Sat, November 01, 2008 - 12:01 PM

NEW PORT RICHEY, Fla., —For want of a nail, or something like that.

State Sen. Mike Fasano has taken the podium here at Sims Park prior to Sarah Palin’s expected appearance, and underscored what he sees as Pasco County’s importance in Tuesday’s presidential election.

“Ladies and gentlemen—it’s still all about Pasco county, isn’t it?” he asked.

“As Pasco goes, so does the state. As the state goes, so goes the election. As the election goes, so goes the world!” he said.

Fri, October 31, 2008 - 2:08 PM

Barack Obama continues to trounce John McCain in TV ad spending, according to a new report from the Wisconsin Advertising Project.

From October 21st to October 28th, Obama spent $21.5 million on television advertising to McCain’s $7.5 million. The numbers do not include Obama’s 30-minute national TV and cable ad buy.

More than 74 percent of the spending has been in states that voted Republican in 2004.

The report shows Obama outspending McCain nearly 4 to 1 in Virginia, 3 to 1 in Florida and 2 to 1 in North Carolina.

For more interesting ad buy info, see the full report here.

--Neil Simon

Webb Says Obama OK for Gun Owners

In a powerful endorsement video, Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., gets personal about his family connection to hunting and shooting.

There is a genuineness to this video, dubbed “Barns for Obama: Virginia,” that allows gun-toting Democrat Webb’s endorsement of Obama to sink in more deeply than the average I-support-this-guy-and-you-should-too video. The only question, has Congress spent enough on rural broadband lines yet so people in Southwestern Virginia will see this video?



Retiring Sen. John Warner, R-Va., also stepped up his campaigning for McCain this week, recording a radio ad aimed at Hampton Roads voters. He warns if Democrats are left in charge, they will cut military funding that will weaken the Virginia economy.



--Neil Simon

Apparently voter turnout is pretty high already based on early voting, but in case people need extra motivation, I think clerks should give out candy to voters who come out today on top of the little "I voted" stickers.

What other ways do you recommend people could help increase participation?

Well, the funny folks at Trick or Vote have some ideas. Remember them from this wacky skeleton guy in Denver? Who sort of reminds me of this "turtle" guy who became a Web sensation.

Here's one of their latest videos. I suggest watching starting around 2:20 into it. The end is better than the beginning.



--Neil Simon

Thu, October 30, 2008 - 1:48 PM

Heavy voter turnout and too few voting machines and poll workers will “overwhelm” Virginia’s election system, according to a new study released today by a voting rights group that sued Virginia.

“The state of Virginia is not ready,” said Judith A. Browne-Dainis, co-director of Advancement Project, which unveiled the report at a news conference at the National Press Club. “They are not ready for this kind of turnout.”

The group is involved in a lawsuit filed on behalf of the Virginia NAACP against Virginia Governor Tim Kaine and election officials for unconstitutionally allocating polling place resources.

Presenting findings on five swing states, including Virginia, the report, dubbed “The End of the Line?” warns that long wait times for voters could deter them from participating on Election Day.

The voting rights advocacy group took umbrage with Kaine’s recent remark about the routine nature of waiting in line.

“We wait in line to buy coffee at Starbucks,” he said recently.

Brown said, “We do not think the right to vote should be likened to getting a latte… It is a right and the fact it is being made light of is outrageous.”

The study also pointed to the potential for longer lines in minority communities, where precincts may be equipped with fewer voting machines and turnout may dramatically increase this election.

“Based on this turnout, current allocations of polling place resources, i.e. voting equipment, poll workers and the like, appear to be inadequate and inequitably distributed in many jurisdictions,” said Elizabeth Westfall, deputy director of voter protection for Advancement Project.

In Richmond, the study found, based on July statistics, there are 20 percent more voters per machine in high minority precincts than in low minority precincts.

On the bright side, the relatively short ballot in most Virginia localities should speed along the voting process, the report found, saying voting should not take more than three minutes per voter on average.

--Neil Simon

Rep. Eric Cantor, R-Va., appears to be working the phones to make a run for the job of Republican Leader after House Republicans take an anticipated whooping on Election Day.

The American Spectator reports Cantor, a four-term congressman, currently serving as the House Deputy Republican Whip, is calling Republicans who are safe bets for reelection to lock in their support in a potential leadership battle against either Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, the Republican Leader, or Rep. Roy Blunt, the Republican Whip.

Cantor chief of staff Rob Collins dismissed the article as “inaccurate.”

“He’s always on the phone. He’s in touch with members. He’s in touch with voters,” Collins said. “He’s won of the most accessible members of Congress.”

But he’s not campaigning to lead House Republicans, Collins said. “His primary focus is on getting reelected and helping other members get elected.”

Cantor has spent $2.3 million dollars so far this election cycle from his political action committee, ERIC PAC (Every Republican is Crucial), according to the Center for Responsive Politics. He gave more than $900,000 to 126 House Republican candidates across the country (See the list of who he gave to here.)

Some of the expenditures of note:

-$10,000 each to these Virginians seeking reelection: Reps. Virgil Goode, Frank Wolf, Thelma Drake and Rob Wittman and former Gov. Jim Gilmore's Senate campaign.

-$5,000 to Keith Fimian, who is running for the seat left vacant by retiring Republican Rep. Tom Davis

-$10,000 to Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, who finds herself in a closer race after she called for an investigation into which members of Congress are “anti-American”

Cantor’s PAC's campaign spending tops that of Boehner’s Freedom Project PAC, which gave $825,398 to Republican candidates this cycle, and Blunt’s Rely on Your Beliefs PAC, which spent $504,104 on candidates this cycle, according to the Center.

Cantor’s PAC donations dwarf those of Rep. Adam Putnam, R-Fla., who, as Republican Conference Chair, is seen as a potential Cantor rival in any leadership fight.

Beyond the spending, Cantor has taken other actions that could be seen as strategic moves to stand out from the Republican leadership circle, including:

-Creating and distributing a “Middle Class Bill of Rights” platform to give Republican candidates an economic message on which to campaign this year

-Traveling widely to help Republican candidates in tight races

-And during the Wall Street bailout debate, playing a leading role in crafting a Republican alternative plan seen as more friendly to taxpayers.

--Neil Simon

Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato has made his "last word -- almost" predictions in the presidential race.

With five days to go, Sabato says Obama will win every state John Kerry won in 2004 plus a bunch more -- including, Virginia and North Carolina.

And, he says Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina will lose her seat -- one of seven or eight he predicts to switch to the Democrats.

Here's his electoral map.

--Neil Simon

New numbers released by The Pew Hispanic Center this morning show that more Hispanics voters in Florida this year are registered as Democrats (513,252) than as Republicans (445,526).

As recently as 2006, the center said, the reverse was true: among Latino registered voters in Florida, more were Republican (414,185) than Democratic (369,906).

The new numbers reflect what political analysts have been saying is one of the key changing voter dynamics in Florida’s Hispanic community. The influx of immigrants from countries other than Cuba – Puerto Rico, Mexico, Colombia and Venezuela -- ar, a slowly diminishing relative weight of the Cuban-American vote in Florida, overall.

These new groups do not have the similar historic links to the Republican Party and are Florida’s Hispanic blocs into far more of a swing vote.

-- Billy House, Media General News Service

Woe be it to companies trying to sell products on the airwaves this week in a swing state.

I just flipped on the Today show in my hotel in Winston-Salem, N.C., where I'm covering the final week of the presidential race in this battleground state. This was the lineup for the last commercial break, in its entirety:

--An Obama ad
--A McCain ad
--An ad for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate
--An ad for the Republican gubernatorial candidate
--The SAME ad from the Democratic gubernatorial candidate
--An ad from the Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial candidate
--An ad from Sen. Elizabeth Dole

That's it. Just political ads. Is anyone paying any attention to these ads anymore?

And here's the last break:

--McCain ad
--State attorney general ad
--State treasurer ad
--Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., ad
--An anti-Dole ad

Another run of nothing but political ads. How will I know what to buy without helpful product ads? I pledge to go out and buy the next actual product advertised.

--Sean Mussenden

Wed, October 29, 2008 - 5:11 PM

Maverick is as maverick does. Sarah Palin iis marching to her own drum again.

Most candidates wait until they lose to assess their next move, but today, with the election just six days away, the Republican vice presidential nominee reportedly is looking ahead to the next presidential campaign.

ABC News is reporting that Palin told Elizabeth Vargas in an interview, she expects to be in the fray in 2012.

"I'm not doing this for naught," Palin said.

The interview will air Friday on "Good Morning America" and "20/20."

-- Marsha Mercer

Latest from TIME/CNN poll, among likely voters:

Colorado: Obama 53, McCain 45
Florida: Obama 51, McCain 47
Georgia: McCain 52, Obama 47
Missouri: McCain 50, Obama 48
Virginia: Obama 53, McCain 44

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation polling was conducted It was conducted Thursday through Tuesday; it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

-- Billy House, Media General News Service

A new ad from Sen. Elizabeth Dole has her opponent threatening legal action.

The ad says that a Massachusetts atheist held a "secret fundraiser" for Kay Hagan, Dole's opponent in the North Carolina race for the U.S. Senate. The ad asks what Hagan promised in return for the "godless money" and concludes with a woman's voice (which some have suggested is supposed to sound like Hagan) saying "There is no God!"

Hagan said she plans to pursue a cease and desist order demanding that Dole stop running the ad if the campaign doesn't do so on its own within 24 hours.

At an event in Winston-Salem today, Dole defended the ad. "This is factual. This is truthful," she said. "People need to know what the facts are."



-- Mark Young

Early voters line up Monday in Concord, N.C.

At this rate, no one will actually show up to vote on Election Day in North Carolina.

That’s a bit of an exaggeration. But so far more than 1.2 million people have already voted in North Carolina as of today. And so far, the numbers vastly favor Democrats – 771,000 to 396,109 Republicans.

If people were hoping to avoid long lines on Election Day, they’re not getting much of a reprieve. I stopped by several early voting sites in Cabarrus County, today, north of Charlotte, and found lines of an hour or two hours in a bitter mid-morning cold. This wasn’t even the pre-work, lunchtime or after-work rush.

Voters told me they felt a sense of urgency to get to the polls, given the excitement surrounding the election. Others wanted to make sure they had their say, in case they got busy on Election Day.

--Sean Mussenden

Long lines for voting in Georgia have prompted the state’s Democratic Party chair to ask for extended early voting.

Jane Kidd, in a letter sent Tuesday to Georgia Secretary of State Karen C. Handel, said the state is seemingly “unprepared for the wave of voters we all knew was coming.”

Kidd’s letter states:

“No one wants to see Georgia's failed processes become a national news story. But today, it is clear that we are in a crisis, and it is unclear even if there is enough time for the remaining four million-plus Georgia voters to cast their votes in an efficient and timely manner. With that in mind, and on behalf of the Democratic Party of Georgia, I urge you to contact the Department of Justice immediately and request clearance to keep the polls open longer during the week and over the weekend, as well as on Monday, November 3.”

Handel says in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that extending hours is unnecessary. Advance voting is scheduled to end Friday.

-- Amy Dominello

With six days to go before the presidential election, a new poll shows Republican Sen. John McCain moving closer to Democrat Barack Obama in Florida, but still trailing substantially in two other key states, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute says Obama leads McCain in Florida 47 percent to 45 percent; Quinnipiac last week had Obama leading 48 percent to 44 percent.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

The poll also has Obama up 51-42 percent in Ohio, compared to last week’s 52-38 lead in that state.

In Pennsylvania, Obama is ahead 53-41 percent, compared to 53-40 percent last week.

No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College.

-- Billy House, Media General News Service