Thu, January 10, 2008 - 10:32 AM

Tired of all the pundit chatter, handicapping the GOP presidential race like a Super Bowl?
In a TV ad launched today in Florida by Rudy Giuliani’s campaign, the narrator says “the media loves process” and that “it’s easy to lose sight of what’s at stake -- an economy in peril. A country at war. A future uncertain.”
The ad goes on: “But Florida has a chance to turn down the noise. And show the world that leadership is what really matters.”

Perhaps what the ad really means is that it's been easy to lose sight of Giuliani, who decided not to campaign vigorously in Iowa or New Hampshire, and who did not finish among the top three GOP vote-getters in either state.
Instead, Giuliani has staked much of his campaign's fortunes on Florida, which holds its presidential primary on Jan. 29. And then the 22 states that hold their primaries on Feb. 5.

-- Billy House

It looks like Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., will endorse Barack Obama later today in Charleston, S.C., skipping over Hillary Clinton and his former running mate, John Edwards.

It's quite a snub to Edwards, though not entirely surprising. The two men, though they shared a ticket in 2004, were not exactly best friends.

The river of endorsements for every candidate flows faster and faster every day now -- from preachers, county commissioners, and more.

How much do these endorsements actually influence voters? In the case of Kerry, at least in a state like South Carolina, one has to imagine not much. He lost this state handily to Edwards in 2004.

But then, even two of South Carolina's best known Republican politicians -- Sen. Lindsey Graham and Sen. Jim DeMint -- have so far been unable to convince voters to back their preferred candidates -- Mitt Romney for DeMint and John McCain for Graham. The latest polls show Mike Huckabee in the lead here.

--Sean Mussenden

Wed, January 09, 2008 - 9:27 PM

There’s been a great deal of media buzz over the last week about Barack Obama’s ability to attract young voters to events, but I think we have underestimated the ability of Mike Huckabee to do the same.

The event at Furman University tonight was packed with college kids. Huckabee joked that many of them were only there in case Chuck Norris showed up.

And it turns out he was right, at least for a few. If you do not already understand why a bunch of college kids would show up just to see an aging Kung Fu star, well, I probably won’t be able to make you understand.

But I’ll try. Norris has become a pop-culture icon far bigger than himself. On the Internet, there are whole pages devoted to “true facts” (read: “not true facts”) about Norris that make him sound like a force greater than any god.

For example: “There are no endangered species, just a list of animals that Chuck Norris allows to live.” Google “Chuck Norris” – there are thousands more. And the kids – college students, adults with too much time on their hands, um, me – find it hilarious.

Norris is a big conservative, too. He endorsed Huckabee, appeared in a wry ad with the former Arkansas governor mocking his Internet persona, and shows up at campaign events from time to time.

Anyway, Davis Corey Hopkins (below, purple shirt), a sophomore at Furman and Michael Ollen, a freshman at Furman (below, gray shirt), and a bunch of friends were hoping for a Norris appearance. They brought homemade signs, one featuring Chuck Norris’ face and another of Huckabee with a little devil Chuck Norris and a little angel Chuck Norris on opposite shoulders.



Chuck Norris did not show up, but the crew still got Huckabee to sign their posters, which they will hang up in their dorm.

Turns out neither are Huckabee supporters. Hopkins is a Republican, but remains undecided in the race.

Ollen is a Democrat. “I’m from Maine,” he said, by way of explaining his political leanings. And though there are lots of Republicans in Maine – both of the state’s senators, for example – I get his meaning. Republicans in Maine tend to be pretty moderate, and would probably be Democrats if they lived in the South.

I ask them why they’ve become obsessed with the Huckabee-Norris nexus.

Hopkins: “I mean, it’s Chuck Norris.”

Ollen: “I just do what Chuck tells me to do.”

Apparently he doesn’t do everything Chuck tells him to do, otherwise he would vote for Huckabee. If I were Ollen, I’d be very afraid of a roundhouse kick to the head in the near future from a certain aging Kung Fu star. (Roundhouse kicks to the head are a big part of Chuck Norris Internet lore).

Perhaps hoping to avoid this punishment, he offers me some nice parting words about Huckabee: “The fact that he’d come play bass and get Chuck Norris to endorse him is pretty cool.”

The Huckabee bus left about an hour ago for Myrtle Beach, site of Thursday night's Republican debate. That's where I'm headed tonight too -- a five hour drive. Whoever said South Carolina was a small state was wrong.

--Sean Mussenden

A little more on Mike Huckabee's event in Greenville.

This event started the way a good number of Huckabee’s events start – with the former Arkansas governor rocking out on the bass guitar. It’s all part of the show, and the crowds eat it up.

To the national press corps traveling with Huckabee, these jam sessions get a little tiresome. But the bands love it. That’s doubly true when the band is comprised of a bunch of high school kids, as was the case tonight.

The band: Detour, of Clemson, South Carolina. Cool name, but potentially hazardous for Huckabee. He’s leading in the polls here, but had a new poll come out tonight that showed he had dropped into last place, the band’s name would have worked its way into every major newspaper tomorrow.

(As in: GREENVILLE, S.C. – Gov. Mike Huckabee’s bid to win South Carolina took a major detour Wednesday night with a poll showing that his lead in the state had evaporated. Huckabee learned of the news after jamming with a local band called “Detour.”)

But that didn’t happen.

I caught up with Detour afterwards. They’re all freshman in high school from Clemson. This was the second time they played with Huckabee in the last month.

Huckabee joined them for “Takin' Care of Business."

Daniel Hill, bass player, lent Huckabee his bass for the song, while he switched to guitar.

“He knows what he’s doing. We just told him what key, and he picked it right up,” Daniel told me after the show.

I asked Nic Allen – singer, keyboards – if he was nervous singing with a man who could become president. “Well, I was a little nervous, kind of,” he started.

Daniel chimed in: “Quit lying, you know you were nervous.”

Nic: “Yeah, I guess I was.”

The other two guys in the band are Alex Nigro, on guitar, and Jack Ryan on drums. I’m told Jack’s dad is a Tom Clancy fan.

--Sean Mussenden

Just left a Mike Huckabee campaign event at Furman University, where the former Arkansas governor unveiled his secret strategy to win South Carolina.

He’s out in front in the polls here, but he’s a cautious man. He told the politely raucous crowd – and that’s not an oxymoron, because I say so -- “If your neighbors say I’m not voting for Huckabee, well, then let the air out of his tires.”

That got a good laugh. The line will probably bring a newspaper headline tomorrow tagging Huckabee as the pro-vandalism candidate, he says. Tonight, at least, it’s a blog headline.

Obviously, he’s joking. There are lots of college students here, but also a lot of conservative Christians, and the thought of the latter actually following through on that mock order is pretty funny.

--Sean Mussenden

Has Maverick John McCain become George W. Bush 2.0?
That’s one of the claims made in a memo circulated today by Democratic National Committee strategists targeting the Arizona senator, the GOP victor in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary.
The aim is to depict McCain as now unacceptable to many independent voters, who are likely to be the key swing bloc come November’s general election.
“McCain loyalists might shout ‘Mac is Back,’ but it is only a short time before people remember why he went away to begin with,” writes DNC research director Mike Gehrke.
Gehrke goes on to cite news coverage from last year chronicling McCain’s then-plummeting poll numbers and his eventual fall from the perch early front-runner for the GOP nomination.
Much of that coverage blamed McCain’s problems to his sudden efforts toe the GOP establishment line, and reach out to the hard-core Republican base.
Such moves included his accepting a speech at Liberty University in Virginia at the request of the late conservative religious leader Jerry Falwell. It also included his voting to make permanent Bush tax cuts that he once criticized, and being the most prominent congressional defender of the war in Iraq (although McCain insists he started raising concerns early on about how the war was being executed.)
Despite McCain’s victory on Tuesday in New Hampshire, Gehrke writes that McCain now faces problems with independent voters because of that strategy to court the conservative base of his party -- even if some may have forgotten it.
“Republican partisans might buy the changes and even be happy with then,” writes Gehrke. “Mainstream pundits with a weak spot for his personal story and prickly personal style might overlook them.”
But Gehrke writes that exit polls of actual voters show that “McCain’s reinvention of 2007 has left him “with deep lingering problems with independents.”
He notes that 32 percent of the voters in the New Hampshire Republican primary in 2000 were independents, and that McCain that year won 61 percent of them. This year, while substantially more independents voted in the Republican primary, he wrote that McCain’s share of their votes fell to 38 percent.
“McCain’s reinvention as a right-wing partisan might convince the Republican base that they don’t have to worry about Maverick McCain standing in the way of a radical right-wing agenda,” writes Gehrke.
“However, swing voters who are looking for the Maverick McCain might be puzzled when this version of John McCain shows up at their doorstep, with his new baggage in town,” the memo concludes.

-- Billy House

Turns out that Hillary Clinton will not bust the Democratic candidate boycott of Florida, after all.
Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson made comments earlier today seeming to suggest the New York senator could show up to campaign in Florida during the final few days before the state's Jan. 29 primary.
That was surprising, because it would have meant that Clinton would be violating her pledge not to do primary campaigning in Florida or Michigan because they violated party rules by moving their primary dates up.
But Clinton spokesman Mo Elleithee now says Wolfson misspoke.
“We are honoring the pledge and will not campaign in Florida before the primary," he said in an e-mail.
Elleithee added: “We intend to wage a very spirited and aggressive campaign in the general election.”
What remains to be seen is whether Floridians will punish the Democratic nominee in November for the boycott. While Democrats stay away this month, Republicans are campaigning all over the state.

-- Billy House

After a second place finish in Iowa and a distant third place finish in New Hampshire, John Edwards brought his populist message to what he hopes is friendlier territory on Wednesday afternoon.

Speaking on the campus of Clemson University – about 8 miles from Seneca, South Carolina, the mill town where he grew up – Edwards made clear to about 300 supporters that he had no plans of dropping his bid for the Democratic nomination, despite his failure to win either of the first two contests.

“So far, there have been two contests, Iowa where I finished second, and New Hampshire where I finished third, and your voice here in South Carolina is going to be heard,” Edwards said, in a Southern-tweaked version of the concession speech he gave in New Hampshire Tuesday night.

“We’ve got a little time before the South Carolina primary (scheduled for Jan. 26). I won the primary in 2004,” Edwards said, prompting a member of the audience to yell, “Do it again.”

“But we have to make certain that every primary voter in South Carolina knows that I was born here, I know what your lives are like” he said.



Though Edwards won the state in 2004, the high-wattage campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were not a factor then.
Recent polls here show him running third behind both candidates, and political experts in the state said Wednesday that it is highly unlikely he will overtake either candidate, despite his home-state appeal.

Approximately half of the voters in the South Carolina democratic primary are likely to be African-Americans, and political watchers say that group’s vote – especially African-American women – could turn the election here.

Their support helped propel Edwards to victory last time. But this time around, Edwards is not the first choice of many African-American voters, polls show.
The crowd gathered outside an academic building at Clemson to watch Edwards underscored the challenge he faces.

I counted exactly three African-Americans in the largely white crowd.



One of them, Dorothy Jones of Clemson, voted for Edwards in 2004, but this time, she’s keeping her options open, and said she was leaning more towards Hillary Clinton than Edwards.
“She seems to have the most experience, and that’s important to me,” she said.

Speaking to reporters after his speech, Edwards faced a barrage of questions about how long he would stay in the race. “All the way to the White House,” he said, adding that he the outcome here in South Carolina would be key to his candidacy.

--Sean Mussenden

WASHINGTON – Hillary Clinton will put off campaigning in Florida, but is leaving open the door for appearances there in the last days before the state’s Jan. 29 primary.

The New York senator and other Democratic presidential candidates had already pledged to boycott Florida because it moved it primary date up in violation of the Democratic National Party rules. The state also was stripped of its delegates to the national party convention.

“We intend to honor that pledge,” said Clinton campaign communications director Howard Wolfson today.

But Wolfson characterized the pledge as extending “through the 26th,” leaving open the possibility the New York senator could make Florida appearances beginning the weekend before the Tuesday primary.

For Republicans, the delegate prize has been cut in half to 57 by their national party because of the state's primary date also violated GOP rules -- but were not stripped altogether. That means it remains a good deelgate prize in the GOP race, especially because of new state rules that give all those delegates to the winner, instead of dividing them among the top candidates.

There was no immediate comment from the campaigns of Democrats Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards on what the Clinton team was saying.

All the Democratic candidates had pledged to boycott Florida because it moved its primary up to Jan. 29, in violation of the national party schedule. Because of the pledge, they haven’t been campaigning here.

And because because Democratic candidates can’t win any Florida convention delegates, the primary’s importance will be mostly psychological as a momentum booster headed into the so-called Super Tuesday on Feb. 5, when 1,681 Democratic delegates will be decided in a deluge of contests in 22 states.

But after Jan. 26 – when South Carolina holds its primary – there are no other states until Feb. 5 set to hol Democratic primaries, which might be offended by candidatescampaigning in Florida and the party's set schedule.

South Carolina Democratic Party Chairwoman Carol Fowler could not immediately be reached today, for reaction to Wolfson’s comments.

Fresh off of her comeback victory in the New Hampshire primary, Clinton campaign manager Terry McAuliffe, Wolfson, and several of her backers in Congress participated in the conference call with reporters to enthusiastically outlined how she hopes to seize upon her momentum.

They spelled out how she planned compete in every state.

They said that definitely included South Carolina, which holds its primary on Jan. 26.

“This is a delegate race,” emphasized Wolfson.

Also during the call, Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., remarked how important it was for Clinton to compete in states with large Hispanic populations, like Nevada, and said that Clinton enjoys “such great respect” from Hispanics.

But when then pressed if Clinton would campaign in Florida, where she is leading in polls, Wolfson remarked no and said she would abide by the pledges to boycott both Florida and Michigan -- which also has moved it primary up in violation of DNC rules. But then, Wolfson went on to say the Clinton and other candidates have pledged not to campaign in Florida through Jan. 26 -- three days before the state's primary.

-- Billy House

First the tears were bad. Then they were good.

With Hillary Clinton’s win last night in New Hampshire, will the race for the White House generate more tears than a Lifetime movie?

Call me a cynic, but if pollsters find out that Hillary’s tears were what truly swayed voters I bet we’ll see lots of candidates showing cracks beneath their veneers.

Will Rudy cry over his failed marriages?

Will John Edwards cry about the one time he had to get his hair cut at Great Clips?

Will John McCain cry if the Straight Talk Express stalls?

More takes on the tears:

- Maureen Dowd

- American Spectator

- CQ’s Ground Game blog

- Cartoonist’s RJ Maton’s take (Scroll down and on the right)

- And the video clip on YouTube

- Amy Dominello

Tue, January 08, 2008 - 12:52 PM

A cadre of Hillary Clinton's backers are about to hold a conference call with reporters to discuss her momentum coming out of New Hampshire.

Among those scheduled to participate are Sens.Chuck Schumer of New York, Dianne Feinstein of California, Maria Cantwell of Washington, Bob Menendez of New Jersey and Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, Tex. Herd on the Trail will report what they have to say.

Prior to Tuesday's results in New Hampshire, there had been wide speculation that Clinton would immediately start focusing on the states up for grabs on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5 -- particularly California -- rathern than on South Carolina's Jan. 26 primary.

Latest polls show Obama surging into the lead in South Carolina, where African-Americans account for almost half of Democratic primary voters.

Also up for grabs that day is Obama’s home state of Illinois, and Clinton’s own state, New York. But while they may split those states, California is the richest state in terms of delegates.

But Clinton campaign manager Terry McAuliffe, in several televised interviews Tuesday night, said South Carolina will not be ignored.

It is not clear is how aggressive the Clinton campaign might be inanother contest that precedes Feb. 5 -- the Jan. 29 primary in Florida.

There are no delegates at stake in Florida because of penalties imposed by the national party for the state's moving its primary date up against party rules, and Clinton and other candidates have signed pledges to boycott the state.

But some analysts predict that Clinton, who leads in Florida polls, may suddenly ignore the boycott.
-- Billy House

John McCain may very well score a win with today’s New Hampshire Republican primary.
But even with a victory in the Granite state, will come some troubling signs for the Arizona Republican.
And one thing is already clear: a McCain victory today will be a far cry from his 18 percentage point win over George W. Bush in 2000, when the Arizona senator grabbed almost 50 percent of the primary vote.
First, a final Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Hampshire GOP voters shows McCain going into today’s voting is clinging to a statistically insignificant one percentage point lead over Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. It’s McCain with 32 percent, and Romney with 31 percent.
But helping McCain to soar to his New Hampshire victory in 2000 was his support from independent voters.
And today, state officials are predicting 150,000 undeclared voters will participate in the voting – roughly 45 percent of the entire expected turnout of a about 500,000. That should be good news for McCain.
However, the officials also predict that 90,000 of those independent voters will decide to vote in the Democratic primary, and 60,000 for a Republican candidate.
Much already has been written about surveys that seem to substantiate the predictions that most of the independents will, as in Iowa, give their support to Democrat Barack Obama.
But is their excitement over Obama the only reason? It's also likely that McCain’s high-profile stanceon the Iraq war, and other harder-lined conservative positions he has taken in hopes of appealing to more voters within his own party's base, play a role, too.
-- Billy House

After hailing his distant fourth-place showing in Iowa as a victory of sorts, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson appears to have slowed down in New Hampshire what had been a final blitz for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Richardson’s campaign, lingering in single-digits in the polls, shortened his campaign schedule in the state that hosts the country’s first presidential primary and could deal the final blow to Richardson’s candidacy.
Aides had been spinning the Iowa results (Richardson won two-percent) as a ‘making of the cut,’ saying caucus-goers put Richardson in the ‘final four.’ Their strategy went: Richardson could make the top-three in New Hampshire and then sneak into the top two by the time Nevada comes around January 19.
If it seemed unlikely then, it could seem even more unlikely after tonight. Real Clear Politics, averaging the most-recent polls, shows Richardson winning only six-percent in New Hampshire. And if western states are ‘Richardson Territory’ as his campaign has suggested, the polls don’t seem to back them up – in Nevada Richardson remains a long-shot fourth polling at six-percent, in California he draws three-percent.
As the country’s first viable major party Hispanic presidential candidate, Richardson, a former U.N. Ambassador and Energy Secretary, could still have a shot at V.P. or Secretary of State.
--Neil H. Simon

Mon, January 07, 2008 - 4:41 PM

It sure seemed this morning as if Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., was going to call it quits on his presidential bid.
And that would have meant GOP Rep. C. W. Bill Young of Indian Shores would be among early Hunter supporters left scrambling for another candidate to back in the Republican presidential sweepstakes.
Hunter announced a “major” announcement for 11 a.m.
That prompted even Hunter’s home state newspaper, The Los Angeles Times, to predict that he was folding his tent.
“It’s hard to imagine he will be saying anything other than his campaign for the Republican nomination has no future and that he is withdrawing,” opined The Times’ political blog.
But then, the newspaper was forced to recant:: “Hunter to withdraw? Nope, he fools us.”
In fact, Hunter’s “major announcement” was a complaint about his exclusion from the pair of Republican candidate debates this weekend. He also said he would remain a candidate "no matter what happens" in New Hampshire's Tuesday primary, despite all signs of a second poor showing following Iowa’s caucuses.
A spokesman for Young said today that the Florida congressman remains in Hunter’s camp.

-- Billy House

Virginia is among several states where efforts are under way to get New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's name onto presidential ballots, a New York City newspaper is reporting.
The New York Sun is reporting that the national chairman of the Draft Michael Bloomberg Committee says his group since Jan. 1 has gathered some 500 signatures toward putting the mayor's name on Virginia’s ballot.
"Our goal is to collect 20,000 signatures in Virginia and then move on to another state," Campbell told the newspaper. "We expect to move down to North Carolina next."
The Sun reported that Campbell, who is also chairman of the Independent Green Party of Virginia, said he hopes that by encouraging established third parties, such as the Green, Libertarian, and Independence parties, to petition to put Mr. Bloomberg on their ticket, his group can convince the mayor to run for president.
The news of such petitioning comes as Bloomberg and a dozen current and former elected officials from both parties are meeting in Norman, Okla., for a conference on ways to end “partisan polarization” in Washington.
Among the organizers of the conference are two former Democratic senators, Oklahoma’s David Boren and Georgia’s Sam Nunn, who last month both suggested they would consider urging Bloomberg to mount an independent presidential campaign if the major-party nominees to not embrace a track to more bipartisanship in dealing with the nation’s problems.

-- Billy House