Washington Bureau

What’s Delegates Got To Do With It?

WASHINGTON – What’s delegates got to do with it?

Hillary Clinton's camp has come up with yet another reason she should top the Democrat ticket this fall.

They argue her candidacy would be far more competitive in some key U.S. House districts than would Barack Obama's, and thus far more beneficial to Democrats running for Congress.

Her campaign team made that case to reporters gathered at a breakfast her today. Essentially, they said 20 freshmen Democratic members of the House are in districts that voted for President Bush in 2004 need her.

“These freshmen need a nominee who can compete in their tough districts,” says a handout given to the reporters.

Here’s their logic. (Warning! It’s headache producing, perhaps even outright dubious in parts.)

1) Of those 20 districts, they say, Clinton has outpolled Obama in 16 of them. The Clinton team includes Rep. Heath Shuler’s district in North Carolina in that group. But then, they also included Tim Mahoney’s district in Florida, a state where the Democratic primary was not supposed to count and where the candidates did not really campaign.

2) Thirteen of those 20 districts, they say, have more than the national average of seniors over the age of 65. (The Shuler and Mahoney districts are among them.) And nationally, they note Clinton has won seniors by 24 points.

3) Half of these districts are more than 40 percent rural, and Hillary has won rural voters nationally by 8 points. (But then, wouldn’t a Devil’s Advocate point out that means they are 60 percent non-rural?)

4.) Hispanics make up more than 10 percent of the voters in 6 of the districts (count Mahoney’s district again.) And nationally, Clinton has won Hispanic voters by 30 percentage points over Obama.

5) But then – the Clinton team's argument suddenly diverges from focusing on districts being held by freshmen Democrats. The note she has won 10 of the 15 districts rated as “toss-up” races this fall by one non-partisan political newsletter, The Cook Political Report, while Obama has just one 4. Many of those districts are toss-ups because the incumbent has retired or will at the end of this year, not because an incumbent Democrat is in trouble. They include Alabama’s fifth congressional district and Mississippi’s first congressional district in that mix.

Put all of this information together and the Clinton team says it paints a clear picture -- she is the candidate best suited to help Democrats increase their majority in the U.S. House.

“Hillary is the candidate who will win in tough districts,” they say.

Even, their argument must add, if she has apparently lost the tough battle for delegates.

-- Billy House





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