Sat, January 19, 2008 - 10:37 PM

In case you don’t feel like wading through all the South Carolina exit polls, I’ll give you the Cliffs Notes version.


McCain won old people, Huckabee the young. (The Chuck Norris effect?)

McCain won pro-choice voters, Huckabee pro-life. (McCain is pro-life, but his stance on abortion is far less a part of his political identity than Huckabee).

Huckabee won the vote of people who go to church more than once a week. McCain won everyone else. (It’s no surprise that Huckabee got the votes of the hard-core evangelicals. But it looks like his effort to branch out to more secular voters was not as successful as he’d hoped. McCain even won amongst voters who go to church once a week).

McCain got the anti-Bush crowd, Huckabee the pro-Bush forces.

McCain got college grads, Huckabee got everyone else.

McCain won the Low Country and the Midlands, Huckabee the Pee Dee and the Piedmont.

McCain got the support of people who said they were getting ahead financially and people who said they were falling behind financially, Huckabee got the people who said they weren’t moving up or down. (In attempting to reach beyond religious voters, Huckabee spent a lot of time throwing a populist economic message at working class voters who had been hurt by the economic downturn. This suggests that effort did not go over that well).

Huckabee got people who make less than $30,000 per year, McCain got everyone else.

McCain won with people who said “personal qualities” were more important. Huckabee won with people who said issues matter more. (This might explain why McCain was able to overcome a less-than-hardline immigration stance that was unpopular with many conservatives here. Huckabee won anti-immigration voters).

McCain won independents, Huckabee won Republicans. (This was the key to McCain’s victory).

McCain won Catholics, Huckabee won Protestants. (Protestants accounted for four-fifths of voters in this primary, meaning McCain’s support amongst Catholics did not provide a huge boost).

McCain won cities and suburbs, Huckabee won rural areas.

And, lastly, McCain won the deficit hawks, Huckabee won the anti-tax crowd.

--Sean Mussenden

Some quick post-game analysis here:

With the win, John McCain heads into Florida next week as the only GOP candidate to have won more than one seriously contested state. (Yes, Mitt Romney has now finished first in three states, but only Michigan was a real test of strength. He did win the Wyoming and Nevada caucuses, but he was the only candidate to go after those states).

McCain’s victories have come in two very different states that represent two very different cross sections of the Republican party.

He won in New Hampshire, a moderate state, and in South Carolina, a conservative state, proving he can win in the South heading into Super Tuesday. He could not pick up the second piece in 2000, and it killed his campaign. Florida has elements of both Northeastern moderates and Southern conservatives, which suggests that McCain could well pull off another win there.

Both of McCain’s victories came in states where independents could vote in the GOP primary – so-called “open primary” states. He got significant support from independents in both of his victories, exit polls showed. In South Carolina for example, he pulled in 42 percent of independents, compared with 25 percent from Huckabee. Without that support, it might have been Huckabee giving the victory speech tonight.

Does that matter heading into Super Tuesday? A quick check of the open or closed status of primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday reveals a McCain advantage.

In most Southern states – Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia (sort of), and Tennessee – the primaries are open. That means Huckabee (and, perhaps, Fred Thompson in Tennessee if he remains in the race) will once again have to overcome independents siding with McCain to win. He should be able to do that in Arkansas, where he was governor, but he’ll face a battle with Thompson for Tennessee. In New England and California, the primaries are closed, but those aren’t exactly Huckabee territory.

And, of course, Romney or Rudy Giuliani could win Florida and derail the McCain train.

What about Huckabee? Huckabee’s path to victory in this race has always been through the South. His failure to win South Carolina tonight makes that path a bit rockier.

That’s my two cents. I’d love to hear your thoughts.

--Sean Mussenden

Mike Huckabee just took the stage to concede to Sen. John McCain, after the AP, NBC, CNN and pretty much everyone else called the race for the Arizona senator.

Huckabee said he called McCain moments ago to concede, and thanked him for running a "a civil, good, decent campaign." A veiled dig at Mitt Romney, methinks.

As you'd expect, Huckabee said tonight's second place finish is not the end for his campaign, as the GOP field moves onto Florida and Super Tuesday. "This is not an event. It's a process. And the process is far from over," he said to big cheers from the crowd here.

--Sean Mussenden

The crowd here at Huck HQ is a bit downcast, as McCain still has a four percent lead with 75 percent of precincts reporting. Huckabee was catching up for a while, but in the last twenty minutes, the lead has spread a bit for McCain.

If this thing tightens to within a few hundred votes at the end, expect to hear A LOT about voting machine problems in Horry County today. That's Myrtle Beach -- McCain country -- and his advisers are worried that voting problems there could hold him back.

State election officials say that the machine problems were not that big an issue, because voters could fill out paper ballots if the electronic ones weren't working. And if they didn't have enough paper ballots on hand?

The State newspaper quoted Election Commission spokesman Chris Whitmire saying that "voters could use almost anything - "a napkin, a paper towel" - on which they could write the name of a candidate and put it in a ballot box." Apparently this is allowable under South Carolina law. Seriously.

If I lived in South Carolina, I would vote exclusively on used beer coasters. What about you?

--Sean Mussenden

With about half of precincts reporting, John McCain has a three point lead over Mike Huckabee, but Huckabee is gaining as more results roll in. And they're feeling confident here.

A Huckabee advisor -- smiling broadly -- just stopped me to point out that Greenville results have not come in yet. That's expected to be strong Huckabee territory -- very strong base of evangelical conservatives there -- so they expect a big bump from that.

We'll see...

--Sean Mussenden

We could be in for a long night, folks. The networks are reporting that their exit polls show a slight lead for John McCain, too slight to call. Looks like we'll have to count the actual votes. Such a novel concept.

At Huckabee HQ, Former South Carolina Gov. David Beasley, one of Huckabee's top point men in the state, just came out to calm down the crowd, telling them not to get nervous, and predicting a win for Huckabee after all the votes are counted.

"Hang tight, we just might be here a while."

--Sena Mussenden

COLUMBIA, S.C. – Polls are closing in a few minutes in South Carolina, ending a cold, snowy and generally unseasonably miserable day of voting here in the GOP primary.

I’m live blogging the returns tonight from Gov. Mike Huckabee’s election night party in Columbia, S.C. A few minutes ago, I ran into Mike Campbell, whose dad Carroll Campbell was governor here from the late 1980s to the mid-1990s. Campbell has been around South Carolina politics all his life, and he told me he could not remember a time when it snowed on election day.

That’s New Hampshire’s thing, right? Unclear is exactly what impact it had on turnout.

It snowed heaviest today in upstate South Carolina, which is more conservative than other parts of the state, and thus, a strong area for Huckabee. It didn’t snow along the coast, where Sen. John
McCain was expected to do better with moderates and independents.

Turnout reports were relatively strong despite the snow. We’ll find out in a little bit who won this thing.

If you’re reading this blog tonight instead of, you know, actually going out and having fun, feel free to drop me a comment or question. I can answer this one already: No, Chuck Norris is not here.

--Sean Mussenden

WASHINGTON -- Mitt Romney has just been projected by several news outlets as the winner of the Nevada caucuses.

That gives the former Massachusetts governor three wins in GOP contests -- Nevada, Michigan and Wyoming -- heading into the results later today of voting in South Carolina.

While Romney is not expected to be one of the top two finishers in the Palmetto State, his easy victory today in largely uncontested Nevada means he is guaranteed to head into Florida's Jan. 29 winner-take-all primary with the most victories among the Republican hopefuls.

But Romney has been emphasizing that the race for the nomination is a delegate race, and that he was not so much focused on winning today's major battle in the first Southern primary, but on the strategy of collecting the most delegates. South Carolina awards just 24 delegates to Nevada's 31.

Florida will represent a larger prize than any of the previous states, 57 delegates. Latest polls in Florida show the Republican race a virtual four-way tie, with Romney, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Mike Huckabee in a statistical dead-heat.

Winning Florida could be key for one of the GOP contenders to finally establish themselves as a frontrunner going into Feb. 5, when 21 states will hold Republican primaries or caucuses.

In analyzing today's Nevada caucus results, political analysts say the Mormon vote helped boost Romney's showing.

And some pundits are now suggesting Mormons also could be a big factor in Romney's favor in other Western states like Utah, Idaho, delegate-rich California, and parts of Arizona -- rival McCain's home state.

-- Billy House

Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign is hoping to score with a new radio ad airing in South Carolina featuring Earvin "Magic" Johnson.

In the ad, the all-time Los Angeles Lakers great reminds voters that experience counts – on the basketball court or in the White House.

“Whether it's winning championships or a president who can lead us back to greatness, I'll always want the most prepared and experienced person leading my team," says Johnson, who has endorsed Clinton and campaigned with her.

“That's why I'm asking you to join me in voting for Hillary Clinton for President,” Johnson says.

But who will Johnson’s career-long arch-nemesis, Boston Celtic great Larry Bird, be endorsing?

Regardless, Johnson certainly had some magical moves in his storied college and NBA basketball career.

As for Clinton? Check out some of these moves when she and Johnson appeared together at an event in South Los Angeles in 2007.



-- Billy House

Fri, January 18, 2008 - 3:47 PM

Barbour has hope

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour was feeling optimistic Friday when he spoke at the Republican National Committee's Winter Meeting.

At first, the presidential race looked like it might not go so well for the Republicans, according to excerpts from his speech. But based on the Michigan primary results, he’s not so sure.

“It's interesting, I thought at the beginning it was bad for us, that Hillary, compared to the others, seemed to be the candidate in the center. I mean, Obama is running way to the left of Hillary ... I thought that might make her look more in the middle, but I don't think that's happened. People understand how liberal she is. ...

“The Michigan Democratic primary, she was unopposed and 45 percent of the Democrats didn't vote for her. They either voted 40 percent uncommitted and then, some of them voted for Dennis Kucinich. What kind of protest vote is that? If 45 percent of your party's voters, in a major state like Michigan, say, ‘I can't vote for the favorite for my party's nomination,’ let's just say that gives me hope.”

-- Amy Dominello

Did you know that former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is still running for president?

Sometimes, it's hard to tell, at least by watching CNN, MSNBC, FOX and other national media outlets, who have largely defined the bid for the Democratic nomination as a two person war between Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton. And sure, in South Carolina, Edwards is running way behind those two. But in Nevada, polls there show him with as good a chance of winning as Clinton or Obama.

Edwards released a witty web video yesterday called "Where is John?" It's an attempt to shame the big news organizations into giving him more face time on the air by looking at all the times pundits have ignored his campaign. And it's got dueling banjos, which everybody loves.

--Sean Mussenden

Thu, January 17, 2008 - 5:00 PM

Virginia’s first female member of Congress, Leslie Byrne, is out with a new poll today that suggests she has the Democratic support needed to win back the House seat she lost in 1994 to Republican Rep. Tom Davis.

The campaign’s poll of 400 likely Democratic voters shows Byrne leading Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerald Connolly, 39 percent to 29 percent, with political newcomer Doug Denneny drawing eight percent.

A memo attached to the poll says Connolly and Byrne both enjoy similarly high name recognition in the 11th district, which covers most of Fairfax and Prince William counties.

A spokesman for incumbent Tom Davis said the congressman has not yet decided whether he’ll run for an eighth term. Rep. Davis has typically put his re-election campaign together by the beginning of February. The spokesman said he expected Davis to decide by the end of January, but the issue had not been discussed with staff.

Federal Election Commission records show Davis has more than a million dollars in campaign cash on hand.

Denneny, a 22-year veteran of the U.S. Navy, had $13,917 in his treasury at the end of 2007. He launched his campaign in August.

Anybody thinking Davis would step aside and let his wife, former Virginia State Senator Jeannemarie Devolites, run for the congressional seat is likely rethinking that after November’s state elections. Devolites lost by more than 10 points and after the campaign was left with $3,190 in her campaign war chest.

--Neil H. Simon

In a year with a female presidential contender and women turning out to vote more often than men, a new site called CitizenJanePolitics has seized the moment to inspire further female participation.

Patricia Murphy, 36, a former communications director for Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga., launched the site in November to add a new voice to online political reporting. She’s not pushing any candidate or party – just involvement.

“I wanted to see something not only fun and engaging, but aimed at women,” she said. “I didn’t see it, so I started it.”

On top of her penchant for humor and a writing style reminiscent of a woman chatting with her friends, Murphy gets in her digs at the pundits with her weekly “Sunday Show Scorecard." Her question – if women make up more than half the voters, shouldn’t they be at least half of the voices in political discussions?

A recent post chastised CBS’ “Face the Nation” for failing to have any female guests on its Sunday broadcast after the New Hampshire primaries.

Murphy asked, "Without a woman, isn’t it hard to discuss the women’s vote that made the difference in New Hampshire?"

There is plenty of opinion on the media, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find much political slant on the pages of Jane. Murphy says readers have enough opinion out there already. She’s more interested in pushing women into the political process than toward a specific candidate.

Her call for action to fellow “Janes,” as she calls her readers: “There’s no better place for drama, intrigue and things that affect your life, and now there’s a Web site for it.”

--Neil H. Simon

GREENVILLE, S.C. -- The cold-hardy voters in Iowa and New Hamsphire are probably snickering at South Carolina today.

A half-inch of snow in upstate South Carolina overnight forced campaigns to scramble their campaign schedules. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, for example, had to cancel an event at a technical high school in Greenville because the school was closed today by the snow.

Candidates routinely struggled through feet of snow in the New Hampshire and Iowa to meet with voters. But in South Carolina, it’s a rare event. And to Northerners, the degree to which Southerners freak out about a tiny amount of snow is amusing.

In New England, I’m not sure what fell here overnight actually qualifies as snow. And this morning, it’s quickly turned to rain.

--Sean Mussenden

Late night talker Stephen Colbert took umbrage last night with Conan O'Brien's claim that O'Brien was responsible for Huckabee's win in the Iowa caucuses. O'Brien's claim is tied to a running gag on his show: The "Walker Texas Ranger" lever. O'Brien says the lever boosted the career of "Walker" star Chuck Norris, who in turn boosted the Huckabee campaign.



Colbert's assertion that the "Colbert Bump" deserves more credit for Huckabee's surge is probably more credible, if credible is a word that can be used to describe either host's claim. After all, Huckabee (jokingly?) asked Colbert to be his running mate back when Huckabee's polling numbers were in the single digits.

-- Mark Young