a television interview last week that he would endorse Obama. Asked in a TV interview who he would endorse, he said he would endorse the person he had voted for in the North Carolina primary. "I just voted, I just voted for him on Tuesday," he said. Notice the him. We were pretty sure he wasn't talking about Mike Gravel.

--Sean Mussenden

WASHINGTON – U.S. Rep. Tim Mahoney, a Democrat from Palm Beach Gardens and one of Florida’s uncommitted superdelegates, says he’s enjoying quality face-time with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by not endorsing either.

Mahoney’s been invited to another meeting tonight in Washington with Clinton, after meeting with her last Wednesday. He’s also had a semi-private meeting with Obama, along with about six other superdelegates.

As Mahoney sees it, his main goal during such get-togethers is to insist Florida’s delegates get seated at the party nominating convention; he won’t even consider endorsing either candidates until that is assured, Mahoney said.

But Mahoney also says his uncommitted status is providing opportunities to talk to both potential presidential candidates about issues important to Florida, and “once you are with one or the other, you can’t talk to the other one.”

Will he ever endorse, then?

“The answer is eventually – not now,” he said in an interview.

More generally, Mahoney says he feels uncomfortable with the role of “superdelegate,” a role he got by virtue of his elected position in Congress.

He said he doesn’t like the idea that “some folks,” such as himself, are simply given that status and can show up at the nominating convention.

Still, Mahoney says he will attend the convention to perform his role of superdelegate, if he has to do so.

He also admits he didn’t even know he was a super delegate by virtue of being a congressman until a reporter called and told him.

“That was a surprise,” he said.

-- Billy House

Bloggers, I hate to break it to you.

But you’re one of us now.

The Democratic National Convention Committee has selected its “blogger corps.” A political blogger from each state was selected to attend.

The DNCC received more than 400 applications from bloggers across the country.

Those selected had to show they’ve become recognized authorities on state and local politics, submit daily audience information and illustrate the reach and impact of their posts.

Each blogger (list here) will be credentialed and seated with their state delegations. They’ll also have access to the floor of the convention hall. And there will be a blogger pool, made up of to-be-determined bloggers.

Sounds suspiciously like the hated main-stream media, doesn’t it?

Some reaction from the selected bloggers here, here and here.

And an interview on SquareState.net with Howard Dean about greater accessibility for bloggers.

-- Amy Dominello

With a Democratic win in Mississippi’s special election in the First Congressional District, the conventional wisdom appears to be that the Republicans might be facing some trouble come November.

The District has been a long-time Republican stronghold, but Democrat Travis Childers beat out Republican Greg Davis by 54 percent to 46 percent. Davis and Childers will face each other in the general election in the fall.

The seat was vacated by Roger Wicker, a Republican who was appointed to Trent Lott’s post in the Senate.

Davis had brought in Dick Cheney to campaign to keep the seat in Republican hands and attempted to cast Childers as a liberal connected to Barack Obama.

What the implications are for the fall’s elections remain to be seen. But it is the third seat in recent special elections to change hands from Republican to Democrat.

And, as one would imagine, Democrats crowed about their victory:

From Rep. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., the chairman of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee:

“After three consecutive Special Election defeats in districts President Bush twice won easily, it is abundantly clear the American people have turned their back and shut the door on the special interest driven agenda of the Republican Party. There is no district that is safe for Republican candidates because President Bush's failed policies have hurt every community in America.”

But if you expected the Republicans to fire back, you would be wrong.

House Republican Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, is sounding the alarm bell to his fellow Republicans:

“The results in MS-01 should serve as a wake-up call to Republican candidates nationwide. As I’ve said before, this is a change election, and if we want Americans to vote for us we have to convince them that we can fix Washington.”

-- Amy Dominello

Mon, May 12, 2008 - 3:26 PM

Sen. Jim Webb still hasn’t endorsed Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, but Webb’s GI bill was front and center on the stump with Obama today in West Virginia.

In Charleston, W. Va., Obama hammered Republican presidential nominee John McCain for opposing Webb’s bill:

“I have great respect for John McCain’s service to this country and I know he loves it dearly and honors those who serve. But he is one of the few Senators of either party who oppose this bill because he thinks it’s too generous. I couldn’t disagree more. At a time when the skyrocketing cost of tuition is pricing thousands of Americans out of a college education, we should be doing everything we can to give the men and women who have risked their lives for this country the chance to pursue the American Dream.”

Clinton has sponsored Webb’s bill as well. McCain supports a different bill introduced by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, which aims to expand educational benefits for armed service personnel who stay in the military.

--Neil H. Simon

Republicans are bringing in the big guns in Mississippi today.

Vice President Dick Cheney is going to be at a rally in Southaven to campaign for Republican Greg Davis.

Davis faces Democrat Travis Childers in a special election Tuesday for the congressional seat. The seat was vacated by Roger Wicker, who was appointed to Trent Lott’s post in the Senate.

The seat is important as Republicans struggle to keep House seats. In a radio interview last week, Cheney said the District One seat is a “very important one.”

“It's been in conservative hands for a long time and we'd hate to see the liberals gain control,” he said.

On their end, Democrats took the opportunity to take a swipe at Davis as well as Cheney’s connections to oil companies.

The state party sent a press release this morning, in which Childers criticizes Davis for bringing “Big Oil’s best friend, Dick Cheney, to North Mississippi.”

-- Amy Dominello

Mon, May 12, 2008 - 1:30 PM

In case you missed it over the weekend, a funny parody of Hillary Clinton on “Saturday Night Live.”

It’s a little long, but the send-up is pretty good.



-- Amy Dominello

WASHINGTON – GOP Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite of Brooksville went on the offensive this morning with an op-ed articled to promote her bill to give returning Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans greater access to college aide.

Brown-Waite’s legislation is a companion to the the Post-9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance Act, sponsored in the Senate by Virginia Democrat James Webb, a Marine and former Reagan administration Navy secretary.

Her column entitled “Helping the next Greatest Generation,” and was written with Arizona Democrat Harry Mitchell. Here’s how it appears in today’s editions of The Washington Times;
http://washingtontimes.com/article/20080512/EDITORIAL/110368091/1013

At issue is a bill that would pay the tuition costs of the most expensive state school for returning vets, as well as a housing and books stipend. Current education benefits are much less — about $1,100 a month.

But the Pentagon argues the improved benefits would make military retention difficult, as service members will seize on the opportunities to go to the public universities of their choice.

And presumptive GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain, the sponsor of a competing Senate GI bill, agrees, as does GOP Rep. Adam Putnam of Bartow, sponsor of McCain’s competing bill in the House. They depict their competing bill as being structures to kick in additional rewards for longer service.

And the Webb-Brown-Waite bill last week hit another snag. A group of fiscally conservative Democrats, say the proposal that would cost too much and should be funded under Democrats pay-as-you-go rules.

-- Billy House

Fri, May 09, 2008 - 2:14 PM

WASHINGTON – What’s delegates got to do with it?

Hillary Clinton's camp has come up with yet another reason she should top the Democrat ticket this fall.

They argue her candidacy would be far more competitive in some key U.S. House districts than would Barack Obama's, and thus far more beneficial to Democrats running for Congress.

Her campaign team made that case to reporters gathered at a breakfast her today. Essentially, they said 20 freshmen Democratic members of the House are in districts that voted for President Bush in 2004 need her.

“These freshmen need a nominee who can compete in their tough districts,” says a handout given to the reporters.

Here’s their logic. (Warning! It’s headache producing, perhaps even outright dubious in parts.)

1) Of those 20 districts, they say, Clinton has outpolled Obama in 16 of them. The Clinton team includes Rep. Heath Shuler’s district in North Carolina in that group. But then, they also included Tim Mahoney’s district in Florida, a state where the Democratic primary was not supposed to count and where the candidates did not really campaign.

2) Thirteen of those 20 districts, they say, have more than the national average of seniors over the age of 65. (The Shuler and Mahoney districts are among them.) And nationally, they note Clinton has won seniors by 24 points.

3) Half of these districts are more than 40 percent rural, and Hillary has won rural voters nationally by 8 points. (But then, wouldn’t a Devil’s Advocate point out that means they are 60 percent non-rural?)

4.) Hispanics make up more than 10 percent of the voters in 6 of the districts (count Mahoney’s district again.) And nationally, Clinton has won Hispanic voters by 30 percentage points over Obama.

5) But then – the Clinton team's argument suddenly diverges from focusing on districts being held by freshmen Democrats. The note she has won 10 of the 15 districts rated as “toss-up” races this fall by one non-partisan political newsletter, The Cook Political Report, while Obama has just one 4. Many of those districts are toss-ups because the incumbent has retired or will at the end of this year, not because an incumbent Democrat is in trouble. They include Alabama’s fifth congressional district and Mississippi’s first congressional district in that mix.

Put all of this information together and the Clinton team says it paints a clear picture -- she is the candidate best suited to help Democrats increase their majority in the U.S. House.

“Hillary is the candidate who will win in tough districts,” they say.

Even, their argument must add, if she has apparently lost the tough battle for delegates.

-- Billy House

Everybody says it’s over – except that Hillary Clinton keeps campaigning, running ads and raising money.

This rainy morning, her chief strategist and communications director told reporters that she can -- and will -- win the Democratic nomination, thanks to Florida, Michigan, the states yet to vote and the superdelegates.

“We move forward with a sense of continuing enthusiasm,” Geoff Garin, the strategist and pollster, said. Really.

The news media have been chastised in the past for calling elections too soon, he said, arguing that's happening now.

He and Howard Wolfson, the communications director, laid out the campaign’s rosy scenario for an hour at a breakfast with more than 50 journalists sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor.

They reiterated that all Florida and Michigan delegates should be seated at the national convention in August, and they should be allocated by the way they were voted on primary day, even though Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan. The campaign would consider ceding the “uncommitted” vote in Michigan to Obama.

They also reasserted that:
 The superdelegates’s function is to consider the long sweep of the primaries and then decide who’s the better nominee for the party and the better president;
 Clinton has a better chance of beating John McCain than does Barack Obama;
 Clinton is clearly the stronger candidate among seniors, Latinos and blue-collar women who don’t have a college education – voters who will be important in the general election.

Garin’s analysis, based on the most-recent state polls, shows Clinton beating McCain in the Electoral College by 42 electoral votes. Obama lags McCain by eight.

He repeatedly said it’s hard to imagine winning the 270 votes needed to win in the Electoral College without Ohio or Florida or both, and Clinton can win those states and Missouri in the fall, he said.

But the pair also struck a conciliatory tone, saying that they believe Obama also could beat McCain.

And while the Clinton-Obama fight may seem like warfare, Garin likened it to a tennis match.

“We are not oblivious to the environment in which we are operating. But this is very much like a tennis match. When you watch them on TV and somebody is in a men’s match down a few games in the third set, I think you would be disappointed if a person walked off the court, and you ought to be disappointed if a person walked off the court.

“That is not the way the game is played and sometimes even when people are down two sets to love, and down a couple of games in the third set, they end up winning by the fifth set. So Senator Clinton goes on with the same energy and commitment she has throughout the process,” he said.

And, if Obama does win the nomination, “We will do everything we can to see him elected,” Wolfson declared.

-- Marsha Mercer

Thu, May 08, 2008 - 1:07 PM

John McCain’s campaign just sent around a message that tactfully combines a fundraising plea with a Mother’s Day message.

Along with the message, signed by his wife Cindy, is a link to a Web video with McCain and his 96-year-old mother, Roberta.

In the short video set to “Leave it to Beaver” type music, Roberta McCain talks about the day her son was born and says he was the “sweetest, nicest child I’ve ever known.”

That may come as a shock to some who have been victims of McCain’s infamous temper, although Roberta McCain concedes her son is “not perfect.”

Also interesting are the labels that pop up identifying John McCain as the son and Roberta McCain as the mother. Given the concerns that the 71-year-old McCain is too old to be president, was the McCain camp nervous that viewers may think Roberta McCain is his wife?

-- Amy Dominello

Can you say acronym overkill?

The Republican Party of Virginia can.

The GOP launched the AG-LG-RPV challenge today. Don’t know what that stands for? Well, duh, the letters stand for Attorney General-Lieutenant Governor-Republican Party of Virginia.

Attorney General Bob McDonnell, Lieutenant Governor Bill Bolling, and Virginia Republican Party Chairman John Hager are leading the effort to build up the party’s grassroots organization. The challenge calls for doubling the size of every local Republican committee before Labor Day. And there is a cash reward.

The party said in a statement that committees that meet the challenge will get more funding for this fall’s get-out-the-vote efforts.

“The goal of the AG-LG-RPV challenge is to help our local Republican committees recruit a new generation of volunteers,” said Bolling, who is seeking the governor’s mansion in 2009. “If we do this effectively, it will improve our chances of victory in 2008 and 2009.”

To win the cash prize, committees will also be tested on the letters in the acronym. Kidding, of course.

Wed, May 07, 2008 - 5:58 PM

Tuesday’s big Obama victory in North Carolina still hasn’t moved superdelegate Muriel K. Offerman of Cary, N.C., into making a choice.

“I’m still uncommitted at this point, though I’m certainly paying attention to yesterday’s results,” said Offerman, 72, a deputy chairman of the state employment security commission.

Offerman, who initially was a backer of favorite-son candidate John Edwards, says she’s still not even leaning one way or the other.

Offerman said she did receive a telephone call Wednesday from the Obama campaign, which said “they would very much like me to no longer be uncommitted.”

But “my understanding is as of today it is not over – that there are a number of things happening. I’m hearing rumors,” says Offerman.

For instance, she said there is talk that top Clinton campaign advisor Terry McAuliffe was working hard to try to sway some declared Obama super delegates into switching their allegiances, which Offerman said is “a tough sell right now.”

There also is talk that something will be done with regard to some how counting Florida and Michigan, and she added, “we can’t write off Florida and Michigan.”

“I don’t think that will get her enough delegates, but it would help her with the popular vote (count),” said Offerman.

As for herself, Offerman says she does not particularly feel any pressure to do anything but to exercise her best judgment, despite the Obama’s resounding victory in her home state.

She still holds to what she’s been saying – that she will wait until the primaries are over.

“And there are a few more to come,” she says.

-- Billy House