Wed, January 02, 2008 - 12:48 PM

In the “Thanks for Nothing” category comes this announcement today from Republican National Committee Chairman Robert M. “Mike” Duncan that the RNC has raised more than $83 million in 2007 – exceeding what Duncan says was the RNC’s own internal goals.
Duncan says more than 800,000 supporters sent an average of $227,000 to the RNC every single day. The RNC is debt free and had $17.2 million cash on hand at the end of the year, all of which will be dedicated to helping elect Republicans in 2008, he says.
Why such success?
According to Duncan, “millions of hard-working Americans are rejecting the Democrat vision of higher taxes, government-run health care, and retreat from the War on Terror.”
Not given even a passing mention in the release – much less a thank you -- is that U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, a Republican from Florida, was the RNC general chairman for most of the year until he resigned from the post in October. In that role, Martinez had been instrumental in helping to raise resources for the party and its presidential and other candidates.

-- Billy House

Even the wildest speculation over Thursday’s Iowa Republican presidential caucuses and Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary does not include chatter that Rudy Giuliani might win either contest.
But in a detailed New Year’s Eve memo, Giuliani’s campaign political director reassures supporters that the former New York City mayor is “looking good” where it counts – namely in Florida on Jan. 29 and the “Super Tuesday” primary states that follow a week later.
“History will prove us right,” writes Brent Seaborn, referring to the Giuliani team’s strategy to focus more on Florida’s primary and then the huge bloc of delegate-rich states like California, Illinois and New York that hold their primaries on Feb. 5
Seaborn even suggests that emphasizing Iowa and New Hampshire is old-school politics, “the old “Clinton/Carter approach.”
Despite such proclamations, sending such a memo to supporters seems to reflect some worry about possible perceptions over the next week that Giuliani is not faring well.
The memo is detailed in its one-sided analysis – and even offers a prediction that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will win in Iowa and a concession that Giuliani could place out of the top three Republicans in that state.
“Many believe the Romney organization (and a few million more dollars of get-out-the-vote-money) will pull this one out for their campaign,” Seaborn writes.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee “was climbing rapidly in polls before Christmas, he now seems to have plateaued," it adds.
As for New Hampshire, Seaborn writes the outcome is very much in flux. He notes Romney has the advantage of being a former governor of neighboring Massachusetts, and that Arizona Sen. John McCain won the state’s 2000 primary and has a lot of endorsements. But “the unprecedented personal spending by Gov. Romney should not be underestimated,” he suggests.
Then comes Michigan (Jan. 15), and Nevada and South Carolina (Jan. 19).
But Seaborn argues that despite all of the attention given to these early states, “only 78 delegates will be picked prior to Florida whereas 1,039 will be picked on Jan. 29 and Feb. 5.”
He also notes that the states holding primaries and caucuses before Feb. 5 will allocate their delegates to multiple candidates under varying state election laws and state-party rules. That makes it unlikely that any single candidate will win all or any of one state’s delegates except Florida’s, which will be winner-take-all.
Florida alone will account for more than 40% of all delegates allocated before February 5th – it 57 delegates almost twice as many as the next largest state.
“It is therefore easy and correct to conclude that in a multiple candidate race, whichever candidate wins Florida, with their winner-take-all delegates, will very likely have a delegate lead going into February 5th,” Seaborn proclaims.
Seaborn points out that for most of the second half of 2007 Giuliani has led the polls in Florida. As in all races, he concedes, there will be signs of tightening in Florida polling as Election Day approaches, “but also expect us to consolidate more support as candidates drop out of the race.”
“We are very proud of our Florida organization, which, like all of our state organizations, is prepared for the long, hard fight to win,” he writes.
“One should conclude, as voting nears, that our campaign is focused on the right prize - winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination,” Seaborn claims. “Our national campaign is the right strategy for getting it done.”

-- Billy House

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., ever the faithful surrogate for John McCain, today blasted McCain’s GOP presidential primary rival Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for his recent remarks seeming to suggest the next president doesn’t need much foreign policy experience.
"The next president of the United States will face some of the most monumental foreign policy challenges in our nation's history. Because of this, I believe foreign policy experience matters. For Gov. Romney to say otherwise is naïve,” said Graham, in a statement released by McCain's campaign.
Graham’s statement comes a day after Arizona Sen. McCain’s campaign introduced a new Web video Tuesday seeking to portray Romney as dismissive of the need for foreign policy experience. The commercial carries images of an explosion, masked men holding weapons and displaying some kind of Islamic text, and other terrorism suggestive of threats to American security.
The advertisement does rely on a portion of a Romney quote in a recent interview to reflect that he does not think foreign policy is important, but that was not the entire quote and that is not what Romney was saying. However, Romney did say there was no need for a president to be an “expert” of foreign affairs.
Here’s the full Romney quote cited in McCain's ad, which is pulled from a Dec. 27 interview on Fox News’ Hannity & Colme: "Well, if we want somebody who has a lot of experience in foreign policy, we can simply go to the State Department and pluck out one of the tens of thousands of people who work there. They, of course, have been doing foreign policy all their careers. But that's not how we choose a president. A president is not a foreign policy expert."
For his part, Romney has been attacking McCain in ads regarding immigration and taxes, as the two debate who is the true conservative in the race.
Graham’s remark shouldn’t come as a surprise. He is typically attached-to-the-hip to Senate Armed Services Committee colleague McCain. That includes issues that even set them apart from President Bush, such as when the duo joined Sen. John Warner, R-Va., in battling Bush over the handling of terrorism suspects – a fight that put them at odds with some conservatives.

-- BIlly House

Mon, December 31, 2007 - 3:38 PM

Mike Huckabee’s theatrical news conference Dec. 31 in which he showed a negative TV ad hitting Mitt Romney to dozens of reporters and TV cameras while saying he wouldn't air it, ensured one thing: Millions would watch it on the Internet.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNZnUf6ygcg

Nor was Huckabee without new ad amunition in the final stretch. His campaign Web site touted two positive adshttp://www.constitution.org/usdeclar.htm

--Marsha Mercer

Happy New Year. Today mgwashington.com launches Herd on the Trail, a blog aimed at creating a community through conversation that will help us all maneuver the 2008 political landscape.

Our team of savvy journalists will mine Washington, the Web, the news media and campaign trail for the latest on politics and politicians, issues and insights -- and we’ll have fun doing it.

But that’s only half of it. We want you to participate. Tell us what you think -- what’s good, bad and ugly out there. Grab a cup of coffee and tell us what’s on your mind. It’s easy to register below and start commenting. Just remember to keep it clean and civil, please.

We’ll have boots on the ground (literally) in New Hampshire starting tomorrow and in South Carolina in a couple of weeks. Check back often for the very latest. Welcome to Herd on the Trail.

Here’s a question to get started: What’s the first change the next president should make on inauguration day?

-- Marsha Mercer