Washington Bureau

Giuliani Spin: Florida Means More than Iowa, New Hampshire

Even the wildest speculation over Thursday’s Iowa Republican presidential caucuses and Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary does not include chatter that Rudy Giuliani might win either contest.
But in a detailed New Year’s Eve memo, Giuliani’s campaign political director reassures supporters that the former New York City mayor is “looking good” where it counts – namely in Florida on Jan. 29 and the “Super Tuesday” primary states that follow a week later.
“History will prove us right,” writes Brent Seaborn, referring to the Giuliani team’s strategy to focus more on Florida’s primary and then the huge bloc of delegate-rich states like California, Illinois and New York that hold their primaries on Feb. 5
Seaborn even suggests that emphasizing Iowa and New Hampshire is old-school politics, “the old “Clinton/Carter approach.”
Despite such proclamations, sending such a memo to supporters seems to reflect some worry about possible perceptions over the next week that Giuliani is not faring well.
The memo is detailed in its one-sided analysis – and even offers a prediction that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will win in Iowa and a concession that Giuliani could place out of the top three Republicans in that state.
“Many believe the Romney organization (and a few million more dollars of get-out-the-vote-money) will pull this one out for their campaign,” Seaborn writes.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee “was climbing rapidly in polls before Christmas, he now seems to have plateaued," it adds.
As for New Hampshire, Seaborn writes the outcome is very much in flux. He notes Romney has the advantage of being a former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, and that Arizona Sen. John McCain won the state’s 2000 primary and has a lot of endorsements. But “the unprecedented personal spending by Gov. Romney should not be underestimated,” he suggests.
Then comes Michigan (Jan. 15), and Nevada and South Carolina (Jan. 19).
But Seaborn argues that despite all of the attention given to these early states, “only 78 delegates will be picked prior to Florida whereas 1,039 will be picked on Jan. 29 and Feb. 5.”
He also notes that the states holding primaries and caucuses before Feb. 5 will allocate their delegates to multiple candidates under varying state election laws and state-party rules. That makes it unlikely that any single candidate will win all or any of one state’s delegates except Florida’s, which will be winner-take-all.
Florida alone will account for more than 40% of all delegates allocated before February 5th – it 57 delegates almost twice as many as the next largest state.
“It is therefore easy and correct to conclude that in a multiple candidate race, whichever candidate wins Florida, with their winner-take-all delegates, will very likely have a delegate lead going into February 5th,” Seaborn proclaims.
Seaborn points out that for most of the second half of 2007 Giuliani has led the polls in Florida. As in all races, he concedes, there will be signs of tightening in Florida polling as Election Day approaches, “but also expect us to consolidate more support as candidates drop out of the race.”
“We are very proud of our Florida organization, which, like all of our state organizations, is prepared for the long, hard fight to win,” he writes.
“One should conclude, as voting nears, that our campaign is focused on the right prize - winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination,” Seaborn claims. “Our national campaign is the right strategy for getting it done.”

-- Billy House
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